Seismic prediction method of multiscale fractured reservoir

Common prestack fracture prediction methods cannot clearly distinguish multiplescale fractures. In this study, we propose a prediction method for macro- and mesoscale fractures based on fracture density distribution in reservoirs. First, we detect the macroscale fractures (larger than 1/4 wavelength) using the multidirectional coherence technique that is based on the curvelet transform and the mesoscale fractures (1/4–1/100 wavelength) using the seismic azimuthal anisotropy technique and prestack attenuation attributes, e.g., frequency attenuation gradient. Then, we combine the obtained fracture density distributions into a map and evaluate the variably scaled fractures. Application of the method to a seismic physical model of a fractured reservoir shows that the method overcomes the problem of discontinuous fracture density distribution generated by the prestack seismic azimuthal anisotropy method, distinguishes the fracture scales, and identifies the fractured zones accurately.     

Momentum- and Heat-Flux Parametrization at Dome C,Antarctica: A Sensitivity Study

An extensive meteorological observational dataset at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, enabled estimation of the sensitivity of surface momentum and sensible heat fluxes to aerodynamic roughness length and atmospheric stability in this region. Our study reveals that (1) because of the preferential orientation of snow micro-reliefs (sastrugi), the aerodynamic roughness length \(z_{0}\) varies by more than two orders of magnitude depending on the wind direction; consequently, estimating the turbulent fluxes with a realistic but constant \(z_{0}\) of 1 mm leads to a mean friction velocity bias of \(24\,\%\) in near-neutral conditions; (2) the dependence of the ratio of the roughness length for heat \(z_{0t}\) to \(z_{0}\) on the roughness Reynolds number is shown to be in reasonable agreement with previous models; (3) the wide range of atmospheric stability at Dome C makes the flux very sensitive to the choice of the stability functions; stability function models presumed to be suitable for stable conditions were evaluated and shown to generally underestimate the dimensionless vertical temperature gradient; as these models differ increasingly with increases in the stability parameter z / L, heat flux and friction velocity relative differences reached \(100\,\%\) when \(z/L > 1\); (4) the shallowness of the stable boundary layer is responsible for significant sensitivity to the height of the observed temperature and wind data used to estimate the fluxes. Consistent flux results were obtained with atmospheric measurements at heights up to 2 m. Our sensitivity study revealed the need to include a dynamical parametrization of roughness length over Antarctica in climate models and to develop new parametrizations of the surface fluxes in very stable conditions, accounting, for instance, for the divergence in both radiative and turbulent fluxes in the first few metres of the boundary layer.     

A multi-isotope approach (O,H, C,S, B and Sr) to understand the source of water and solutes in some the thermal springs from West Coast geothermal area,India

The West Coast belt, consisting of nearly 60 thermal springs, is one of the most diversified geothermal fields in India. The present work describes the multi-isotopic (O, H, C, S, B and Sr) characterization of thermal waters carried out in the Tural-Rajwadi geothermal field, situated in southern sector of the west coast geothermal area. The aim of this study is to delineate the origin of thermal water as well as to ascertain the sources of carbon, sulphur, boron and strontium dissolved in those thermal springs. The stable isotopes (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) and tritium data indicate that these thermal springs are not recently recharged rain water rather, it contains very old component of water. Oxygen-18 shift is observed due to rock-water interaction over a long period of time. Carbon isotopic composition of DIC points out to the silicate weathering with soil CO₂ coming from C₃ type of plants whereas δ³⁴S of dissolved sulphate confirms the marine origin of sulphate. This marine signature is basically derived from paleo-seawater possibly entrapped within the flows. Boron isotopic data reveals that both the seawater and rock dissolution are the sources of boron in the thermal waters whereas high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7220–0.7512) of the thermal waters conclusively establishes that archean granitic basement is the predominant rock source of strontium, not the Deccan flood basalts. In addition, like strontium, concentrations of lithium, rubidium and caesium are also governed by the rock-water interaction. Thus, the combined use of this multi-isotope technique coupled with trace element concentrations proves to be an effective tool to establish the sources of solutes in the thermal water.     

Transformation between surface spherical harmonic expansion of arbitrary high degree and order and double Fourier series on sphere

In order to accelerate the spherical harmonic synthesis and/or analysis of arbitrary function on the unit sphere, we developed a pair of procedures to transform between a truncated spherical harmonic expansion and the corresponding two-dimensional Fourier series. First, we obtained an analytic expression of the sine/cosine series coefficient of the \(4 \pi \) fully normalized associated Legendre function in terms of the rectangle values of the Wigner d function. Then, we elaborated the existing method to transform the coefficients of the surface spherical harmonic expansion to those of the double Fourier series so as to be capable with arbitrary high degree and order. Next, we created a new method to transform inversely a given double Fourier series to the corresponding surface spherical harmonic expansion. The key of the new method is a couple of new recurrence formulas to compute the inverse transformation coefficients: a decreasing-order, fixed-degree, and fixed-wavenumber three-term formula for general terms, and an increasing-degree-and-order and fixed-wavenumber two-term formula for diagonal terms. Meanwhile, the two seed values are analytically prepared. Both of the forward and inverse transformation procedures are confirmed to be sufficiently accurate and applicable to an extremely high degree/order/wavenumber as \(2^{30}\,{\approx }\,10^9\). The developed procedures will be useful not only in the synthesis and analysis of the spherical harmonic expansion of arbitrary high degree and order, but also in the evaluation of the derivatives and integrals of the spherical harmonic expansion.     

