Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models

In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geochemical composition of the terrestrial surface (without soils) and comparison with the upper continental crust

The terrestrial surface, the “skin of the earth”, is an important interface for global (geochemical) material fluxes between major reservoirs of the Earth system: continental and oceanic crust, ocean and atmosphere. Because of a lack in knowledge of the geochemical composition of the terrestrial surface, it is not well understood how the geochemical evolution of the Earth’s crust is impacted by its properties. Therefore, here a first estimate of the geochemical composition of the terrestrial surface is provided, which can be used for further analysis. The geochemical average compositions of distinct lithological classes are calculated based on a literature review and applied to a global lithological map. Comparison with the bulk composition of the upper continental crust shows that the geochemical composition of the terrestrial surface (below the soil horizons) is significantly different from the assumed average of the upper continental crust. Specifically, the elements Ca, S, C, Cl and Mg are enriched at the terrestrial surface, while Na is depleted (and probably K). Analysis of these results provide further evidence that chemical weathering, chemical alteration of minerals in marine settings, biogeochemical processes (e.g. sulphate reduction in sediments and biomineralization) and evaporite deposition are important for the geochemical composition of the terrestrial surface on geological time scales. The movement of significant amounts of carbonate to the terrestrial surface is identified as the major process for observed Ca-differences. Because abrupt and significant changes of the carbonate abundance on the terrestrial surface are likely influencing CO₂-consumption rates by chemical weathering on geological time scales and thus the carbon cycle, refined, spatially resolved analysis is suggested. This should include the recognition of the geochemical composition of the shelf areas, now being below sea level.     

Fossa Carolina: The First Attempt to Bridge the Central European Watershed—A Review,New Findings,and Geoarchaeological Challenges

The Central European watershed passes through the southern Franconian Jura in Bavaria, Germany. This principal watershed divides the Rhine/Main catchment and the Danube catchment. In the early Middle Ages, when ships were an important means of transportation, Charlemagne decided to connect these catchments by the construction of a canal known as the Fossa Carolina. In this paper, we present for the first time ¹⁴C data from the Fossa Carolina fill and document a high‐resolution stratigraphic record of the Carolingian and post‐Carolingian trench infilling. Our results provide clear evidence for peat layers in different levels of the trench infill, suggesting a chain of ponds. However, the majority of these peat layers yield mid‐Medieval and younger ages. The period of major peat growth was during the Medieval climatic optimum. Therefore, our preliminary results do not prove the use of the trench during Carolingian times. However, first results from the reconstruction of the Carolingian trench bottom support the hypothesis that the Fossa was primarily planned as a navigable chain of ponds and not as a continuous canal. In the eastern part of the trench, a dam is located that was postulated in former studies to be part of a barrage for supplying the Carolingian canal with water. New ¹⁴C data indicate much younger ages and do not support the Carolingian barrage concept.     

Towards an integrated arid zone water management using simulation-based optimisation

For ensuring both optimal sustainable water resources management and long-term planning in a changing arid environment, we propose an integrated Assessment-, Prognoses-, Planning- and Management tool (APPM). The new APPM integrates the complex interactions of the strongly nonlinear meteorological, hydrological and agricultural phenomena, considering the socio-economic aspects. It aims at achieving best possible solutions for water allocation, groundwater storage and withdrawals including saline water management together with a substantial increase of the water use efficiency employing novel optimisation strategies for irrigation control and scheduling. To obtain a robust and fast operation of the water management system, it unites process modeling with artificial intelligence tools and evolutionary optimisation techniques for managing both water quality and quantity. We demonstrate some key components of our methodology by an exemplary application to the south Al-Batinah region in the Sultanate of Oman which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. We show the effectiveness and functionality of a new simulation-based water management system for the optimisation and evaluation of different irrigation practices, crop pattern and resulting abstraction scenarios. The results of several optimisation runs indicate that due to contradicting objectives, such as profit-oriented agriculture versus aquifer sustainability only a multi-objective optimisation can provide sustainable solutions for the management of the water resources in respect of the environment as well as the socio-economic development.     

