Strong hydrographic controls on spatial and seasonal variability of dissolved organic carbon in the Chukchi Sea

A detailed analysis of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) distribution in the Western Arctic Ocean was performed during the spring and summer of 2002 and the summer of 2003. DOC concentrations were compared between the three cruises and with previously reported Arctic work. Concentrations of DOC were highest in the surface water where they also showed the highest degree of variability spatially, seasonally, and annually. Over the Canada Basin, DOC concentrations in the main water masses were: (1) surface layer (71±4 μM, ranging from 50 to 90 μM); (2) Bering Sea winter water (66±2 μM, ranging from 58 to 75 μM); (3) halocline layer (63±3 μM, ranging from 59 to 68 μM), (4) Atlantic layer (53±2 μM, ranging from 48 to 57 μM), and (5) deep Arctic layer (47±1 μM, ranging from 45 to 50 μM). In the upper 200 m, DOC concentrations were correlated with salinity, with higher DOC concentrations present in less-saline waters. This correlation indicates the strong influence that fluvial input from the Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers had on the DOC system in the upper layer of the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. Over the deep basin, there appeared to be a relationship between DOC in the upper 10 m and the degree of sea-ice melt water present. We found that sea-ice melt water dilutes the DOC signal in the surface waters, which is contrary to studies conducted in the central Arctic Ocean.     

Review of nekton patterns and ecological processes in seagrass landscapes

We reviewed seagrass landscape studies on nekton (fish and larger mobile crustaceans) to summarise: (1) patterns of nekton abundance in relation to patch attributes; and (2) models used to explain processes underpinning observed patterns. The response of nekton to landscape attributes is highly variable. Different taxa showed increasing densities with: increasing and decreasing patch size (12 and 11 taxa, respectively), increasing and decreasing proximity within a patch to edge (9, 14), increasing and decreasing distances from nearest seagrass patch (4, 11), and with patches perpendicular and parallel to currents (1, 2). The majority of taxa (213 out of 281, or 82%) showed no relationships. Landscape scale patterns are important for some species but evidence so far does not demonstrate major landscape effects overall. The lack of pattern might reflect the overriding importance of other factors such as within-patch characteristics, water depth or position within an estuary. It might also result from measurements at the wrong scale. The rigour of surveys can be improved by avoiding confounding of patch attributes by other factors, increasing awareness of statistical power, and more considered survey designs for attributes such as edge effects. The predation model is the most frequently invoked and tested model. Other explanatory models are based on disturbance, rates of encounter, food availability, larval supply, migration and reproductive success, but in many cases are not based on observed patterns. The best experimental work has been done on nekton species for which landscape studies have been built on a detailed understanding of the ecology of the species, such as for blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus). As this basic ecological platform is laid for more species, the landscape approach will become increasingly fruitful.     

Self-organised criticality and fluid-rock interactions in the brittle field

The concept of self-organised criticality (SOC) has recently been suggested as a paradigm for the long-term behaviour of earthquakes, even though many of the currently-proposed models require some tuning of the state variables or local conservation rules to produce the universally-observed Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution witha b value near 1. For example, a systematic negative correlation is predicted between modelb values and the degree of conservation of local force after the slip of a single element in an elastic spring/block/frictional slider model. A similar relation is described here for a cellular automaton model with constitutive laws based on fracture mechanics. Such systems, although critical phenomena in the sense of producing order on all scales, are clearly not universal, and may not in general even be true examples of SOC. Nevertheless they adequately reproduce both the observed power-law (fractal or multifractal) scaling and its reported short-term fluctuation.We also present experimental and field evidence for similar systematic variations inb value with the degree of force conservation (expressed in terms of a normalised crack extension force) during subcritical crack growth involving the physical and chemical influence of pore fluids during a single cycle of failure both in tension and compression. We find that the level of conservation is strongly influenced by fluid-rock interaction under stress, allowing energy partition into processes such as: physico-chemical stress corrosion reactions; the dissolution and precipitation of mineral species on crack surfaces; and the purely mechnical phenomenon of dilatant hardening. All of these are known to occur in the Earth on a local scale, but few have been explicitly included in automaton models of seismicity. The implication is that over long time periods pore fluids may exert a strong physical and chemical influence on the universal state of SOC which the system evolves in a complex interplay of local feedback mechanisms keeping the system near criticality, perhaps most strikingly due to the valve action of faults. In the short term, crustal fluids might nevertheless be responsible for systematic local fluctuations about this average state.     

