Vegetation changes in the Jornada Basin from 1858 to 1998

Notes made by land surveyors in 1858 were utilized to estimate cover of grasses and shrubs on the Jornada Experimental Range (JER) and the Chihuahuan Desert Range Research Center (CDRRC) in the northern Chihuahuan Desert in southern New Mexico, USA. Portions of these areas have been previously assessed for historical vegetation dynamics but the entire 84,271 ha assessed in the 19th century has not been examined in total. In 1858, fair to very good grass cover occurred on 98% and 67% of the JER and CDRRC, respectively. Shrubs were present throughout both properties but 45% of the JER and 18% of the CDRRC were shrub free. Reconnaissance surveys, made to determine carrying capacity for livestock were made in 1915–1916 and 1928–1929 on the JER and in 1938 on the CDRRC, show that shrubs had made large increases in area occupied at the time of the surveys. Vegetation type maps were made of both properties in 1998. Mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) was the primary dominant on 59% of the JER in 1998 and creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) was the primary dominant on 27% of the area. On the CDRRC mesquite and creosotebush were primary dominants on 37% and 46% of the area, respectively. Grass cover has decreased greatly with the increase in shrubs and only shrub control efforts have maintained the once abundant black grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) as a primary dominant on 1% or less of the area on both properties.     

Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui

Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution.     

Characteristics of concentrated flow hydraulics for rangeland ecosystems: implications for hydrologic modeling

Concentrated flow is often the dominant source of water erosion following disturbance on rangelands. Because of the lack of studies that explain the hydraulics of concentrated flow on rangelands, cropland‐based equations have typically been used for rangeland hydrology and erosion modeling, leading to less accurate predictions due to different soil and vegetation cover characteristics. This study investigates the hydraulics of concentrated flow using unconfined field experimental data over diverse rangeland landscapes within the Great Basin Region, United States. The results imply that the overall hydraulics of concentrated flow on rangelands differ significantly from those of cropland rills. Concentrated flow hydraulics on rangelands are largely controlled by the amount of cover or bare soil and hillslope angle. New predictive equations for concentrated flow velocity (R² = 0·47), hydraulic friction (R² = 0·52), and width (R² = 0·4) representing a diverse set of rangeland environments were developed. The resulting equations are applicable across a wide span of ecological sites, soils, slopes, and vegetation and ground cover conditions and can be used by physically‐based rangeland hydrology and erosion models to estimate rangeland concentrated flow hydraulic parameters. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

SCALES: a large‐scale assessment model of soil erosion hazard in Basse‐Normandie (northern‐western France)

The cartography of erosion risk is mainly based on the development of models, which evaluate in a qualitative and quantitative manner the physical reproduction of the erosion processes (CORINE, EHU, INRA). These models are mainly semi‐quantitative but can be physically based and spatially distributed (the Pan‐European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, PESERA). They are characterized by their simplicity and their applicability potential at large temporal and spatial scales. In developing our model SCALES (Spatialisation d'éChelle fine de l'ALéa Erosion des Sols/large‐scale assessment and mapping model of soil erosion hazard), we had in mind several objectives: (1) to map soil erosion at a regional scale with the guarantee of a large accuracy on the local level, (2) to envisage an applicability of the model in European oceanic areas, (3) to focus the erosion hazard estimation on the level of source areas (on‐site erosion), which are the agricultural parcels, (4) to take into account the weight of the temporality of agricultural practices (land‐use concept). Because of these objectives, the nature of variables, which characterize the erosion factors and because of its structure, SCALES differs from other models. Tested in Basse‐Normandie (Calvados 5500 km²) SCALES reveals a strong predisposition of the study area to the soil erosion which should require to be expressed in a wet year. Apart from an internal validation, we tried an intermediate one by comparing our results with those from INRA and PESERA. It appeared that these models under estimate medium erosion levels and differ in the spatial localization of areas with the highest erosion risks. SCALES underlines here the limitations in the use of pedo‐transfer functions and the interpolation of input data with a low resolution. One must not forget however that these models are mainly focused on an interregional comparative approach. Therefore the comparison of SCALES data with those of the INRA and PESERA models cannot result on a convincing validation of our model. For the moment the validation is based on the opinion of local experts, who agree with the qualitative indications delivered by our cartography. An external validation of SCALES is foreseen, which will be based on a thorough inventory of erosion signals in areas with different hazard levels. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Framework for Groundwater Prediction under Uncertainty

Groundwater prediction models are subjected to various sources of uncertainty. This study introduces a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a hierarchical structure and conduct BMA for concentration prediction. A BMA tree of models is developed to understand the impact of individual sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation to model predictions. HBMA evaluates the relative importance of different modeling propositions at each level in the BMA tree of model weights. The HBMA method is applied to chloride concentration prediction for the “1,500‐foot” sand of the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana from 2005 to 2029. The groundwater head data from 1990 to 2004 is used for model calibration. Four sources of uncertainty are considered and resulted in 180 flow and transport models for concentration prediction. The results show that prediction variances of concentration from uncertain model elements are much higher than the prediction variance from uncertain model parameters. The HBMA method is able to quantify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the total uncertainty.     

