The Role of Ocean Tides on Groundwater-Surface Water Exchange in a Mangrove-Dominated Estuary: Shark River Slough,Florida Coastal Everglades,USA

Low-relief environments like the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) have complicated hydrologic systems where surface water and groundwater processes are intimately linked yet hard to separate. Fluid exchange within these low-hydraulic-gradient systems can occur across broad spatial and temporal scales, with variable contributions to material transport and transformation. Identifying and assessing the scales at which these processes operate is essential for accurate evaluations of how these systems contribute to global biogeochemical cycles. The distribution of ²²²Rn and ^223,224,226Ra have complex spatial patterns along the Shark River Slough estuary (SRSE), Everglades, FL. High-resolution time-series measurements of ²²²Rn activity, salinity, and water level were used to quantify processes affecting radon fluxes out of the mangrove forest over a tidal cycle. Based on field data, tidal pumping through an extensive network of crab burrows in the lower FCE provides the best explanation for the high radon and fluid fluxes. Burrows are irrigated during rising tides when radon and other dissolved constituents are released from the mangrove soil. Flushing efficiency of the burrows—defined as the tidal volume divided by the volume of burrows—estimated for the creek drainage area vary seasonally from 25 (wet season) to 100 % (dry season) in this study. The tidal pumping of the mangrove forest soil acts as a significant vector for exchange between the forest and the estuary. Processes that enhance exchange of O₂ and other materials across the sediment-water interface could have a profound impact on the environmental response to larger scale processes such as sea level rise and climate change. Compounding the material budgets of the SRSE are additional inputs from groundwater from the Biscayne Aquifer, which were identified using radium isotopes. Quantification of the deep groundwater component is not obtainable, but isotopic data suggest a more prevalent signal in the dry season. These findings highlight the important role that both tidal- and seasonal-scale forcings play on groundwater movement in low-gradient hydrologic systems.     

Alternative management systems for the UK fishing industry

The paper considers opportunities for institutional development within the UK fishing industry that aim to engender a more meaningful incorporation of fishermen's organisations within the policy system. Special attention is given to the location of responsibility within the policy process. This involves an exploration of an alternative approach to consultation and the scope for delegation of management responsibilities to fishermen's organisations. Mechanisms to improve coordination among fishermen's organisations and to strengthen their internal architecture are also considered. The analysis raises important questions to inform the continuing debate over the development and structure of devolved management systems, in particular regarding the assumptions underlying user participation and the representativeness, capabilities and aspirations of fishermen's organisations.     

Late-Quaternary biogeographic scenarios for the brown bear (Ursus arctos), a wild mammal model species

This review provides an up-to-date synthesis of the matrilineal phylogeography of a uniquely well-studied Holarctic mammal, the brown bear. We extend current knowledge by presenting a DNA sequence derived from one of the earliest known fossils of a polar bear (dated to 115 000 years before present), a species that shares a paraphyletic mitochondrial association with brown bears. A molecular clock analysis of 140 mitochondrial DNA sequences, including our new polar bear sequence, provides novel insights into the times of origin for different brown bear clades. We propose a number of regional biogeographic scenarios based on genetic data, divergence time estimates and paleontological records. The case of the brown bear provides an example for researchers working with less well-studied taxa: it shows clearly that phylogeographic models based on patterns of modern genetic variation alone can be substantially improved by including data on historical patterns of genetic diversity in the form of ancient DNA sequences derived from accurately dated samples and by using an approach to divergence-time estimation that suits the data under analysis. Using such approaches it has been possible to (i) establish that the processes shaping modern genetic diversity in brown bears acted recently, within the last three glacial cycles; (ii) distinguish among hypotheses concerning species’ responses to climatic oscillations in accordance with the lack of phylogeographic structure that existed in brown bears prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM); (iii) reassess theories linking monophyletic brown bear populations to particular LGM refuge areas; and (iv) identify vicariance events and track analogous patterns of migration by brown bears out of Eurasia to North America and Japan.     

Using long-term transit timing to detect terrestrial planets

We propose that the presence of additional planets in extrasolar planetary systems can be detected by long-term transit timing studies. If a transiting planet is on an eccentric orbit then the presence of another planet causes a secular advance of the transiting planet's pericentre over and above the effect of general relativity. Although this secular effect is impractical to detect over a small number of orbits, it causes long-term differences when future transits occur, much like the long-term decay observed in pulsars. Measuring this transit-timing delay would thus allow the detection of either one or more additional planets in the system or the first measurements of non-zero oblateness ( J ₂) of the central stars.     

An analytical solution for rapidly predicting post-fire peak streamflow for small watersheds in southern California

Following wildfires, the probability of flooding and debris flows increase, posing risks to human lives, downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In southern California (USA), the Rowe, Countryman, and Storey (RCS) 1949 methodology is an empirical method that is used to rapidly estimate post-fire peak streamflow. We re-evaluated the accuracy of RCS for 33 watersheds under current conditions. Pre-fire peak streamflow prediction performance was low, where the average R² was 0.29 and average RMSE was 1.10 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year recurrence interval events, respectively. Post-fire, RCS performance was also low, with an average R² of 0.26 and RMSE of 15.77 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year events. We demonstrated that RCS overgeneralizes watershed processes and does not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variability in systems affected by wildfire and extreme weather events and often underpredicted peak streamflow without sediment bulking factors. A novel application of machine learning was used to identify critical watershed characteristics including local physiography, land cover, geology, slope, aspect, rainfall intensity, and soil burn severity, resulting in two random forest models with 45 and five parameters (RF-45 and RF-5, respectively) to predict post-fire peak streamflow. RF-45 and RF-5 performed better than the RCS method; however, they demonstrated the importance and reliance on data availability. The important parameters identified by the machine learning techniques were used to create a three-dimensional polynomial function to calculate post-fire peak streamflow in small catchments in southern California during the first year after fire (R² = 0.82; RMSE = 6.59 cms/km²) which can be used as an interim tool by post-fire risk assessment teams. We conclude that a significant increase in data collection of high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall intensity, streamflow, and sediment loading in channels will help to guide future model development to quantify post-fire flood risk.     

Exploring the extent to which fluctuations in ice-rafted debris reflect mass changes in the source ice sheet: a model–observation comparison using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

The British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) was highly dynamic during the Late Quaternary, with considerable regional differences in the timing and extent of its change. This was reflected in equally variable offshore ice-rafted debris (IRD) records. Here we reconcile these two records using the FRUGAL intermediate complexity iceberg–climate model, with varying BIIS catchment-level iceberg fluxes, to simulate change in IRD origin and magnitude along the western European margin at 1000-year time steps during the height of the last BIIS glaciation (31–6 ka bp ). This modelled IRD variability is compared with existing IRD records from the deep ocean at five cores along this margin. There is general agreement of the temporal and spatial IRD variability between observations and model through this period. The Porcupine Bank off northwestern Ireland was confirmed by the modelling as a major dividing line between sites possessing exclusively northern or southern source regions for offshore IRD. During Heinrich events 1 and 2, the cores show evidence of a proportion of North American IRD, more particularly to the south of the British Isles. Modelling supports this southern bias for likely Heinrich impact, but also suggests North American IRD will only reach the British margin in unusual circumstances.