Stochastic Distance Based Geological Boundary Modeling with Curvilinear Features

Obtaining accurate geological boundaries and assessing the uncertainty in these limits are critical for effective ore resource and reserve estimation. The uncertainty in the extent of an ore body can be the largest source of uncertainty in ore resource estimation when drilling is sparse. These limits are traditionally interpreted deterministically and it can be difficult to quantify uncertainty in the boundary and its impact on ore tonnage. The proposed methodology is to consider stochastic modeling of the ore boundary with a distance function recoding of the available data. This technique is modified to incorporate non-stationarities in the form of a locally varying anisotropy field used in kriging and sequential Gaussian simulation. Implementing locally varying anisotropy kriging retains the geologically realistic features of a deterministic model while allowing for a stochastic assessment of uncertainty. A case study of a gold deposit in Northern Canada is used to demonstrate the methodology. The proposed technique generates realistic, curvilinear geological boundary models and allows for an assessment of the uncertainty in the model.     

The emergence of a Galápagos shield volcano, Roca Redonda

Roca Redonda volcano is a mostly submarine shield volcano that rises nearly 3 km from the adjacent seafloor. Over twenty lava flows and palagonite tuff are exposed in a 60 meter high oblong outcrop above sea level, and several other flows are exposed in the shallow water surrounding the islet. Thick, slightly alkaline picritic flows form the base of the section. Thinner picrites interbedded with sparsely porphyritic alkali-olivine basaltic pahoehoe toes characterize the upper section. The subaerial section probably records the filling of a palagonite tuff cone with younger lavas. Numerous fumaroles that may have a magmatic component are present in the shallow (<30 m) submarine zone and indicate that the volcano is probably still active. Three lava types are exposed: the basal picrites with 19% > MgO > 14%, high-Mg basalts with MgO of about 9%, and low-Mg basalts with MgO of about 6%. The Sr and Nd isotopic ratios of the three lava types are within analytical uncertainty. Olivine compositions indicate that the picrites are basaltic liquids that have accumulated olivine whose composition is in equilibrium with the host basaltic liquid. Apparently, basaltic magmas percolated through dunite and troctolite that had crystallized from slightly older Roca Redonda basaltic magma. Lavas from Roca Redonda have enriched trace element contents and isotopic ratios relative to nearby Wolf volcano, but they are quite similar to lavas from Cerro Azul and Ecuador volcanoes. The common characteristic of these volcanoes is that they lie on the periphery of the archipelago and are in a stage of subaerial growth. This suggests that Galápagos volcanoes may go through a juvenile alkaline stage before a mature tholeiitic stage, analogous to the Loihi stage of Hawaiian volcanism. A low ³He/⁴He ratio in olivine from one of the picrites indicates a small contribution by the Galápagos mantle plume. Received: 15 December 1997 / Accepted: 6 May 1998     

A strain-induced freshwater pump in the Liverpool Bay ROFI

Liverpool Bay is a region of freshwater influence which receives significant freshwater loading from a number of major English and Welsh rivers. Strong tidal current flow interacts with a persistent freshwater-induced horizontal density gradient to produce strain-induced periodic stratification (SIPS). Recent work (Palmer in Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010; Verspecht et al. in Geophys Res Lett 37:L18602, 2010) has identified significant modification to tidal ellipses in Liverpool Bay during stratification due to an associated reduction in pycnocline eddy viscosity. Palmer (Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010) identified that this modification results in asymmetry in flow in the upper and lower layers capable of permanently transporting freshwater away from the Welsh coastline via a SIPS pumping mechanism. Observational data from a new set of observations from the Irish Sea Observatory site B confirm these results; the measured residual flow is 4.0 cm s⁻¹ to the north in the surface mixed layer and 2.4 cm s⁻¹ to the south in the bottom mixed layer. A realistically forced 3D hydrodynamic ocean model POLCOMS succeeds in reproducing many of the characteristics of flow and vertical density structure at site B and is used to estimate the transport of water through a transect WT that runs parallel with the Welsh coast. Model results show that SIPS is the dominant steady state, occurring for 78.2% of the time whilst enduring stratification exists only 21.0% of the year and enduring mixed periods, <1%. SIPS produces a persistent offshore flow of freshened surface water throughout the year. The estimated net flux of water in the surface mixed layer is 327 km³ year ⁻¹, of which 281 km³ year⁻¹ is attributable to SIPS periods. Whilst the freshwater component of this flux is small, the net flux of freshwater through WT during SIPS is significant, the model estimates 1.69 km³ year⁻¹ of freshwater to be transported away from the coast attributable to SIPS periods equivalent to 23% of annual average river flow from the four catchment areas feeding Liverpool Bay. The results show SIPS pumping to be an important process in determining the fate of freshwater and associated loads entering Liverpool Bay.     