On the geological availability of germanium

Based on a detailed statistical analysis of chemical data published in the scientific literature, estimates were made of the minimum amounts of recoverable Ge contained within sulphidic zinc ores and coals, given current processing technologies. It is expected that at least 119 kt (～7 kt in zinc ores and ～112 kt in coal) of recoverable germanium exist within proven reserves (at present stage of knowledge) at grades in excess of 100 ppm in sphalerite and 200 ppm in coal, while at least 440 kt (～50 kt in zinc ores and ～390 kt in coal) should become recoverable in the future, being associated to coal reserves at 8–200 ppm Ge and zinc resources containing in excess of 100 ppm Ge in sphalerite. Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) deposits are expected to be the most important hosts of germanium-rich sphalerite, while both brown and hard coals are expected to be equally important as hosts of germanium. The approach taken in this publication shows that reliable minimum estimates for the availability of by-product metals lacking suitable reserve/resource data may be attained by using robust statistical methods and geochemical data published in the scientific literature     

Formation and age of sphalerite mineralization in carbonate rocks of Bajocian age in the Swiss Jura Mountains: evidence of Mesozoic hydrothermal activity

A combination of petrographic and geochemical techniques was applied to better constrain the origin and evolution of the fluid systems responsible for the formation of disseminated, Cd-rich (up to 0.6 wt%), sphalerite (ZnS) mineralization in the northeastern part of the Jura Mountains, Switzerland. The Rb–Sr ages of sphalerite samples indicate that a main phase of sphalerite formation occurred near the boundary between the late Middle and early Late Jurassic, at around 162 Ma. The negative δ³⁴S values (?22.3 to ?5.3 ‰) suggest that biogenic sulfide sulfur was involved in ZnS precipitation. The strontium isotope composition is more radiogenic than that of contemporaneous seawater, reflecting the interaction of mineralizing fluids with silicate rocks. Lead isotope signatures are very uniform (²⁰⁶Pb^/204Pb = 18.63–18.67, ²⁰⁷Pb^/204Pb = 15.63–15.64, ²⁰⁸Pb^/204Pb = 38.51–38.63), indicating an isotopically well-homogenized fluid system. The basement rocks underlying the Jurassic strata are considered to be the main source of metals for the sphalerite mineralization. The migration of deep-sourced hydrothermal saline metal-bearing fluids into the Bajocian host carbonates containing sedimentary reduced sulfur resulted in the precipitation of sulfides. The period of sphalerite formation near the Middle–Late Jurassic boundary is characterized by enhanced tectonic and hydrothermal activity in Europe, related to the opening of the Central Atlantic and tectonic/thermal subsidence during spreading of the Alpine Tethys. Our study provides evidence that the Bajocian carbonate rocks in the Jura Mountains area were affected by the circulation of deep-sourced metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids in response to these continent-wide tectonothermal events. The presence of sphalerite mineralization and associated geochemical anomalies in Zn and Cd contents in carbonate rocks may also be used to trace basement features.     

Toward physical aspects affecting a possible leakage of geologically stored CO2 into the shallow subsurface

In geological formations, migration of CO₂ plume is very complex and irregular. To make CO₂ capture and storage technology feasible, it is important to quantify CO₂ amount associated with possible leakage through natural occurring faults and fractures in geologic medium. Present work examines the fracture aperture effect on CO₂ migration due to free convection. Numerical results reveal that fracture with larger-aperture intensify CO₂ leakage. Mathematical formulation and equations of state for the mixture are implemented within the object-oriented finite element code OpenGeoSys developed by the authors. The volume translated Peng–Robinson equation of state is used for material properties of CO₂ and water.     

