Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316     

Measurement and implication of "effective" viscosity for rhyolite flow emplacement

Hazardous explosive activity may sporadically accompany the extrusion of silicic lava domes. Modelling of the emplacement of silicic domes is therefore an important task for volcanic hazard assessment. Such modelling has been hampered by a lack of a sufficiently accurate rheological database for silicic lavas with crystals and vesicles. In the present study, the parallel-plate viscometry method was applied to determine the shear viscosity of five natural rhyolitic samples from a vertical section through the Ben Lomond lava dome, Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand. Rheological measurements were performed at volcanologically relevant temperatures (780-950°C) and strain rates (10^-5-10^-7 s^-1). Although these samples are in the metastable state, viscosity determinations, melt composition, as well as water and crystal contents of samples were demonstrably stable during experiments. For samples containing up to 5 vol.% microlites, the composition of the melt, rather than the physical effect of suspended crystals, had greater influence on the effective viscosity of the silicic magma. Samples with 10 vol.% microlites and containing a flow banding defined by microlites show no significant orientational effects on apparent viscosity. The rheological measurements were used together with a simple cooling model to construct thermal and viscosity profiles revealing conditions during the emplacement of the Ben Lomond lava dome.     

A simple method for calculating growth rates of petroleum hydrocarbon plumes

Consumption of aquifer Fe(III) during biodegradation of ground water contaminants may result in expansion of a contaminant plume, changing the outlook for monitored natural attenuation. Data from two research sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons show that toluene and xylenes degrade under methanogenic conditions, but the benzene and ethylbenzene plumes grow as aquifer Fe(III) supplies are depleted. By considering a one-dimensional reaction front in a constant unidirectional flow field, it is possible to derive a simple expression for the growth rate of a benzene plume. The method balances the mass flux of benzene with the Fe(III) content of the aquifer, assuming that the biodegradation reaction is instantaneous. The resulting expression shows that the benzene front migration is retarded relative to the ground water velocity by a factor that depends on the concentrations of hydrocarbon and bioavailable Fe(III). The method provides good agreement with benzene plumes at a crude oil study site in Minnesota and a gasoline site in South Carolina. Compared to the South Carolina site, the Minnesota site has 25% higher benzene flux but eight times the Fe(III), leading to about one-sixth the expansion rate. Although it was developed for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes, the growth-rate estimation method may have applications to contaminant plumes from other persistent contaminant sources.     

The influence of solar‐induced thermal stresses on the mechanical weathering of rocks in humid mid‐latitudes

The role of solar‐induced thermal stresses in the mechanical breakdown of rock in humid‐temperate climates has remained relatively unexplored. In contrast, numerous studies have demonstrated that cracks in rocks found in more arid mid‐latitude locations exhibit preferred northeast orientations that are interpreted to be a consequence of insolation‐related cracking. Here we hypothesize that similar insolation‐related mechanisms may be efficacious in humid temperate climates, possibly in conjunction with other mechanical weathering processes. To test this hypothesis, we collected rock and crack data from a total of 310 rocks at a forested field site in North Carolina (99 rocks, 266 cracks) and at forested and unforested field sites in Pennsylvania (211 rocks, 664 cracks) in the eastern United States. We find that overall, measured cracks exhibit statistically preferred strike orientations (47° ± 16), as well as dip angles (52° ± 24°), that are similar in most respects to comparable datasets from mid‐latitude deserts. There is less variance in strike orientations for larger cracks suggesting that cracks with certain orientations are preferentially propagated through time. We propose that diurnally repeating geometries of solar‐related stresses result in propagation of those cracks whose orientations are favorably oriented with respect to those stresses. We hypothesize that the result is an oriented rock heterogeneity that acts as a zone of weakness much like bedding or foliation that can, in turn, be exploited by other weathering processes. Observed crack orientations vary somewhat by location, consistent with this hypothesis given the different latitude and solar exposure of the field sites. Crack densities vary between field sites and are generally higher on north‐facing boulder‐faces and in forested sites, suggesting that moisture‐availability also plays a role in dictating cracking rates. These data provide evidence that solar‐induced thermal stresses facilitate mechanical weathering in environments where other processes are also likely at play. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cristobalite in a rhyolitic lava dome: evolution of ash hazard

