The impact of the assimilation of scatterometer winds on surface wind and wave forecasts

Recent work has demonstrated that surface marine winds from the Bureau of Meteorology's operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems are typically underestimated by 5 to 10%. This is likely to cause significant bias in modelled wave fields that are forced by these winds. A simple statistical adjustment of the wind components is shown to reduce the observed bias in Significant Wave Height considerably. The impact of increasing the vertical resolution of the NWP model and assimilating scatterometer data into the model is assessed by comparing the resulting forecast wind and waves to observations. It is found that, in general, the inclusion of scatterometer observations improves the accuracy of the surface wind forecasts. However, most of the improvement is shown to arise from the increased number of vertical levels in the atmospheric model, rather than directly from the use of the observations. When the wave model is forced with surface winds from the NWP model that includes scatterometer data, it is found that the scatterometer assimilation does not reduce the systematic bias in surface wave forecasts, but that the random errors are reduced.     

Relative effects ofLittoraria irrorata andProkelisia marginata onSpartina alterniflora

Spartina alterniflora salt marshes along the southeastern United States are some of the most productive and well studied ecosystems in the world. The role of physicochemical forces in regulatingSpartina growth is well understood, while the importance of grazers remains less clear. Recent studies have shown that the abundant marsh periwinkle,Littoraria irrorata, can exert strong control overSpartina through its grazing activities, but relatively little is known about its relative effects in comparison to other marsh plant consumers. To test the relative importance of snail and insect consumers onSpartina biomass, we conducted a 7-mo field experiment testing top-down regulation ofSpartina with all combinations ofL. irrorata (removed, control, c. 215 periwinkles m⁻²) andSpartina planthopper,Prokelisia marginata (removed, control). Snail removal resulted in a 50% increase inSpartina biomass while removal of planthoppers had no detectable effect. Planthopper density also increased by 50% when snails were excluded. In this South Carolina marsh,L. irrorata exerts a stronger top-down control ofSpartina thanP. marginata. These results indicate trophic cascade regulation ofSpartina salt marsh is more likely to occur through the predator(s)-Littoraria-plant interaction than through the predator(s)-Prokelisia-plant relationship.     

Chained to Development? Livelihoods and global value chains in the coffee-producing Toraja region of Indonesia

ABSTRACT

A popular rural development strategy in recent years has been through the adoption of what has been widely called a ‘value chain approach’, where improved linkages between small producers in underdeveloped rural communities and ‘lead firms’ constitute the foundations for development interventions. Whilst the global value-chain framework can deliver insights into the broad structural processes shaping livelihood possibilities, the adoption of value chains as a development strategy tends to disregard the complexity of smallholder livelihoods that shape poverty alleviation pathways in different contexts. The relationships between global value chains, development interventions, and rural livelihoods are explored in this article through a case study of smallholder coffee farming in the Toraja region of Indonesia. In this case, value-chain interventions in the coffee sector are unlikely to significantly contribute to improved rural welfare due to the diversified reality of local livelihoods, the nuances of how coffee production is embedded within Torajan culture and economy, and excellent prevailing market opportunities. The livelihood framework, therefore, provides an important corrective for the sometimes excessive optimism presented by advocates of a value-chain approach to rural development.     

Facies and flow regimes of sandstone‐hosted columnar intrusions: Insights from the pipes of Kodachrome Basin State Park

Sandstone‐hosted intrusions are found in a wide variety of environments, but remain poorly understood compared with their mudstone‐hosted counterparts. In particular, they remain largely unrecognized in the subsurface, in part because they are problematic to image in seismic data. This study reports on the facies and fluid flow associated with a 20 000 km³ sandstone intrusion province in Utah, USA. Forming a small portion of this intrusion province, the intrusions cropping out in Kodachrome Basin State Park display a very wide array of facies and morphologies, factors which would make their identification in core a significant challenge. Remobilized sediment is shown to have been injected at least 200 m vertically from its source, with flow prolonged enough to concentrate heavy minerals in placer‐style deposits at the pipe margins. Evidence for lateral pipe migration and for associated broader fluidization regions is also presented. A new approach to estimating flow parameters in injectites is implemented herein, and indicates that previous work has overestimated velocities and flow Reynolds numbers by up to two orders of magnitude. Flow modelling suggests turbulent flow in the pipes that is consistent with field observations of erosive margins and chaotic internal structures. Post‐emplacement, these pipes remained as long‐term fluid conduits, as revealed by their diagenetic history, focussing and facilitating flow of extraformational fluids, despite the relatively high porosity and permeability of the aeolian host strata.     