Generating Surface Models of Population Using Dasymetric Mapping*

Aggregated demographic datasets are associated with analytical and cartographic problems due to the arbitrary nature of areal unit partitioning. This article describes a methodology for generating a surface‐based representation of population that mitigates these problems. This methodology uses dasymetric mapping and incorporates areal weighting and empirical sampling techniques to assess the relationship between categorical ancillary data and population distribution. As a demonstration, a 100‐meter‐resolution population surface is generated from U.S. Census block group data for the southeast Pennsylvania region. Remote‐sensing‐derived urban land‐cover data serve as ancillary data in the dasymetric mapping.     

Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071–2100)

We present an analysis of climate change over Europe as simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) nested within time-slice atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Changes in mean and interannual variability are discussed for the 30-year period of 2071–2100 with respect to the present day period of 1961–1990 under forcing from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. In both scenarios, the European region undergoes substantial warming in all seasons, in the range of 1–5.5°C, with the warming being 1–2°C lower in the B2 than in the A2 scenario. The spatial patterns of warming are similar in the two scenarios, with a maximum over eastern Europe in winter and over western and southern Europe in summer. The precipitation changes in the two scenarios also show similar spatial patterns. In winter, precipitation increases over most of Europe (except for the southern Mediterranean regions) due to increased storm activity and higher atmospheric water vapor loadings. In summer, a decrease in precipitation is found over most of western and southern Europe in response to a blocking-like anticyclonic circulation over the northeastern Atlantic which deflects summer storms northward. The precipitation changes in the intermediate seasons (spring and fall) are less pronounced than in winter and summer. Overall, the intensity of daily precipitation events predominantly increases, often also in regions where the mean precipitation decreases. Conversely the number of wet days decreases (leading to longer dry periods) except in the winter over western and central Europe. Cloudiness, snow cover and soil water content show predominant decreases, in many cases also in regions where precipitation increases. Interannual variability of both temperature and precipitation increases substantially in the summer and shows only small changes in the other seasons. A number of statistically significant regional trends are found throughout the scenario simulations, especially for temperature and for the A2 scenario. The results from the forcing AGCM simulations and the nested RCM simulations are generally consistent with each other at the broad scale. However, significant differences in the simulated surface climate changes are found between the two models in the summer, when local physics processes are more important. In addition, substantial fine scale detail in the RCM-produced change signal is found in response to local topographical and coastline features.     

Velocity anisotropy and attenuation of shale in under- and overpressured conditions

The seismic velocity and attenuation of fully saturated shales were measured for the first time under overpressured conditions, using the ultrasonic reflection technique. Shale cores from naturally overpressured horizons in the North Sea were tested in the laboratory, at confining and pore pressures relevant to in situ conditions.
A single-frequency tone-burst pulse wave was used to determine the seismic wave velocities and quality factors of the shale samples, with errors less than 0.3% and 0.1 dB/cm, respectively, at a frequency of 0.75 MHz. Sample length changes with varying confining and pore pressure were measured and the pore pressure equilibration time was monitored for each sample.
The anisotropy of the seismic attributes ( V _p, V _s, Q _p and Q _s) was determined over a range of differential pressures from 5 to 60 MPa, with respect to the predominant foliation. The ultrasonic velocity data followed a transversely isotropic pattern depending on the direction of wave propagation with respect to the laminations. The Poisson's ratio was found to rise by 5% as the shale material progressed from a normally pressured to an overpressured state. The quality factor ( Q ) characteristics were interpreted in terms of pore geometry and connectivity as well as the directional permeability of the transversely isotropic shale material. The results were converted to bulk and shear loss modulus defects, and a positive bulk loss was observed for waves propagating perpendicular to the lamination plane even above differential pressures of 20 MPa. This indicates different levels of Biot-flow and squirt-flow attenuation mechanisms acting within the shale structure, depending on the wave propagation and vibration directions.     

Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model

Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.     

Use of remote sensing to document changes in marsh vegetation following the Amoco Cadiz oil spill (Brittany, France, 1978)

Image analysis of historical aerial photographs was used to examine the effects of the Amoco Cadiz oil spill and resulting clean-up on marsh ecology. Two heavily oiled marsh systems were compared. The marsh which received no clean-up recovered to its prior condition. The marshes in the system cleaned by sediment removal were extensively altered as a result of changes in intertidal height of the sediment surface.