Historical changes in the traditional agrarian systems of Burundi: endogenous drive to survive from food insecurity

GeoJournal - The global farming conditions have gone profound mutations that steadily increased vulnerability among smallholder farmers. As consequence, rural households have set mechanisms of...     

What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology? Discussion of “Prediction in a socio-hydrological world”*

ABSTRACT

Srinivasan et al. provide an interesting overview of the challenges for long-term socio-hydrological predictions. Although agreeing with most of the statements made, we argue for the need to take socio-hydrological analysis a step further and add some fundamental considerations, especially concerning the crucial importance of many (conscious and unconscious) assumptions made upfront of the modelling exercise. Eventual assumptions of technological determinism need correction: Models are not “value-free”, but uncertain, subjective and a product of the society in which they were shaped. It is important to acknowledge this uncertainty and bias when making decisions based on socio-hydrological models, considering also that these models are “social and political actors” in and by themselves. Furthermore, socio-hydrological models require a transdisciplinary approach, since physical water availability is only one of the boundary conditions for society. Last but not least, interaction with stakeholders remains important to enable understanding of what the variable of interest is.     

Landscape Evolution Modelling of naturally dammed rivers

Natural damming of upland river systems, such as landslide or lava damming, occurs worldwide. Many dams fail shortly after their creation, while other dams are long‐lived and therefore have a long‐term impact on fluvial and landscape evolution. This long‐term impact is still poorly understood and landscape evolution modelling (LEM) can increase our understanding of different aspects of this response. Our objective was to simulate fluvial response to damming, by monitoring sediment redistribution and river profile evolution for a range of geomorphic settings. We used LEM LAPSUS, which calculates runoff erosion and deposition and can deal with non‐spurious sinks, such as dam‐impounded areas. Because fluvial dynamics under detachment‐limited and transport‐limited conditions are different, we mimicked these conditions using low and high erodibility settings, respectively. To compare the relative impact of different dam types, we evaluated five scenarios for each landscape condition: one scenario without a dam and four scenarios with dams of increasing erodibility. Results showed that dam‐related sediment storage persisted at least until 15 000 years for all dam scenarios. Incision and knickpoint retreat occurred faster in the detachment‐limited landscape than in the transport‐limited landscape. Furthermore, in the transport‐limited landscape, knickpoint persistence decreased with increasing dam erodibility. Stream capture occurred only in the transport‐limited landscape due to a persisting floodplain behind the dam and headward erosion of adjacent channels. Changes in sediment yield variation due to stream captures did occur but cannot be distinguished from other changes in variation of sediment yield. Comparison of the model results with field examples indicates that the model reproduces several key phenomena of damming response in both transport‐limited and detachment‐limited landscapes. We conclude that a damming event which occurred 15 000 years ago can influence present‐day sediment yield, profile evolution and stream patterns. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating Magnetized Jets

A suitable model for the macroscopic behavior of accretion disk-jet systems is provided by the equations of MagnetoHydroDynamics (MHD). These equations allow us to perform scale-encompassing numerical simulations of multidimensional nonlinear magnetized plasma flows. For that purpose, we continue the development and exploitation of the Versatile Advection Code (VAC) along with its recent extension which employs dynamically controlled grid adaptation. In the adaptive mesh refinement AMRVAC code, modules for simulating any-dimensional special relativistic hydro- and magnetohydrodynamic problems are currently operational. Here, we review recent 3D MHD simulations of fundamental plasma instabilities, relevant when dealing with cospatial shear flow and twisted magnetic fields. Such magnetized jet flows can be susceptible to a wide variety of hydro (e.g. Kelvin-Helmholtz) or magnetohydrodynamic (e.g. current driven kink) instabilities. Recent MHD computations of 3D jet flows have revealed how such mutually interacting instabilities can in fact aid in maintaining jet coherency. Another breakthrough from computational magnetofluid modeling is the demonstration of continuous, collimated, transmagnetosonic jet launching from magnetized accretion disks. Summarizing, MHD simulations are rapidly gaining realism and significantly advance our understanding of nonlinear astrophysical magnetofluid dynamics.     

