多边形统计数据空间分析的不确定性研究——以北京市海淀区人口普查数据为例

普查数据是地理学空间分析的重要数据源。由于受到数据与计算机处理能力的限制,以往的研究对普查数据空间分析的不确定性未给予足够重视,也未形成成熟的研究方法。在建筑物单元的人口普查数据支持下,本文基于多边形统计数据的可塑面积单元问题(Modifiable areal unit problem,MAUP)特征,设计了一种该类数据空间分析不确定性的研究方法,采用不同的尺度(Scale)及分区(Zoning)系统对多边形的统计数据空间分析的准确性进行了分析。实验引入尺度与形态指数,利用可视化分析和数据拟合的研究方法,对尺度及分区对空间分析结果的影响模式进行了模拟。研究结果表明:(1)以统计小区的空间分析,其结果受统计小区空间形态的影响较大,不确定性强,不能充分反映统计数据本身的空间特征;(2)规则格网能较好地保持原始统计数据的空间分布特征,但仍然受尺度及分区影响;(3)规则格网的空间分析结果及其准确性与尺度有较好的拟合关系,不同尺度下的分析结果不确定性是原始数据不同尺度特征的体现;(4)分区效应受空间分析方法的计算尺度影响,两者共同对空间分析结果产生影响。对于固定尺度的规则格网,其邻接多边形数目是分析结果不确定的主要原因。本文研究结果表明,在多边形统计数据空间分析时,应该对其使用规则格网重新聚合,并根据实际应用的需求选择多尺度分析方法,以达到实际应用目的。     

西安国贸大厦沉降监测方案设计与数据综合分析

本文对西安国贸大厦沉降监测技术方案进行了讨论,着重结合有关工程地质资料对沉降进行了几何分析和物理分析,探讨了沉降引发的原因及建筑物变形规律     

无线电磁法(WEM)在地球物理勘探中的初步应用

无线电磁法(WEM)是上世纪90年代发展起来的一种新的人工源电磁探测技术,它通过一个固定大功率发射台发射0.1~300 Hz超低频/极低频电磁信号来探测地下地质结构.国内对WEM法的应用已做了大量的理论和实际试验工作,例如,大功率发射台辐射的电磁场计算,不同距离电磁信号发射接收试验,油田深部结构探测试验等.从试验的结果看,WEM法在提高电磁测深数据质量上具有很大的优势.     

地震期间电离层扰动现象研究

介绍了大量的关于地震电离层扰动现象研究的最新进展,研究表明地震发生前的几天或者几个小时电离层扰动被观测到,电离层前兆是确实存在.但要将震前的电离层扰动作为地震短临预报的工具,还有许多值得我们去深入研究和解决的问题.应用空间技术开展大区域范围内电离层参数的实时观测,如用地震电磁卫星、GPS台网、并和地面电离层垂测仪观测相结合,建立“电离层地震前兆监测系统”,无疑会加速这项研究的进程.     

Impoverishment of recent floodplain forest mollusc fauna in the lower Ohře River (Czech Republic) as a result of prehistoric human impact

Analyses of fossil mollusc successions have rarely been used to study the development of floodplain forests during the Holocene. The Oh?e River, located in a prehistorically settled chernozem area in the Czech Republic, is partly situated in Cretaceous marlstones, yielding sediments suitable for fossilization directly in floodplain deposits. We analysed five fossil mollusc successions situated in the lower stretch of the Oh?e River and compared the results with recent mollusc assemblages studied along the entire 256 km of the river. Fossil samples were composed mostly of open‐country species throughout the Holocene or the whole preserved succession. Only some samples also contained woodland assemblages, but these were always greatly impoverished, with a very low frequency of strictly woodland species. Although the natural‐looking appearance of the present‐day floodplain forests of the lower river stretch has resulted in its being declared a nature reserve, modern floodplain forest mollusc assemblages there are also impoverished. This reduction in the distribution of strictly woodland species compared with modern assemblages in the upper stretch of the river seems to be the result of an ancient human settlement and continuous disturbances of the floodplain forest development since the Neolithic. Thus, fully developed floodplain forest assemblages occur recently only in the upper non‐impacted stretch of the river. Based on the studied fossil successions we can conclude that the lower Oh?e River floodplain was probably a mosaic of open and disturbed forest habitats throughout the Holocene. This area is part of a central European landscape island, where forests probably never fully developed and open patches from the early Holocene continually developed into an agricultural landscape.     

