Analyzing the spatial interactions between rainfall levels and flooding prediction in São Paulo

Rainfall is one of the primary triggers for many geological and hydrological natural disasters. While the geological events are related to mass movements in land collapse due to waterlogging, the hydrological ones are usually assigned to runoff or flooding. Studies in the literature propose predicting mass movement events as a function of accumulated rainfall levels recorded at distinct periods. According to these approaches, a two-dimensional rainfall levels feature space is segmented into the occurrence and non-occurrence decision regions by an empirical critical curve (CC). Although this scheme may easily be extended to other purposes and applications, studies in the literature need to discuss its use for flooding prediction. In light of this motivation, the present study is unfolded in (1) verifying that defining CCs in the rainfall levels feature space is a practical approach for flooding prediction and (2) analyzing how geospatial components interact with rainfall levels and flooding prediction. A database containing the rainfall levels recorded for flooding and non-flooding events in São Paulo city, Brazil, regarding the period 2015–2016, was considered in this study. The results indicate good accuracy for flooding prediction using only partial rain, which can be improved by adding physical characteristics of the flooding locations, demonstrating a direct correlation with spatial interactions, and rainfall levels.     

On Geodynamic Evolution of Simao Region (Southwestern Yunnan, China) during Late Paleozoic and Triassic

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅＳｉｍａｏｒｅｇｉｏｎ (ＳＷＹｕｎｎａｎ ,Ｃｈｉｎａ) ,ｓｉｔｕａｔｅｄｂｅ ｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅＡｉｌａｏｓｈａｎｂｅｌｔｉｎｔｈｅｅａｓｔａｎｄｔｈｅＬａｎｃａｎｇｊｉａｎｇｚｏｎｅｉｎｔｈｅｗｅｓｔ (Ｆｉｇ .1) ,ｉｓａｋｅｙａｒｅａｔｏｃｈｒｏｎｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｌｙｃｏｎｓｔｒａｉｎｌａｔｅＰａｌｅｏｚｏｉｃｃｏｍｐｒｅｓｓｉｏｎａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｔｈｕｓｏｆｐｒｉｍｅｉｎ ｔｅｒｅｓｔｗｈｅｎｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｎｇｔｈｅｐｌａｔｅ ｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｈｉ…     

Evaluation of pre-CHAMP gravity models `GRIM5-S1' and `GRIM5-C1' with satellite crossover altimetry

 The new GFZ/GRGS gravity field models GRIM5-S1 and GRIM5-C1, currently used as initial models for the CHAMP mission, have been compared with other recent models (JGM 3, EGM 96) for radial orbit accuracy (by means of latitude lumped coefficients) in computations on altimetry satellite orbits. The bases for accuracy judgements are multi-year averages of crossover sea height differences from Geosat and ERS 1/2 missions. This radially sensitive data is fully independent of the data used to develop these gravity models. There is good agreement between the observed differences in all of the world's oceans and projections of the same errors from the scaled covariance matrix of their harmonic geopotential coefficients. It was found that the tentative scale factor of five for the formal standard deviations of the harmonic coefficients of the new GRIM fields is justified, i.e. the accuracy estimates, provided together with the GRIM geopotential coefficients, are realistic. Received: 20 February 2001 / Accepted: 24 October 2001     

An 'outside-in' outburst of Aql X–1

We present optical spectroscopy and optical and infrared photometry of the neutron star soft X-ray transient Aql X–1 during its X-ray outburst of 1997 August. By modelling the X-ray, optical and IR light curves, we find a 3-d delay between the IR and X-ray rise times, analogous to the UV–optical delay seen in dwarf novae outbursts and black hole X-ray transients. We interpret this delay as the signature of an 'outside-in' outburst, in which a thermal instability in the outer disc propagates inward. This outburst is the first of this type definitively identified in a neutron star X-ray transient.     