Annual to decadal morphodynamics of the foredune system at Greenwich Dunes,Prince Edward Island,Canada

The purpose of this study was to quantify relationships between season, sediment availability, sediment transport pathways, and beach/foredune morphology at Greenwich Dunes, PEI. This was done for periods ranging from a few days to multiple decades using erosion pins, bedframe measurements, annual surveys, and digital photogrammetry using historical aerial photographs. The relative significance of seasonal/annual processes versus response of the foredune system to broader geomorphic controls (e.g. relative sea level rise, storms, etc.) was also assessed. The data show that there are clear seasonal differences in the patterns of sand supply from the beach to the foredune at Greenwich and that there are differences in sediment supply to the foredune between the east and west reaches of the study area, resulting in ongoing differences in foredune morphology. They also demonstrate that models that incorporate wind climate alone, or even models that include other factors like beach moisture, would not be able to predict the amount of sediment movement from the beach to the foredune in this environment unless there were some way to parameterize system morphology, especially the presence or absence of a dune ramp. Finally, the data suggest that the foredune can migrate landward while maintaining its form via transfers of sediment from the stoss slope, over the crest, and onto the lee slope. Although the rate of foredune development or recovery after disturbance changes over time due to morphological feedback, the overall decadal evolution of the foredune system at Greenwich is consistent with, and supports, the Davidson‐Arnott (2005) conceptual model of dune transgression under rising sea level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.     

Building and Testing an <Emphasis Type="Italic">a priori</Emphasis> Geophysical Model for Western Eurasia and North Africa

We construct and evaluate a new three-dimensional model of crust and upper mantle structure in Western Eurasia and North Africa (WENA) extending to 700 km depth and having 1° parameterization. The model is compiled in an a priori fashion entirely from existing geophysical literature, specifically, combining two regionalized crustal models with a high-resolution global sediment model and a global upper mantle model. The resulting WENA1.0 model consists of 24 layers: water, three sediment layers, upper, middle, and lower crust, uppermost mantle, and 16 additional upper mantle layers. Each of the layers is specified by its depth, compressional and shear velocity, density, and attenuation (quality factors, Q _P and Q _S ). The model is tested by comparing the model predictions with geophysical observations including: crustal thickness, surface wave group and phase velocities, upper mantle _n velocities, receiver functions, P-wave travel times, waveform characteristics, regional 1-D velocities, and Bouguer gravity. We find generally good agreement between WENA1.0 model predictions and empirical observations for a wide variety of independent data sets. We believe this model is representative of our current knowledge of crust and upper mantle structure in the WENA region and can successfully be used to model the propagation characteristics of regional seismic waveform data. The WENA1.0 model will continue to evolve as new data are incorporated into future validations and any new deficiencies in the model are identified. Eventually this a priori model will serve as the initial starting model for a multiple data set tomographic inversion for structure of the Eurasian continent.     

Wind erosion of blanket peat during a short period of surface desiccation (North Pennines,Northern England)

Strong winds are a characteristic feature of UK upland areas. Despite this, understanding of aeolian processes in upland environments of the UK is limited. This paper presents direct measurements and observations of blanket peat erosion by wind action during a two week period of desiccation in the North Pennines, Northern England. A circular configuration of mass flux sediment samplers was used to collect peat eroded by wind action from 16 cardinal compass directions. Meteorological conditions (wind speed, wind direction, precipitation and temperature) were recorded by an automatic weather station set up adjacent to the site. Surface desiccation led to peat crust erosion and dust deflation. During short (≤1 hour) periods of precipitation, wind‐driven rainfall also caused erosion. Typically, dust flux rates were up to two orders of magnitude lower than recorded during periods of sustained wet weather. Measurements demonstrate the hitherto unreported rapid switch in process regime between wind‐driven rainfall and dry blow deflation in blanket peat environments. Dry blow processes of blanket peat erosion may become more important in UK upland areas if climate change promotes more frequent surface desiccation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The metallic microstructures and thermal histories of severely reheated chondrites

The metallographic structures of eight severely reheated chondrites (Farmington, Ramsdorf, Orvinio, Wickenburg, Lubbock, Rose City, Arapahoe and Tadjera) have been studied by optical, scanning electron microscope and electron microprobe techniques. Unreheated chondrites and experimentally heat treated chondritic material have also been examined.The following metallographic characteristics can be used to estimate the post-shock residual temperature of reheated chondrites: melted appearance of metal-troilite, presence of martensite, P enrichment of the metal, and the averaging of central metal grain compositions. Metallographic characteristics used to estimate the cooling rates of the severely reheated chondrites are the Ni content of troilite, the Ni gradients in metal grain rims, and the presence of secondary kamacite and phosphides. Farmington, Ramsdorf, Orvinio, Lubbock, Rose City and several of the heat treatment specimens have substantial P in solution in the metal grains ( > 0.1 wt%). P enrichment is apparently caused by reduction of phosphates upon severe reheating and partial melting of metal-troilite areas in chondritic meteorites.The eight severely reheated chondrites studied showed evidence of reheating to temperatures ranging from ～ 950°C to ～ 1250°C. Ramsdorf has the highest reheating temperature (1200–1250°C) and the fastest cooling rate ～ 100°C/day. Wickenberg has the lowest reheating temperature (950–1000°C) and the slowest cooling rate, ～ 1°C/100yrs. Cooling rate estimates correspond to post-reheating burial depths of less than 1 to ～ 1000m.