An examination of the use of the logratio transformation for the testing of endmember hypotheses

Given a compositional dataset in the absence of any prior information on any mixing process which may have formed it, a complete analysis of mixtures determines three distinct types of estimates in order. These are: (i) the estimate of the number of endmembers or fixed source compositions, of which all the sample compositions of the dataset must be approximate mixtures; (ii) the estimated compositions for each of these chosen number of endmembers; and (iii) the estimated contributions of each of these endmember estimates to each sample. Traditionally, the estimate for the number of endmembers has been assessed either by mapping or by inspection of the coefficients of determination between the observed and estimated variables. Mapping entails the plotting on a map of the region from which the samples were taken, either the contours of the contributions of each endmember to each sample, or some other portrayal of the distribution of endmember abundances. Because it requires the complete analysis, assessment by this method is too elaborate except for final confirmation and display. Alternatively, choosing a number of endmembers, which result in suitability high coefficients of determination for all or most variables, may account for elements which are not part of the conjectured mixing process or, worse, may result in the identification of endmembers which may never in fact have existed. Such an error is similar to overspecifying a multiple regression model. So, the obvious starting point from which to assess the validity, or otherwise choice of endmember numbers, is to examine the matrix of residuals. The differences between the logratio-transformed observed and estimated data form an array of residual logratios. A linear combination of these may be formed for each sample, which, under a random perturbation assumption, should follow a univariate normal distribution. Whether or not this scalar is normal can be readily tested. It can also be examined graphically for such desirable qualities as symmetry when the test for normality may be too severe. This procedure is employed to assess the decompositions of the U.S.G.S. Mid-Pacific data and the Nazca Plate Surface sediments.This paper was presented at the 18th Geochautauqua, Newark, Delaware, 13–14 October 1989.     

Seismotectonics of the Hindukush and Baluchistan arc

A seismicity map of that part of the Pakistan-Afghanistan region lying between the latitudes 28° to 38°N and longitudes 66° to 75°E is given using all available data for the period 1890–1970. The earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above were considered in the preparation of this map. On the basis of this map, it is observed that the seismicity pattern over the well-known Hindukush region is quite complex. Two prominent, mutually orthogonal, seismicity lineaments, namely the northvestern and the north-eastern trends, characterize the Hindukush area. The northwestern trend appears to extend from the Main Boundary Fault of the Kashmir Himalaya on the southeast to the plains of the Amu Darya in Uzbekistan on the northwest beyond the Hindukush. The Sulaiman and Kirthar ranges of Pakistan are well-defined zones of intermontane seismicity exhibiting north-south alignment.Thirty-two new focal-mechanism solutions for the above-mentioned region have been determined. These, together with the results obtained by earlier workers, suggest the pre-dominance of strike-slip faulting in the area. The Hazara Mountains, the Sulaiman wrench zone and the Kirthar wrench zone, as well as the supposed extension of the Murray ridge up to the Karachi coast, appear to be mostly undergoing strike-slip movements.In the Hindukush region, thrust and strike-slip faulting are found to be equally prevalent. Almost all the thrust-type mechanisms belonging to the Hindukush area have both the nodal planes in the NW-SE direction for shallow as well as intermediate depth earthquakes. The dip of P-axes for the events indicating thrust type mechanisms rarely exceeds 35°. The direction of the seismic slip vector obtained through thrust type solutions is always directed towards the northeast. The epicentral pattern together with these results suggest a deep-seated fault zone paralleling the northwesterly seismic zone underneath the Hindukush. This NW-lineament has a preference for thrust faulting, and it appears to extend from the vicinity of the Main Boundary Fault of the Kashmir Himalaya on the southeast of Uzbekistan on the northwest through Hindukush. Almost orthogonal to this NW-seismic zone, there is a NE-seismic lineament in which there is a preference for strike-slip faulting.The above results are discussed from the point of view of convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates in the light of plate tectonics theory.     

In Situ Observations of Solar Wind Stream Interface Evolution

The heliocentric orbits of the two STEREO satellites are similar in radius and ecliptic latitude, with separation in longitude increasing by about 45° per year. This arrangement provides a unique opportunity to study the evolution of stream interfaces near 1 AU over time scales of hours to a few days, much less than the period of a Carrington rotation. Assuming nonevolving solar wind sources that corotate with the Sun, we calculated the expected time and longitude of arrival of stream interfaces at the Ahead observatory based on the in situ solar wind speeds measured at the Behind observatory. We find agreement to within 5° between the expected and actual arrival longitude until the spacecraft are separated by more than 20° in heliocentric inertial longitude. This corresponds to about one day between the measurement times. Much larger deviations, up to 25° in longitude, are observed after 20° separation. Some of the deviations can be explained by a latitude difference between the spacecraft, but other deviations most likely result from evolution of the source region. Both remote and in situ measurements show that changes at the source boundary can occur on a time scale much shorter than one solar rotation. In 32 of 41 cases, the interface was observed earlier than expected at STEREO/Ahead.