Evaluating Subsurface Parameterization to Simulate Hyporheic Exchange: The Steinlach River Test Site

Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of river water and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic exchange has been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. Our study evaluates the trade-offs between intrinsic (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) model errors when choosing between homogeneous and highly complex subsurface parameter structures. We modeled the Steinlach River Test Site in Southwest Germany using a fully coupled surface water-groundwater model to simulate hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive errors and uncertainties of transit time distributions. A highly parameterized model was built, treated as a “virtual reality” and used as a reference. We found that if the parameter structure is too simple, it will be limited by intrinsic model errors. By increasing subsurface complexity through the addition of zones or heterogeneity, we can begin to exchange intrinsic for epistemic errors. Thus, the appropriate level of detail to represent the subsurface depends on the acceptable range of intrinsic structural errors for the given modeling objectives and the available site data. We found that a zonated model is capable of reproducing the transit time distributions of a more detailed model, but only if the geological structures are known. An interpolated heterogeneous parameter field (cf. pilot points) showed the best trade-offs between the two errors, indicating fitness for practical applications. Parameter fields generated by multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) produce transit time distributions with the largest uncertainties, however, these are reducible by additional hydrogeological data, particularly flux measurements.     

Coronal disturbances

Time lapse movies acquired with the Sacramento Peak Observatory 6-in filter coronagraph very infrequently show dramatic transient events. Many of these events (at 1.04 < r/r < 1.20) are correlated with H activity at the limb, especially with large surges and eruptive prominences. Metric or centrimetric radio bursts are found associated with certain types of 5303 coronal events. The heights to which such disturbances will propagate can often be estimated from the green line movie data. We report the results of a study of all the examples of such transients observed during the last 16 years.     

Bulk organic δ13C and C/N ratios as palaeosalinity indicators within a Scottish isolation basin

Microfossils in isolation basin sediments are frequently used to reconstruct sea‐level change, but preservation problems and non‐analogue situations can limit their usefulness. Here we investigate the potential of stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) and C/N ratios from bulk organic matter, as an alternative proxy of salinity within isolation basin sediments from a basin in northwest Scotland. Within the Holocene sediment δ¹³C and C/N are determined largely by the mean weighted values of the predominant source of the organic material. Analysis of modern materials and comparison with the diatom record shows that the marine parts of the sequence are dominated by high δ¹³C and variable C/N. In the fresh water sequences the organic material is a mixture of both freshwater aquatic and terrestrial plant input that have relatively low δ¹³C and high C/N. The application of δ¹³C and C/N ratios in the studied basin in general follow the environmental change recorded by the diatoms and shows the potential of bulk organic matter in the investigation of salinity change in isolation basins. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward an expert system for identification of minerals in thin section

Minerals may be identified by optical inspection and x-ray diffraction analysis. Full and correct identification, however, requires experience and extensive knowledge of mineral characteristics and association. Computer systems designed to approach levels of human expertise in similarly complex identification tasks have become increasingly effective with the application and refinement of various Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. These knowledge-based systemsuse the skills, knowledge, and rules of thumb that distinguish the expert from the knowledgeable layman to emulate human expertise. They also may be modified to serve a tutorial role whereby a nonexpert's approach to the task may be compared with that of the expert (system), and criticized accordingly. Such a knowledge-based system capable of identifying minerals from their optical characteristics is being developed at the University of Reading.     

Learning from (small) disasters

In this article, disasters are understood as processes that have different impacts on social routines in terms of scale, scope and duration. The extent of adaptive processes in society can provide the ground for a rough classification of disaster types. Such classification has, on the one hand, practical and analytical advantages. On the other hand, they harbour the danger of overlooking transitions of scale and discourage comprehensive scale-related learning forms. Based on the disaster scale by Fischer (Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 1:91–107, 2003), flash floods in mountain rivers and torrents are described as extreme emergencies or small-town disasters. Three given examples will clearly show that learning rarely takes place within an institutional setting that is subjected to small disasters, because the stakeholder’s focus remains on only one level. Therefore, we propose to implement a system of self-organised and scale-independent learning, so called deutero learning, within the political subsystem. Following a damaging event, participative processes that involve all levels should be initialised. Their task would be to assess the combination of causes and draw conclusions for mitigation measures. An aggregation of these assessments would help the responsible political subsystems to adapt the current natural disasters policy to the changing environmental conditions.