Prolonged and heavy exposure to particles of respirable, crystalline silica-rich volcanic ash could potentially cause chronic, fibrotic disease, such as silicosis, in individuals living in areas of frequent ash fall. Here, we show that the rhyolitic ash erupted from Chaitén volcano, Chile, in its dome-forming phase, contains increased levels of the silica polymorph cristobalite, compared to its initial plinian eruption. Ash erupted during the initial, explosive phase (2–5 May 2008) contained approximately 2 wt.% cristobalite, whereas ash generated after dome growth began (from 21 May 2008) contains 13–19 wt.%. The work suggests that active obsidian domes crystallise substantial quantities of cristobalite on time-scales of days to months, probably through vapour-phase crystallisation on the walls of degassing pathways, rather than through spherulitic growth in glassy obsidian. The ash is fine-grained (9.7–17.7 vol.% <4 μm in diameter, the respirable range) and the particles are mostly angular. Sparse, fibre-like particles were confirmed to be feldspar or glass.     

Recent shifts in coastline change and shoreline stabilization linked to storm climate change

Since cuspate coastlines are especially sensitive to changes in wave climate, they serve as potential indicators of initial responses to changing wave conditions. Previous work demonstrates that Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, North Carolina, which are largely unaffected by shoreline stabilization efforts, have become increasingly asymmetric over the past 30 years, consistent with model predictions for coastline response to increases in Atlantic Ocean summer wave heights and resulting changes in the distribution of wave‐approach angles. Historic and recent shoreline change observations for Cape Fear, North Carolina, and model simulations of coastline response to an increasingly asymmetric wave climate in the presence of beach nourishment, produce comparable differences in shoreline change rates in response to changes in wave climate. Results suggest that the effect of beach nourishment is to compensate for – and therefore to mask – natural responses to wave climate change that might otherwise be discernible in patterns of shoreline change alone. Therefore, this case study suggests that the effects of wave climate change on human‐modified coastlines may be detectable in the spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline stabilization activities. Similar analyses of cuspate features in areas where the change in wave climate is less pronounced (i.e. Fishing Point, Maryland/Virginia) and where local geology appears to exert control on coastline shape (i.e. Cape Canaveral, Florida), suggest that changes in shoreline configuration that may be arising from shifting wave climate are currently limited to sandy wave‐dominated coastlines where the change in wave climate has been most pronounced. However, if hurricane‐generated wave heights continue to increase, large‐scale shifts in patterns of erosion and accretion will likely extend beyond sensitive cuspate features as the larger‐scale coastline shape comes into equilibrium with changing wave conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conventional Oil—The Forgotten Part of the Water-Energy Nexus

The impacts of unconventional oil and gas production via high-volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) on water resources, such as water use, groundwater and surface water contamination, and disposal of produced waters, have received a great deal of attention over the past decade. Conventional oil and gas production (e.g., enhanced oil recovery [EOR]), which has been occurring for more than a century in some areas of North America, shares the same environmental concerns, but has received comparatively little attention. Here, we compare the amount of produced water versus saltwater disposal (SWD) and injection for EOR in several prolific hydrocarbon producing regions in the United States and Canada. The total volume of saline and fresh to brackish water injected into depleted oil fields and nonproductive formations is greater than the total volume of produced waters in most regions. The addition of fresh to brackish “makeup” water for EOR may account for the net gain of subsurface water. The total amount of water injected and produced for conventional oil and gas production is greater than that associated with HVHF and unconventional oil and gas production by well over a factor of 10. Reservoir pressure increases from EOR and SWD wells are low compared to injection of fluids for HVHF, however, the longer duration of injections could allow for greater solute transport distances and potential for contamination. Attention should be refocused from the subsurface environmental impacts of HVHF to the oil and gas industry as a whole.     

