Red clay deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau during 11.0–2.6?Ma and its implications for long-term evolution of East Asian monsoon

Loess and red clay on the Chinese Loess Plateau have produced a detailed history of the East Asia monsoon for the past eight million years. Recently, a well-conserved red clay sequence was discovered at Shilou on the eastern edge of Chinese Loess Plateau, extending the monsoon history back to approximately 11 Ma. By comparing lithologic features, particle size distribution, magnetic susceptibility and deposition rate of Shilou red clay sequence, the paleomonsoon evolution from 11 to 2.6 Ma can be divided into four stages: largely fluctuated stage (11.0–8.0 Ma), relatively strengthened period (8.0–6.5 Ma), extremely changed stage (6.5–4.9 Ma) and further intensified period (4.9–2.6 Ma). The new evidence indicates that variation of paleomonsoon has close relationship with uplifting of the Tibetan Plateau and ongoing global cooling and the consequent expansion of ice sheets during 11.0–2.6 Ma.     

Observational Study of a Peculiar Solar Limb Event Occurred on 11 January 2002

On 11 January 2002, using the Multi-channel Infrared Solar Spectrograph (MISS) at the Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO), we obtained Hα, Ca ii 8542 Å and He i 10?830 Å spectra and slit-jaw Hα images of a peculiar solar limb event. A close resemblance of its intensity to that of a small flare and the GOES X-ray flux indicates that it was an active prominence. However, its morphological evolution and velocity variation were different from general typical active prominences, such as limb flares, post-flare loops, surges and sprays. It started with the ejection of material from the flare site. In the early phase, the ejecta was as bright as a limb flare and kept rising until reaching the height of (8????10)×10⁴ km at an almost constant velocity of 91.7 km? s ^?1 with its lower part always connected to the solar surface. EUV images in 195 Å show similar structure as in the Hα line, indicating the coexistence of plasmas with temperatures differing by more than two orders of magnitude. Later some material started to fall back to another bright area on the solar surface. The falling material did not show the collimated structure of surges or the arc structure of flaring arches. A red-shift velocity of more than 200 km? s ^?1 was detected in a bright point close to the outer edge of the closed loop system formed later, which dispersed in a few minutes and became a part of the newly formed large loop. The ejected material did not leave the sun, indicating that the magnetic reconnection was not sufficient to remove the overlying field lines during the process. The spectral line profiles showed large widths and variable velocities, and therefore the line-pair method is not applicable to this event for the estimation of physical parameters.     

几种统计预测方法对1998年南京降水的跨季节预测试验及分析

对1998年南京降水分别设计并开展了求和自回归滑动平均（Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）模型预测、经验模态分解（Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD）预测和基于Hilbert变换（HilbertTransformation,HT）的幅频分离预测等3种跨季节统计预测试验。结果表明：ARIMA模型预测结果存在明显的系统性误差且对夏季的降水突变现象预测困难;EMD分解预测的结果虽在降水演变趋势上有明显提高,但仍未能预测出夏季的强降水突变现象,究其原因可能是对高频分量预测效果不好所致;而基于Hilbert变换的幅频分离预测方法能够对各模态分量的瞬时频率和瞬时振幅实施隔离预测,消除两者的相互影响,显著改善高频模态的预测效果,使得最终预测结果最为理想,不仅具有最高的趋势相关性和最小的偏差,而且还较好地预测出了夏季两次强降水过程。不仅如此,在对2003年的降水预测验证中,基于Hilbert变换的幅频分离预测方法同样具有最好的预测效果,表明该方法预测效果较为稳定,为改进跨季节短期气候统计预测技术提供了一个新思路。     

我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析

利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCCAR4)的15个耦合气候模式在不同排放情景下的模拟结果,对我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场的未来时空变化特征与模式之间的不确定性作了研究。结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,我国夏季降水表现出较强的局地特征。其中,我国东部和高原地区的降水在21世纪表现出明显的增加趋势,而且这种趋势随着变暖的加剧而增强,同时模式模拟结果之间的一致性也更好,表明这一结果的可信度较高。在全球变暖背景下,我国新疆南部地区表现为持续的降水减少趋势,而我国西南地区夏季降水的变化则呈现出先减少(21世纪初)后增加的特征,不同模式对降水这些局地特征的模拟也都表现出较好的一致性。其他地区夏季降水在21世纪的变化不大,同时模式模拟的一致性也较差。多模式模拟的我国未来百年夏季降水的这些变化特征在温室气体高、中、低不同排放情景下基本一致,A2情景预估结果变化最大,A1B次之,B1相对最小。东亚夏季大气环流场的预估结果显示,在全球变暖的背景下,大部分模式的模拟结果都表明,东亚夏季风环流有所增强,从而使得由低纬度大洋和南海地区向我国大陆的水汽输送增加,造成该地区大气含水量的增多,从而为我国东部地区夏季降水的增加提供有利条件。此外,随着全球变暖的加剧,西太平洋副热带高压持续增强,其变化对我国东部地区夏季降水的影响程度和范围也明显增大。这些环流场及其不确定性的分析结果进一步加强了我国夏季降水未来变化预估结果的可信度。     

Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response(e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.     

