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451.
452.
Simulations of impacts of a double-CO2 climate with the Changed Climate Fire Modeling System in Northern California consistently projected increases in area burned and in the frequency of escaped fires compared with simulations of the present climate. However, the magnitude of those increases was strongly influenced by vegetation type, choice of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) scenario, and choice of climatic forcing variables. The greatest projected increase in fire severity occurred in grasslands, using the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM, with wind speed, temperature, humidity and precipitation as driving variables. 相似文献
453.
Jeremy R. Henderson Ian G. Main Calum Maclean Michael G. Norman 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(3-4):545-565
We present a cellular automaton model which simulates the process of seismogenesis using rules for evolution which are derived from the field of fracture mechanics, and include an interplay of positive and negative feedbacks. We describe the implementation of this model, and its analysis, in a massively parallel environment using the Connection Machine. Starting from a lattice with a fractal distribution of fracture toughnesses, theb value evolves in a way which closely mimics both the evolutions ofb value observed in the laboratory and derived from earthquake catalogues, reaching a broad and irregular maximum in the period preceding a major event, and declining rapidly during catastrophic failure. We conclude that the processes modelled are a reasonable representation of those occurring in Nature, and that the cellular automaton paradigm is a valuable way of simulating these processes on a large scale in an economical manner. 相似文献
454.
Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption of a constant relation between discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) over time. However, temporal variation in the sediment supply of a watershed results in shifts in this relation by increasing variability and by introducing nonlinearities in the form of hysteresis or a path‐dependent relation. In this study, we used a mixed‐effects linear model to estimate an average SSC–Q relation for different periods of time within the hydrologic cycle while accounting for seasonality and hysteresis. We tested the performance of the mixed‐effects model against the standard rating curve, represented by a generalized least squares regression, by comparing observed and predicted sediment loads for a test case on the Chilliwack River, British Columbia, Canada. In our analyses, the mixed‐effects model reflected more accurate patterns of interpolated SSC from Q data than the rating curve, especially for the low‐flow summer months when the SSC–Q relation is less clear. Akaike information criterion scores were lower for the mixed‐effects model than for the standard model, and the mixed‐effects model explained nearly twice as much variance as the standard model (52% vs 27%). The improved performance was achieved by accounting for variability in the SSC–Q relation within each month and across years for the same month using fixed and random effects, respectively, a characteristic disregarded in the sediment rating curve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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456.
Late Quaternary terrestrial climate records from the semi-arid zone of the Western Cape of South Africa are rare. However, palaeoenvironmental information may be inferred from ancient termite mounds of the region. Calcrete lenses in these mounds have δ13C and δ18O values that show systematic changes with radiocarbon dates, which range from 33,629–36,709 to 21,676–23,256 cal yr BP. These dates confirm that these heuweltjies had been present in the landscape since the last glacial period. The decrease in δ13C and δ18O from 33,629–36,709 to 21,676–23,256 cal yr BP indicates that climate information is recorded by the calcretes. It is suggested that a progressive decline in air temperature and an increase in moisture availability, and a decline in abundance of C4 or CAM plants, occurred in the region during the time heuweltjie calcite precipitated. 相似文献
457.
Jeremy B. Platt 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(3):263-275
Fuel prices in 2006 continued at record levels, with uranium continuing upward unabated and coal, SO2 emission allowances, and natural gas all softening. This softening did not continue for natural gas, however, whose prices
rose, fell and rose again, first following weather influences and, by the second quarter of 2007, continuing at high levels
without any support from fundamentals. This article reviews these trends and describes the remarkable increases in fuel expenses
for power generation. By the end of 2005, natural gas claimed 55% of annual power sector fuel expenses, even though it was
used for only 19% of electric generation. Although natural gas is enormously important to the power sector, the sector also
is an important driver of the natural gas market—growing to over 28% of the market even as total use has declined. The article
proceeds to discuss globalization, natural gas price risk, and technology developments. Forces of globalization are poised
to affect the energy markets in new ways—new in not being only about oil. Of particular interest in the growth of intermodal
traffic and its a little-understood impacts on rail traffic patterns and transportation costs, and expected rapidly expanding
LNG imports toward the end of the decade. Two aspects of natural gas price risk are discussed: how understanding the use of
gas in the power sector helps define price ceilings and floors for natural gas, and how the recent increase in the natural
gas production after years of record drilling could alter the supply–demand balance for the better. The article cautions,
however, that escalation in natural gas finding and development costs is countering the more positive developments that emerged
during 2006. Regarding technology, the exploitation of unconventional natural gas was one highlight. So too was the queuing
up of coal-fired power plants for the post-2010 period, a phenomenon that has come under great pressure with many consequences
including increased pressures in the natural gas market. The most significant illustration of these forces was the early 2007
suspension of development plans by a large power company, well before the Supreme Court’s ruling on CO2 as a tailpipe pollutant and President Bush’s call for global goals on CO2 emissions.
相似文献
Jeremy B. PlattEmail: |
458.
Philip Tillotson Jeremy Sothcott Angus Ian Best Mark Chapman Xiang‐Yang Li 《Geophysical Prospecting》2012,60(3):516-525
We present laboratory ultrasonic measurements of shear‐wave splitting from two synthetic silica cemented sandstones. The manufacturing process, which enabled silica cementation of quartz sand grains, was found to produce realistic sandstones of average porosity 29.7 ± 0.5% and average permeability 29.4 ± 11.3 mD. One sample was made with a regular distribution of aligned, penny‐shaped voids to simulate meso‐scale fractures in reservoir rocks, while the other was left blank. Ultrasonic shear waves were measured with a propagation direction of 90° to the coincident bedding plane and fracture normal. In the water saturated blank sample, shear‐wave splitting, the percentage velocity difference between the fast and slow shear waves, of <0.5% was measured due to the bedding planes (or layering) introduced during sample preparation. In the fractured sample, shear‐wave splitting (corrected for layering anisotropy) of 2.72 ± 0.58% for water, 2.80 ± 0.58% for air and 3.21 ± 0.58% for glycerin saturation at a net pressure of 40 MPa was measured. Analysis of X‐ray CT scan images was used to determine a fracture density of 0.0298 ± 0.077 in the fractured sample. This supports theoretical predictions that shear‐wave splitting (SWS) can be used as a good estimate for fracture density in porous rocks (i.e., SWS = 100εf, where εf is fracture density) regardless of pore fluid type, for wave propagation at 90° to the fracture normal. 相似文献
459.
460.