Ground-Based Observations of the Thermodynamic and Kinematic Properties of Lake-Breeze Fronts in Southern Manitoba,Canada

The effects on the convective boundary layer (CBL) of shading due to shallow cumulus clouds are investigated. The main question is to see whether clouds are able to produce secondary circulations by shading of the surface (dynamic heterogeneities) and how these dynamic heterogeneities interact with static heterogeneities in terms of the production of secondary circulations. Also the effects of cloud shadows on cloud-field characteristics are analyzed. The effects are studied using large-eddy simulations of a cloud-topped CBL with an idealized surface. Over a homogeneous surface, shadows trigger secondary circulations with different strengths depending on the solar zenith angle \(\vartheta \), with large \(\vartheta \) favouring the development of secondary circulations. Over a static heterogeneous surface with a simple striped pattern, the strength of secondary circulations is effectively reduced by dynamic heterogeneities at small \(\vartheta \). At large \(\vartheta \), however, the effect on secondary circulations depends on the orientation of the striped static heterogeneities to the shadow-casting direction of the clouds. The influence of shadows is only small if they are cast perpendicular to the striped heterogeneity, but if stripes and the shadow-casting direction are parallel, secondary circulations are reduced in strength also for large \(\vartheta \). Shadow effects on the cloud-field characteristics vary with \(\vartheta \) as well. The results show that small \(\vartheta \) favours the development of small clouds with a reduced lifetime while large \(\vartheta \) promotes the development of larger clouds with an extended lifetime compared to non-shading clouds.     

Sedimentary Deposits from the 17 July 2006 Western Java Tsunami,Indonesia: Use of Grain Size Analyses to Assess Tsunami Flow Depth,Speed, and Traction Carpet Characteristics

The 2006 western Java tsunami deposited a discontinuous sheet of sand up to 20 cm thick, flooded coastal southern Java to a depth of at least 8 m and inundated up to 1 km inland. In most places the primarily heavy mineral sand sheet is normally graded, and in some it contains complex internal stratigraphy. Structures within the sand sheet probably record the passage of up to two individual waves, a point noted in eyewitness accounts. We studied the 2006 tsunami deposits in detail along a flow parallel transect about 750 m long, 15 km east of Cilacap. The tsunami deposit first becomes discernable from the underlying sediment 70 m from the shoreline. From 75 to 300 m inland the deposit has been laid down in rice paddies, and maintains a thickness of 10–20 cm. Landward of 300 m the deposit thins dramatically, reaching 1 mm by 450 m inland. From 450 m to the edge of deposition (around 700 m inland) the deposit remains <1 mm thick. Deposition generally attended inundation—along the transect, the tsunami deposited sand to within about 40 m of the inundation limit. The thicker part of the deposit contains primarily sand indistinguishable from that found on the beach 3 weeks after the event, but after about 450 m (and roughly coinciding with the decrease in thickness) the tsunami sediment shifts to become more like the underlying paddy soil than the beach sand. Grain sizes within the deposit tend to fine upward and landward, although overall upward fining takes place in two discrete pulses, with an initial section of inverse grading followed by a section of normal grading. The two inversely graded sections are also density graded, with denser grains at the base, and less dense grains at the top. The two normally graded sections show no trends in density. The inversely graded sections show high density sediment to the base and become less dense upward and represents traction carpet flows at the base of the tsunami. These are suggestive of high shear rates in the flow. Because of the grain sorting in the traction carpet, the landward-fining trends usually seen in tsunami deposits are masked, although lateral changes of mean sediment grain size along the transect do show overall landward fining, with more variation as the deposit tapers off. The deposit is also thicker in the more seaward portions than would be produced by tsunamis lacking traction carpets.     

Comparative study of different wavelets for developing parsimonious Volterra model for rainfall-runoff simulation

Although the Volterra models are non-parsimonious ones, they are being used because they can mimic dynamics of complex systems. However, applying and identification of the Volterra models using data may result in overfitting problem and uncertainty. In this investigation we evaluate capability of different wavelet forms for decomposing and compressing the Volterra kernels in order to overcome this problem by reducing the number of the model coefficients to be estimated and generating smooth kernels. A simulation study on a rainfall?runoff process over the Cache River watershed showed that the method performance is successful due to multi-resolution capacity of the wavelet analysis and high capability of the Volterra model. The results also revealed that db2 and sym2 wavelets have the same high potential in improving the linear Volterra model performance. However, QS wavelet was more successful in yielding smooth kernels. Moreover, the probability of overfitting while identifying the nonlinear Volterra model may be less than the linear model.     

Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model

Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data, including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km². The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales.     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity I: the continuous in time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a continuous in-time setting for a strictly positive constrained specific storage coefficient. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation, and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.