森林火险气象指数的应用研究

利用全国575个国家级基本气象站1971年1月1日至2005年5月31日的气象观测资料, 选用了5种已得到国际普遍认可或我国国家级预警业务中使用的森林火险气象指数计算方法, 计算了我国长序列的历史逐日森林火险气象指数, 并对这些指数在我国的实际使用效果进行对比分析和应用研究。结果表明: I_FFD, I_NMC, I_N, I_MN指数可在我国大范围推广使用 (除长江中下游及附近地区), 其中以I_FFD指数总体应用效果最好, I_MN指数次之。     

气象科技论文中表格的规范化

气象信息资源是国家的基础性自然资源、战略性经济资源和公共性社会资源。大力提高气象信息产品的质量,提高气象信息服务的能力水平是气象事业的崇高责任。本文通过分析气象信息对经济社会发展的重要意义、影响气象信息传播利用的主要因素等,提出提高气象信息服务水平的对策建议,即不断拓宽气象信息服务领域;开发气象信息资源,增加气象信息产品;提高气象信息服务质量,改善气象信息服务手段。     

北京汉石桥湿地植物群落优势种的种间关系研究

在对汉石桥湿地植物群落调查的基础上,选取19个优势种,采用χ^2检验、Jaccard关联指数和Spearman秩相关分析进行了湿地植物群落种间关系研究。结果表明：汉石桥湿地植物群落优势种群间多呈负关联,显著和极显著关联种对数量少;Spearman秩相关分析结果优于χ^2检验;根据分析结果将19个优势物种划分为水生植物种组、湿生植物种组和中生植物种组3个生态种组,同一生态种组内种群的生态要求和对资源的利用方式类似,不同生态种组间种群关系相对较为松散。     

Economic sustainability of China’s growth from the perspective of its resource and environmental supply system: National scale modeling and policy analysis

Since the implementation of the economic reform and opening up policy in 1978,China has miraculously created long-term high-speed economic growth,but has also had to face the problem of excessive consumption of resources as well as an intensification of en-vironmental pollution.As a result,China is now facing a slowdown in development.China must maintain a certain speed of development to realize its goal of being a powerful nation,and becoming a developed country by 2050.To this end,China is facing a transformation of its economic development.There is a need to agree on an expected economic growth rate,along with the corresponding development modes or means of regulation in the medium-and long-term periods.This study developed a systematic-dynamic model to simulate the cou-pling relationship between economic growth,development modes,and the environmental supply system,and explored the possible options for future economic growth as well as the resource use and environmental protection requirements (the main factors).The results showed that to achieve the development goal of becoming a developed country by 2050,while maintaining a good ecological environment,the suitable growth rate for China's econ-omy is 3.8％-6.3％.Within this range,a growth rate of 3.8％-4.4％ was found to be relatively safe,while a growth rate of 4.4％-6.3％ required further technical progress.This study pro-vides an early warning in regard to China's environmental and development status.The study was a response to the "Future Earth" framework document and,in terms of development speed,it developed a theoretical system for the determination of resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC).     

萨拉乌苏河流域高分辨率的沙丘砂常量元素分布指示的全新世寒冷事件

The components of the primary elements in the dune sands for the MGS1 subsection of the Milanggouwan section in the Salawusu River valley, compared with those of modern dune sands, show that they were caused by East Asian winter monsoon in the Mu Us desert during Holocene. The examined ages for the 11 layers of dune sands, based on the average sedimentary rate, are： 0 to 960, 1350-2240, 2470 to 3530, 4000 to 4180, 4290 to 4350, 4380 to 4760, 5040 to 5920, 6570 to 8270, 9020 to 9700, 9880 to 10160 and 10580 to 11080 a BP, respectively. The climatic events indicated by these dune sands are consistent with those records in the Huguangyan volcanic lake, Zoige peat bog, Hulu cave and Dunde ice core, particularly with the climatic fluctuations of the North Atlantic since 11 000 a BP. Among them, patterns from B0 to B8 correspond to the peak values of 0MD, 2D, 4D, 6D＋8D＋10D, 12D, 14D, 16D, 18D and 20D respectively. It might be caused by the North Atlantic ice age induced by the heat circulation, which strengthened the polar high pressure and Siberian-Mongolian high pressure and further led to the dominance of the winter monsoon over China＇s desert area.     