Catchment response to lava damming: integrating field observation,geochronology and landscape evolution modelling

Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers on catchment response. The Geren Catchment (~45 km²) in western Turkey is suitable for such a study, as it has been influenced by uplift, climate change and lava damming. Four Middle Pleistocene lava flows (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar‐ dated from 310 to 175 ka) filled and dammed the Gediz River at the Gediz–Geren confluence, resulting in base‐level fluctuations of the otherwise uplift‐driven incising river. Field reconstruction and luminescence dating suggest fluvial terraces in the Geren Catchment are capped by Middle Pleistocene aggradational fills. This showed that incision of the Geren trunk stream has been delayed until the end of MIS 5. Subsequently, the catchment has responded to base‐level lowering since MIS 4 by 30 m of stepped net incision. Field reconstruction left us with uncertainty on the main drivers of terrace formation. Therefore, we used landscape evolution modelling to investigate catchment response to three scenarios of base‐level change: (i) uplift with climate change (rainfall and vegetation based on arboreal pollen); (ii) uplift, climate change and short‐lived damming events; (iii) uplift, climate and long‐lived damming events. Outputs were evaluated for erosion–aggradation evolution in trunk streams at two different distances from the catchment outlet. Climate influences erosion–aggradation activity in the catchment, although internal feedbacks influence timing and magnitude. Furthermore, lava damming events partly control if and where these climate‐driven aggradations occur. Damming thus leaves a legacy on current landscape evolution. Catchment response to long‐duration damming events corresponds best with field reconstruction and dating. The combination of climate and base level explains a significant part of the landscape evolution history of the Geren Catchment. By combining model results with fieldwork, additional conclusions on landscape evolution could be drawn. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global Triptych: a bottom-up approach for the differentiation of commitments under the Climate Convention

Abstract

In the coming years the international debate on commitments for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol will intensify. In this study, the Global Triptych approach is put forward as an input for international decision-making concerning the differentiation of commitments by 2020. It is a sector- and technology-oriented approach, and we calculated quantitative emission limitation objectives and global emissions starting from bottomup information on long-term reduction opportunities. Central to the calculations were long-term sustainability targets for the year 2050, formulated for (1) energy efficiency in the energy-intensive industry, (2) greenhouse gas intensity of electricity production, and (3) per capita emissions in the domestic sectors. Calculated emission limitation objectives for 13 world regions ranged from about ?30% to more than +200%. The ranking of world regions in the differentiation turned out to be independent of the levels chosen for the long-term sustainability targets. The objectives seem sufficient to maintain the long-term possibility of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at about 550 ppm CO₂-eq, but will require severe emission reductions. These may be relaxed to a certain degree if stabilization at 650 ppm CO₂-eq is aimed for. We conclude that the bottom-up character of the approach made it possible to examine important basic principles of the Climate Convention, including equity, the needs and circumstances of developing countries, cost-effectiveness and sustainable development.     

A global model of mass independent mercury stable isotope fractionation

Mass independent fractionation (MIF) of stable isotopes associated with terrestrial geochemical processes was first observed in the 1980s for oxygen and in the 1990s for sulfur isotopes. Recently mercury (Hg) was added to this shortlist when positive odd Hg isotope anomalies were observed in biological tissues. Experimental work identified photoreduction of aquatic inorganic divalent Hg^II and photodegradation of monomethylmercury species as plausible MIF inducing reactions. Observations of continental receptors of atmospheric Hg deposition such as peat, lichens, soils and, indirectly, coal have shown predominantly negative MIF. This has led to the suggestion that atmospheric Hg has negative MIF signatures and that these are the compliment of positive Hg MIF in the aquatic environment. Recent observations on atmospheric vapor phase Hg⁰ and Hg^II in wet precipitation reveal zero and positive Hg MIF respectively and are in contradiction with a simple aquatic Hg^II photoreduction scenario as the origin for global Hg MIF observations.This study presents a synthesis of all terrestrial Hg MIF observations, and these are integrated in a one-dimensional coupled continent-ocean-atmosphere model of the global Hg cycle. The model illustrates how Hg MIF signatures propagate through the various Earth surface reservoirs. The scenario in which marine photoreduction is the main MIF inducing process results in negative atmospheric Δ¹⁹⁹Hg and positive ocean Δ¹⁹⁹Hg of −0.5‰ and +0.25‰, yet does not explain atmospheric Hg⁰ and Hg^II wet precipitation observations. Alternative model scenarios that presume in-cloud aerosol Hg^II photoreduction and continental Hg^II photoreduction at soil, snow and vegetation surfaces to display MIF are necessary to explain the ensemble of natural observations. The model based approach is a first step in understanding Hg MIF at a global scale and the eventual incorporation of Hg stable isotope information in detailed global mercury chemistry and transport models.