改进的超级集成预报方法在长江三角洲地区O3预报中的应用

针对当前单模式系统臭氧（O₃）预报的不确定性问题,提出了一种基于活动区间的多模式超级集成的、高效的预报方法。本研究基于长江三角洲（长三角）地区多模式空气质量预报系统,将改进后的超级集成预报方法（AR-SUP）运用到2015年长三角地区的O₃预报中,并与滑动训练期的超级集成预报（R-SUP）、多模式集成平均预报（EMN）、消除偏差的集成平均预报（BREM）对比,结果表明AR-SUP对预报效果的改善最明显,其在暖季和冷季的均方根误差（RMSE）较最优单模式平均下降了20%和23%。将AR-SUP运用到48 h和72 h预报中发现,当预报时效增加时该方法依旧保持较高的预报技巧。多项统计数据均证明AR-SUP在研究时段内所有站点均能显著减小O₃预报误差、提高整体相关性和一致性,有效提高当前短期（三天）预报准确率。     

基于改进PSO-SVM的噪声稳健建筑物变形监测方法

对高层、超高层建筑物进行实时,高精度的变形监测对提前预防安全隐患,保证人民生命财产安全具有重要意义.建筑物变形作为一种典型的随机性和微弱性过程,噪声等误差的存在会影响从中提取有用的变形信息.针对该问题,提出一种改进粒子群(ParticleSwarmOptimization,PSO)算法优化支持向量机(SupportVe...     

Determination of trace and rare-earth elements in Chinese soil and clay reference materials by ICP-MS

Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS) has become a powerful tool for providing reliable analytical results in many laboratories around the word. In this study, the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids in high-temperature and high-pressure closed-vessel digestion technique were used to decompose some Chinese reference materials, and thirty seven elements were determined by ICP-MS. Most of the results for Chinese soil reference materials were found to be in reasonable agreement with the reference values, except Cs, Ta, Li, Ge, Zn, Nd, Tb and Ta whose values need to be revised. Their precisions were typically lower than 5% RSD. However, the Precisions of Chinese clay reference materials, especially for GBW03102 and GBW03102a, were significantly different with reference values, probably reflecting the existence of a coarser-grained fraction(70 μm) in samples, and the formation of fluorides in Al-rich samples during sample decomposition by using the mixture of HF and HNO3 acids. Moreover, thirty-seven trace elements covering the mass range from Li to U in four Chinese clay reference materials were firstly provided with good precision and accuracy in this study.     

不同降雨条件下黄土高原浅层滑坡危险性预测评价

黄土地区浅层滑坡发育非常广泛,由于其具有分布规律性差、前期变形迹象小、分布范围大、面小点多等特征,目前还无法进行有效预测,因此给黄土地区工程安全带来严重威胁。根据无限边坡模型,结合降雨入渗-土体强度衰减规律和GIS（地理信息系统）技术,构建了不同降雨条件下黄土地区浅层滑坡发育危险性评价模型,并将该评价模型应用到延河一级支流幸福川流域,预测在有效降雨量30、50、100、200 mm条件下,该流域浅层滑坡发育程度,并与当前较为流行的SINMAP模型(地形稳定性模型)进行对比。结果表明：①不稳定和潜在不稳定浅层滑坡主要分布在末级河流的两侧和源头,稳定和较稳定区域主要分布在一级河流河道两侧和塬面上;通过对比分析,SINMAP模型计算的结果与本文建立的模型在降雨强度30 mm时的计算结果较为一致。②在本文建立的模型评价结果中,随着有效降雨量的增加,F_s（稳定性系数）<1.00的不稳定区域所占比例逐渐增加,从30 mm的1.12%到200 mm的4.79%;相反,稳定区域则出现逐渐减少的趋势。③根据已发生灾害点的分布,随着有效降雨量的增加,研究区域已发生的灾害点分布在F_s<1.25的比例明显增加,从30 mm的62%到200 mm的88%,在SINMAP评价模型中,研究区域已发生的灾害点的64%分布在不稳定和潜在不稳定区域内,说明本文所建立的评价模型具有一定的精度。通过与SINMAP评价模型对比,本文建立的模型主要采用基于降雨入渗规律,而SINMAP评价模型主要基于降雨汇流过程,因此在利用过程中应根据区域特征选择利用。