近5年青海省植被覆盖变化的遥感监测

This paper used five years （2001-2006） time series of MODIS NDVI images with a 1-km spatial resolution to produce a land cover map of Qinghai Province in China. A classification approach for different land cover types with special emphasis on vegetation, especially on sparse vegetation, was developed which synthesized Decision Tree Classification, Supervised Classification and Unsupervised Classification. The spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in Qinghai from 2001 to 2006 were analyzed based on the land cover classification map and five grade elevation belts derived from Qinghai DEM. The result shows that vegetation cover in Qinghai in recent five years has been some improved and the area of vegetation was increased from 370,047 km^2 in 2001 to 374,576 km^2 in 2006. Meanwhile, vegetation cover ratio was increased by 0.63%. Vegetation cover ratio in high mountain belt is the largest （67.92%） among the five grade elevation belts in Qinghai Province. The second largest vegetation cover ratio is in middle mountain belt （61.80%）. Next, in the order of the decreasing vegetation cover ratio, the remaining grades are extreme high mountain belt （38.98%）, low mountain belt （25.55%） and flat region belt （15.46%）. The area of middle density grassland in high mountain belt is the biggest （94,003 km^2）, and vegetation cover ratio of dense grassland in middle mountain belt is the highest （32.62%）, and the increased area of dense grassland in high mountain belt is the greatest （1280 km^2）. In recent five years the conversion from sparse grass to middle density grass in high mountain belt has been the largest vegetation cover variation and the converted area is 15931 km^2.     

基于走航高频监测的水库冬季水体溶解甲烷浓度分布:以湖北西北口水库为例

水库是大气甲烷(CH4)的重要来源之一,但目前对水库(尤其是河道型水库)中溶解CH_4浓度及释放潜力的空间异质性的认识仍不足.为揭示河道型水库冬季溶解CH_4浓度的分布规律,于2020年1月在湖北宜昌黄柏河流域内西北口水库采用自主研发的新型快速水—气平衡装置(FaRAGE)连接便携式温室气体分析仪,开展了水体溶解CH4浓度的连续走航式监测及断面垂向监测.根据溶解CH4从库尾至库首的浓度变化可以将水库分为3段:距回水末端1 km内为快速降低段,溶解CH4浓度范围为0.117～0.233 μmol/L;1～6 km内为缓慢降低段,CH4浓度范围为0.055～0.117 μmol/L;6～13km范围内为浓度平稳段,CH4浓度范围为0.039～0.080 μmd/L.整体上,水库表层水体溶解CH_4浓度与表层水温、水深及距回水末端的距离呈显著负相关关系(r=-0.77、-0.89、-0.81;P0.01),与叶绿素a浓度、溶解氧浓度呈显著正相关性(r=0.95、0.97;P0.01).基于当月平均风速,采用薄边界层法估算了上述3段区域的DH_4扩散通量,分别为(0.023±0.004)、(0.012±0.003)、(0.007±0.001) mg/(m~2·h).西北口水库在冬季表现为向大气释放CH_4的"源",且由于溶解CH_4浓度分布不均而表现出较强的空间差异性.     

基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法

准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1～5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%～3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%～4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。     

河南一次特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征分析

利用郑州714CD多普勒天气雷达探测资料，结合河南省地面逐时雨量、风场、郑州探空、省区域小图等资料，对2000年7月5－6日发生在新乡、郑州、开封、许昌等地区的特大暴雨过程进行了成因分析，揭示出此次特大暴雨过程具有典型的中尺度扰动及强对流特征。     

柴达木贝壳堤剖面元素地球化学与环境演变

通过对柴达木盆地察尔汗古湖贝壳堤沉积物中酸溶与残留(酸不溶)组分中常、微量元素及其元素对的分析,并结合酸溶与残留组分中常、微量元素相关性对比,讨论了贝壳堤剖面元素地球化学指标和沉积环境之间的关系,指出酸溶组分中的常量、微量元素及其元素对可以作为湖泊和古气候演化良好的代用指标;残留组分中的元素及元素对与原岩及其风化程度紧密相关,因此,酸溶组分与残留组分中的常量和微量元素在对于环境响应模式存在一定差异,应该将二者分开研究以避免对元素所携带环境信号解译的偏差。根据元素地球化学指标重建了43.5～22.4cal.kaB.P.(39.7～17.5kaB.P.¹⁴C年代)柴达木盆地察尔汗古湖高湖面期间古气候与环境演变过程:43.5～31.7kaB.P.期间酸溶组分中元素含量总体较低,残留组分中元素含量相对较高,且湿润度值((Fe₂O₃+Al₂O₃)/(MgO+CaO),或H)处于高值段,而Ca/Mg,Fe/Mn和Rb/Sr则处于低值段,指示了温暖湿润的气候环境,古湖泊水体增加;其中37.8～31.7kaB.P.期间酸溶组分中元素含量多出现最低值,残留组分中元素含量富集,H值较高,而Ca/Mg,Fe/Mn和Rb/Sr此段均值最小,表明此时为环境的最适宜期,此期间降雨充沛,湖泊处于高湖面;在31.7～22.4kaB.P.期间酸溶组分中元素含量普遍较高,残留组分中元素含量相对富集,且Ca/Mg,Fe/Mn和Rb/Sr处于高值段波动,H值处在低值段,指示气候环境恶化,降水逐渐减少,古湖泊水体萎缩;在约22.4kaB.P.气候快速恶化,形成石盐结晶,高湖面历史结束。柴达木盆地该期高湖面及其演化过程可与腾格里沙漠和额济纳盆地-巴丹吉林沙漠高湖面记录进行对比,揭示了大范围气候变化的历史。