Changes in the chemistry of shallow groundwater related to the 2008 injection of CO2 at the ZERT field site, Bozeman, Montana

Approximately 300 kg/day of food-grade CO₂ was injected through a perforated pipe placed horizontally 2–2.3 m deep during July 9–August 7, 2008 at the MSU-ZERT field test to evaluate atmospheric and near-surface monitoring and detection techniques applicable to the subsurface storage and potential leakage of CO₂. As part of this multidisciplinary research project, 80 samples of water were collected from 10 shallow monitoring wells (1.5 or 3.0 m deep) installed 1–6 m from the injection pipe, at the southwestern end of the slotted section (zone VI), and from two distant monitoring wells. The samples were collected before, during, and following CO₂ injection. The main objective of study was to investigate changes in the concentrations of major, minor, and trace inorganic and organic compounds during and following CO₂ injection. The ultimate goals were (1) to better understand the potential of groundwater quality impacts related to CO₂ leakage from deep storage operations, (2) to develop geochemical tools that could provide early detection of CO₂ intrusion into underground sources of drinking water (USDW), and (3) to test the predictive capabilities of geochemical codes against field data. Field determinations showed rapid and systematic changes in pH (7.0–5.6), alkalinity (400–1,330 mg/l as HCO₃), and electrical conductance (600–1,800 μS/cm) following CO₂ injection in samples collected from the 1.5 m-deep wells. Laboratory results show major increases in the concentrations of Ca (90–240 mg/l), Mg (25–70 mg/l), Fe (5–1,200 ppb), and Mn (5–1,400 ppb) following CO₂ injection. These chemical changes could provide early detection of CO₂ leakage into shallow groundwater from deep storage operations. Dissolution of observed carbonate minerals and desorption-ion exchange resulting from lowered pH values following CO₂ injection are the likely geochemical processes responsible for the observed increases in the concentrations of solutes; concentrations generally decreased temporarily following four significant precipitation events. The DOC values obtained are 5 ± 2 mg/l, and the variations do not correlate with CO₂ injection. CO₂ injection, however, is responsible for detection of BTEX (e.g. benzene, 0–0.8 ppb), mobilization of metals, the lowered pH values, and increases in the concentrations of other solutes in groundwater. The trace metal and BTEX concentrations are all significantly below the maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Sequential leaching of core samples is being carried out to investigate the source of metals and other solutes.     

Marine ice-rafted debris records constrain maximum extent of Saalian and Weichselian ice-sheets along the northern Eurasian margin

Ice-rafted debris (IRD) (>2 mm), input in eight sediment cores along the Eurasian continental margin (Arctic Ocean), have been studied over the last two glacial/interglacial cycles. Together with the revised chronologies and new micropaleontological data of two cores from the northern Barents Sea (PS2138) and northeastern Kara Sea (PS2741) spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6 to 1, the IRD data give new insights into the glacial history of northern Eurasian ice-sheets over the last 150 ka. The chronologies of the cores are based on stable isotope records, AMS ¹⁴C datings, paleomagnetic and biostratigraphic data.Extensive episodes of northern Barents Sea ice-sheet growth, probably to the shelf edge, occurred during the late Weichselian (MIS 2) and the Saalian (MIS 6). Major IRD discharge at the MIS 4/3-transition hints to another severe glaciation, probably onto the outer shelf, during MIS 4. IRD-based instabilities of the marine-based ice margin along the northern Barents Sea between MIS 4 and 2 are similar in timing with North Atlantic Heinrich events and Nordic Seas IRD events, suggesting similar atmospheric cooling over a broad region or linkage of ice-sheet fluctuations through small sea-level events.In the relatively low-precipitation areas of eastern Eurasia, IRD peak values during Termination II and MIS 4/3-transition suggest a Kara Sea ice-sheet advance onto the outer shelf, probably to the shelf edge, during glacial MIS 6 and 4. This suggests that during the initial cooling following the interglacials MIS 5, and possibly MIS 7, the combined effect of sustained inflow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean and penetration of moisture-bearing cyclones into easterly direction supported major ice build-up during Saalian (MIS 6) and Mid-Weichselian (MIS 4) glaciation. IRD peak values in MIS 5 indicate at least two advances of the Severnaya Semlya ice-sheet to the coast line during the Early Weichselian. In contrast, a distinct Kara Sea ice advance during the Late Weichselian (MIS 2) is not documented by the IRD records along the northeastern Kara Sea margin.