Site-dependent models of earthquake ground motion

Random vibration analyses of structural systems subjected to seismic loading are dependent upon the characterization of earthquake ground motion as a stochastic process. The response of structural systems to earthquakes is dependent strongly on the local geological conditions, which should be incorporated into seismological models of ground motion. In the study presented herein, three previously developed ground-motion models are adapted to incorporate site-dependent characteristics. Records obtained from two recording stations in California are used as a basis for the ground-motion models. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators are subjected to ensembles of accelerograms generated from these models, and both elastic and inelastic response are considered. Response statistics are compared to those generated by the analysis of structural response to ensembles of recorded motion from the two sites. The important features of the ground motion for effective reproduction of response statistics are identified, and observations are made on the sensitivity of specific response parameters to site-dependent characteristics of the ground motion.     

Strong variation in weathering of layered rock maintains hillslope‐scale strength under high precipitation

The evolution of volcanic landscapes and their landslide potential are both dependent upon the weathering of layered volcanic rock sequences. We characterize critical zone structure using shallow seismic V_p and V_s profiles and vertical exposures of rock across a basaltic climosequence on Kohala peninsula, Hawai’i, and exploit the dramatic gradient in mean annual precipitation (MAP) across the peninsula as a proxy for weathering intensity. Seismic velocity increases rapidly with depth and the velocity–depth gradient is uniform across three sites with 500–600 mm/yr MAP, where the transition to unaltered bedrock occurs at a depth of 4 to 10 m. In contrast, velocity increases with depth less rapidly at wetter sites, but this gradient remains constant across increasing MAP from 1000 to 3000 mm/yr and the transition to unaltered bedrock is near the maximum depth of investigation (15–25 m). In detail, the profiles of seismic velocity and of weathering at wet sites are nowhere monotonic functions of depth. The uniform average velocity gradient and the greater depths of low velocities may be explained by the averaging of velocities over intercalated highly weathered sites with less weathered layers at sites where MAP > 1000 mm/yr. Hence, the main effect of climate is not the progressive deepening of a near‐surface altered layer, but rather the rapid weathering of high permeability zones within rock subjected to precipitation greater than ~1000 mm/yr. Although weathering suggests mechanical weakening, the nearly horizontal orientation of alternating weathered and unweathered horizons with respect to topography also plays a role in the slope stability of these heterogeneous rock masses. We speculate that where steep, rapidly evolving hillslopes exist, the sub‐horizontal orientation of weak/strong horizons allows such sites to remain nearly as strong as their less weathered counterparts at drier sites, as is exemplified by the 50°–60° slopes maintained in the amphitheater canyons on the northwest flank of the island. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extracting drainage networks and their connectivity using LiDAR data

Policies, measures, and models geared towards flood prevention and managing surface waters benefit from high quality data on the presence and characteristics of drainage ditches. As a cost and labour effective alternative for acquiring such data through field surveys, we propose a method (a) to extract vector data representing ditch drainage networks based on local morphologic features derived from high resolution digital elevation models (DEM) and (b) to identify possible connections in the ditch network by calculating a probability of the connectivity using a logistic regression where the predictor variables are characteristics of the ditch centre lines or derived from the DEM. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) derived DEMs with a 1 m resolution, the method was developed and tested for a mixed agricultural residential area in north‐eastern Belgium. The derived ditch segments had an error of omission of 8% and an error of commission of 5%. The original positional accuracy of the centre lines of the extracted ditches was 0.6 m and could be improved to 0.4 m by shifting each vertex to the position of the lowest LiDAR point located within a radius equal to the spatial resolution of the used DEM. About 69% of the false disconnections in the network were identified and corrected leading to a reduction of the unconnected parts of the ditch network by 71%. The extracted and connected network approximated the reference ditch network fairly well.