Is Climate Change Shifting the Poleward Limit of Mangroves?

Ecological (poleward) regime shifts are a predicted response to climate change and have been well documented in terrestrial and more recently ocean species. Coastal zones are amongst the most susceptible ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, yet studies particularly focused on mangroves are lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the critical ecosystem services mangroves provide, yet there is a lack of data on temporal global population response. This study tests the notion that mangroves are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent of the mangrove population. Our findings indicate that whilst temperature (land and air) have both increased across the analysed time periods, the data we located showed that mangroves were not consistently extending their latitudinal range across the globe. Mangroves, unlike other marine and terrestrial taxa, do not appear to be experiencing a poleward range expansion despite warming occurring at the present distributional limits. Understanding failure for mangroves to realise the global expansion facilitated by climate warming may require a focus on local constraints, including local anthropogenic pressures and impacts, oceanographic, hydrological, and topographical conditions.     

Application of sky view factor technique to the interpretation and reactivation assessment of landslide activity

High-resolution digital elevation models are crucial to the investigation of natural disasters, and a variety of methods based on visualization and relief map compilations have been proposed. In this study, the sky view factor (SVF) is applied to slope maps and a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Oso landslide, a deadly landslide that occurred in Washington State on March 22, 2014, to demonstrate the effectiveness of SVF-enhanced relief maps in mapping and evaluating large-scale or deep-seated landslide hazards. A procedure for combining the SVF-enhanced DEM with slope and elevation maps is also presented. Then the maps are used to extract the landslide-prone areas and perform a reactivation analysis of the post-Oso landslide using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). By using the SVF-enhanced DEM to perform the AHP assessment on multi-period images, we accurately evaluate hazard of the landslide for both pre and post-2014 conditions. Finally, different visualization maps, limitation and recommend parameters for generating SVF relief map are presented in the paper.     

The Loess/Paleosol record and the nature of the younger Dryas climate in central China

The use of latest Pleistocene-Holocene paleosols in defining Chinese climatic sequences is plagued by poor chronological controls caused primarily by the use of radiocarbon dates derived from bulk soil carbon. Dating of a post-glacial aeolian/paleosol sequence in the Pigeon Mountain basin of north-central China, using culturally deposited charcoal, support a wide array of other data suggesting the Younger Dryas was a period of cooler dryer conditions marked by wide-spread aeolian deposition. Periods of soil formation and higher lake levels bracket this climatic event. Climatic variability immediately before, during and immediately after the Younger Dryas interval is associated with rapid technological elaboration and innovation in the production and use of chipped stone tools, and perhaps, ground stone. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Origin of post‐Minoan caves and volcaniclastic cave fill,Thera (Santorini), Greece

The Aegean island of Thera (Santorini) was covered by tephra from its cataclysmic Late Bronze Age (ca. 3600 yr B.P.) eruption. Vertical exposures of the eruptive sequence show secondary, nonvolcanic, circular (in cross section) features composed of stratified sediment. Many are inaccessible from the floors of modern quarries and appear to be caves filled with younger sediment, but show no connection to the land surface. A filled cave was found in the wall of a modern gully outside the modern quarries, and a filled cave was found in a terrace scarp, well above the modern gully. Natural (and probably rapid) incision by gullies into the thick tephra deposit left many locations with lateral access to tephra. Inhabitants from post‐Minoan to recent times excavated tephra for materials and buildings, and caves were subsequently filled by sporadic (possibly seasonal) flood events that deposited sediment. These gullies may have provided access for modern tephra removal that isolated the filled caves high on the modern quarry walls. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.