Anticipating the effects of groundwater withdrawal on seawater intrusion and soil settlement in urban coastal areas

Intensive pumping in urban coastal areas is a common threat to water resource quality due to seawater intrusion. In those areas where subsurface water resources are not usually used for human consumption or irrigation, intensive pumping is associated with other activities like the lowering of the water table necessary to support underground structures and building foundations. This activity also increases the likelihood of soil settlement that affects building stability and the corrosion of concrete structures due to groundwater salinity. Under these circumstances, the awareness of a certain municipality (Calonge, NE Spain) of the potential effects of groundwater withdrawal upon foundations has led to an integrated approach to anticipate seawater intrusion related to urban development. Geological mapping and correlation of borehole logs, electrical resistivity tomography, and hydrochemical data provide comprehensive knowledge of the geology and hydrogeology of the area and act as screening tools necessary to discern the influence of hydrological processes in coastal areas. Developing Strack's analytical solution, new comprehensive, dimensionless expressions are herein derived to determine the critical pumping rate necessary to prevent seawater intrusion, as well as to reproduce the evolution of the wedge toe and the water table stagnation point under different withdrawal rates. Furthermore, the Dupuit–Forchheimer well discharge formula allows the estimation of the effects of the water table lowering due to such critical pumping in the surrounding building foundations. Field data from the Calonge coastal plain illustrate this approach and provide assessment criteria for future urban development and planning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of a tidal river under influence of wading engineering groups

By taking the Yong River for example in this paper, based on the multiple measured data during 1957 to 2009, the change process of runoff, tide feature, tidal wave, tidal influx and sediment transport are analyzed. Then a mathematical model is used to reveal the influence mechanism on hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of the wading engineering groups such as a tide gate, a breakwater, reservoirs, bridges and wharves, which were built in different periods. The results showed the hydrodynamic characteristics and sediment transport of the Yong River changed obviously due to the wading engineering groups. The tide gate induced deformation of the tidal wave, obvious reduction of the tidal influx and weakness of the tidal dynamic, decrease of the sediment yield of flood and ebb tide and channel deposition. The breakwater blocked estuarine entrances, resulting in the change of the tidal current and the reduction of the tidal influx in the estuarine area. The large-scale reservoirs gradually made the decrease of the Yong River runoff. The bridge and wharf groups took up cross-section areas, the cumulative affection of which caused the increase of tidal level in the tidal river.     

Long-term variation of the semi-annual wave maxima in geomagnetic activity

Summary The time variations of the amplitudes and phases of the semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity, characterized by the linear planetary index aa, have been analysed for the period 1868–1985. The results provide qualitative confirmation of Murayama's conclusions [13] about the systematic f phase in dependence on the changes in the level of solar activity and give support to Russel-McPherron's mechanism [16] concerning the effect of the predominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. A distinctly expressed variation of the phase differences in the course of the sunspot cycle and of the 22-year cycle, and specific variations related to the sequence of four consecutive cycles have been established, as well as a well-defined 90-year period, all of them as a reflection of analogous variations in solar activity. The variations of the phase differences observed around the equinoxes can be explained by the combined effect of the mechanisms of the axial and equinoctial hypothesis. It is assumed that a displacement of the maxima of the semi-annual variation to dates after the equinoxes will be observed in the ascending parts and a reverse displacement towards the equinoxes and earlier dates in the desccending parts of the following sunspot cycles 22 nad 23.On leave from the Geophysical Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Akad. G. Bonchev Str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria.     

Strato-mesospheric ozone and IMF sector boundary

Summary We find no effect of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF) sector boundary crossing in ozone at altitudes ranging from the middle stratosphere(10 hPa) to the lower mesosphere(0.4 hPa) at middle latitudes(40°–60° N), based on winter data over the period of December 1979–December 1982.

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Резюме Мы не нaшлu нuкaко о эффекma nересеченuя секmорноŭ рaнuцы межnлaнеmно о мa нumно о nоля в озоне в облaсmu высоm меж?rt;у сре?rt;неŭ сmрamосфероŭ(10 Пa) u нuжнеŭ мезосфероŭ(0,4 Пa) нa сре?rt;нuх шuроmaх(40°–60° с.ш.), nрuменяя зuмнuе ?rt;aнные зa nерuо?rt; ?rt;екaбрь 1979 – ?rt;екaбрь 1982 .