Multimodel based superensemble forecasts for short and medium range NWP over various regions of Africa

Summary This study examines the predictability of weather over several regions in Africa using a multimodel superensemble technique developed at the Florida State University, which is an objective means of combining daily forecasts from multilevel global models. It is referred to as FSUSE and up to 7 different models are used to construct the superensemble. The benchmark reanalysis fields used are the precipitation data sets from CMORPH and all other global fields from ECMWF daily operational analysis. The FSUSE works by using multiple linear regression to derive weights from a comparison of each member model forecast to the benchmark analysis during a training period of the most recent 120 days, and these weights are passed to the forecast phase. This procedure removes the bias of each model and allows for an optimal linear combination of the individual model forecasts by taking account of the relative skill of each model to give a consensus forecast that is superior to the ensemble mean and all the members. Results show that bad models and poor analysis fields used during the training phase degrade the skill of the FSUSE. In the forecasts of rainfall events over all regions of Africa, the FSUSE root-mean-square (R M S) error, equitable threat skill score (E T S), and bias on the daily forecasts of rainfall were invariably superior to the best member model. The skills deteriorate as the forecast lead time in days increases, with the degradation being most significant beyond day 3. In all cases, the bias score of the FSUSE was approximately 1, while the anomaly correlation scores were to the order of 0.9. These scores indicate the robustness of the FSUSE forecasts. Over East Africa, the FSUSE forecasts were consistent with the spatial-temporal pattern of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the main rain bearing synoptic mechanism across tropical Africa. Thus, in addition to superior forecasts, the use of FSUSE based data sets may provide a better understanding of the dynamical processes within the ITCZ over the region. These results could be further improved if the daily series of operational analysis had included gauge data and if the resolution were higher. It is hardly possible to get uniformly consistent and continuous daily observations over these diverse regions of Africa. However, given the availability of the satellite based estimates of daily rainfall, such as CMORPH and global analysis that are exchanged very fast nowadays, the FSUSE scheme for numerical weather predictions (N W P) provides useful medium range weather forecasts in real-time.     

Rhenium in rivers and estuaries of India: Sources,transport and behaviour

The concentration of dissolved and particulate Re have been measured in the Narmada, Tapi and the Mandovi estuaries in the Arabian Sea and the Hooghly estuary in the Bay of Bengal. Re concentration in water and particulate matter of these estuaries is highly variable. Re in river waters analysed varies from 1 to 41 pmol/kg, the lowest in the Mandovi and the highest in the Mahi river. Re concentrations in the rivers analysed except in the Mandovi river are higher than the average global riverine Re concentration of 2.1 pmol/kg. Based on this study and the available data, the contemporary global annual flux of dissolved riverine Re is estimated to be ~ 350 × 10³ mol with an average concentration of ~ 9.2 pmol/kg, much higher than the earlier estimates. Residence time of Re in the oceans based on this estimate is 175,000 years, ~ 4 times lower compared to earlier estimates. Re behaves conservatively in all the estuaries studied. Re concentrations of seawater in the Bay of Bengal and in the Arabian Sea, estimated from the data of the Hooghly and the Mandovi estuaries respectively are ~ 40 pmol/kg, similar to the open ocean Re values of the Arabian Sea measured in this study and the values reported for in other oceanic regions. However, the dissolved Re in the Gulf of Cambay is 2 to 5 times higher, consistent with the high Re measured in the Mahi estuary and in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Cambay. The source of high Re in the Gulf of Cambay seems to be anthropogenic, measurements of Re in rivers and industrial waste waters draining into the Gulf supply amount to ~ 2300 mol of Re annually. This anthropogenic supply coupled with high residence time of water in the Gulf contribute to its high Re. Re concentration in suspended sediments of the Narmada estuary varies from 1 to 2 pmol/g, and does not show any discernible trend with salinity.The contemporary global riverine Re supply to the oceans estimated in this study is ~ 2–4 times higher compared to its removal in the reducing (anoxic/suboxic) sediments, indicating non-steady state of Re in the ocean. High dissolved riverine Re flux coupled with high Re content in the Gulf of Cambay highlights the need of a detailed study of Re in the various global rivers and in oceans including coastal regions and semi enclosed basins of the world to understand its behaviour in various reservoirs and to constrain the residence time of Re in the ocean.     

Shallow lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary beneath Cambay Rift Zone of India: Inferred presence of carbonated partial melt

A vast area between Phalodi in Jodhpur and Pokaran in Jaisalmer district of western Rajasthan, is occupied distinctly by rocky, shallow gravelly surfaces and occasional hills. These surfaces exhibit quartz and quartzite pebbles, angular, sub-angular and few rounded sandstone gravels, have slightly convex outline and can be best described as desert pavements. Such land features assume significance because of their extent and variability under a dominantly dry aeolian environment. Morphology and distributional pattern of such formations indicate that sediments are either of in situ origin or may have been transported to a short distance. The present study is based on field level assessment of such surfaces in the above two desert districts. Over much of the area, the profile shows a surficial concentration of gravels followed by thick sand and silt mixed with gravels and then the parent material. There are also occasional rock outcrops of very low relief exhibiting vertical, horizontal and conchoidal pattern of fractures over these surfaces near Pokaran and north of Jaisalmer which indicate disintegration of rocks under extreme diurnal fluctuation of temperature. Such manifestations in the morphology indicate impact of both thermal as well as aeolian processes. In the east of Jaisalmer town near Basanpir and Bhojka, the pavement surfaces are found covered with abundant sub-rounded to rounded pebbles and cobbles. This type of condition would indicate a profound action by fluvial activities followed by wind sorting. Our study found significant spatial variability in the distribution of pavement surfaces, which carried imprints of climatic fluctuations and environment of deposition during Holocene.