There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23–42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in ‘worst case’ climate scenarios. 相似文献
A fully automated system measuring C2–C6 hydrocarbon concentrations and vertical gradients was installed at Harvard Forest in Petersham, Massachusetts, using a gas chromatograph with dual flame ionization detectors and cryogenic sample preconcentration. Measurements were made simultaneously at two heights above the forest canopy at forty five minute intervals, continuously from July 1992 to the present. Data for concentration gradients were combined with CO2 flux measured by eddy correlation to determine the rates of production of biogenic hydrocarbons by the forest. 相似文献
143Nd/144Nd ratios, and Sm and Nd abundances, are reported for particulates from major and minor rivers of the Earth, continental sediments, and aeolian dusts collected over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Overall, Sm/Nd ratios and Nd isotopic compositions in contemporary continental erosion products vary within the small ranges of 147Sm/144Nd= 0.115 ± 0.01 and143Nd/144Nd= 0.51204 ± 0.0002 (εNd = −11.4 ± 4). The average period of residence in the continental crust is estimated to be1.70 ± 0.35Ga.
These results combined with data from the literature have implications for the age, history, and composition of the sedimentary mass and the continental crust: (1) The average “crustal residence age” of the whole sedimentary mass is about 1.9 Ga. (2) The range of Nd isotope compositions in the continent derived particulate input to the oceans is the same as Atlantic sediments and seawater, but lower than those of the Pacific, demonstrating the importance of Pacific volcanism to Pacific Nd chemistry. (3) The average ratio of Sm/Nd is about 0.19 in the upper continental crust, and has remained so since the early Archean. This precludes the likelihood of major mafic to felsic or felsic to mafic trends in the overall composition of the upper continental crust through Earth history. (4) Sediments appear to be formed primarily by erosion of continental crust having similar Sm/Nd ratios, rather than by mixing of mafic and felsic compositions. (5) The average ratio of 143Nd/144Nd≈ 0.5117 (εNd ≈ −17) in the upper continental crust, assuming its mean age is about 2 Ga. (6) The uniformity of the SmNd isotopic systematics in river and aeolian particulates primarily reflects efficient recycling of old sediment by sedimentary processes on a short time scale compared to the amount of time the material has resided in the crust. 相似文献
Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050. 相似文献