The effects of frequency-dependent quasar variability on the celestial reference frame

We examine the relationship between source position stability and astrophysical properties of radio-loud quasars making up the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2). Understanding this relationship is important for improving quasar selection and analysis strategies, and therefore reference frame stability. We construct flux density time series, known as light curves, for 95 of the most frequently observed ICRF2 quasars at both the 2.3 and 8.4 GHz geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observing bands. Because the appearance of new quasar components corresponds to an increase in quasar flux density, these light curves alert us about potential changes in source structure before they appear in VLBI images. We test how source position stability depends on three astrophysical parameters: (1) flux density variability at X band; (2) time lag between flares in S and X bands; (3) spectral index root-mean-square (rms), defined as the variability in the ratio between S and X band flux densities. We find that the time lag between S and X band light curves provides a good indicator of position stability: sources with time lags $<$ 0.06 years are significantly more stable ( $>$ 20 % improvement in weighted rms) than sources with larger time lags. A similar improvement is obtained by observing sources with low $(<$ 0.12) spectral index variability. On the other hand, there is no strong dependence of source position stability on flux density variability in a single frequency band. These findings can be understood by interpreting the time lag between S and X band light curves as a measure of the size of the source structure. Monitoring of source flux density at multiple frequencies therefore appears to provide a useful probe of quasar structure on scales important to geodesy. The observed astrometric position of the brightest quasar component (the core) is known to depend on observing frequency. We show how multi-frequency flux density monitoring may allow the dependence on frequency of the relative core positions along the jet to be elucidated. Knowledge of the position–frequency relation has important implications for current and future geodetic VLBI programs, as well as the alignment between the radio and optical celestial reference frames.     

Modeling errors in upward continuation for INS gravity compensation

Accurate upward continuation of gravity anomalies supports future precision, free-inertial navigation systems, since the latter cannot by themselves sense the gravitational field and thus require appropriate gravity compensation. This compensation is in the form of horizontal gravity components. An analysis of the model errors in upward continuation using derivatives of the standard Pizzetti integral solution (spherical approximation) shows that discretization of the data and truncation of the integral are the major sources of error in the predicted horizontal components of the gravity disturbance. The irregular shape of the data boundary, even the relatively rough topography of a simulated mountainous region, has only secondary effect, except when the data resolution is very high (small discretization error). Other errors due to spherical approximation are even less important. The analysis excluded all measurement errors in the gravity anomaly data in order to quantify just the model errors. Based on a consistent gravity field/topographic surface simulation, upward continuation errors in the derivatives of the Pizzetti integral to mean altitudes of about 3,000 and 1,500 m above the mean surface ranged from less than 1 mGal (standard deviation) to less than 2 mGal (standard deviation), respectively, in the case of 2 arcmin data resolution. Least-squares collocation performs better than this, but may require significantly greater computational resources.     

Determination of land degradation causes in Tongyu County,Northeast China via land cover change detection

Tongyu County in Northeast China is highly prone to land degradation due to its fragile physical settings characterized by a flat topography, a semi-arid climate, and a shallow groundwater table. This study aims to determine the causes of land degradation through detecting the long-term trend of land cover changes. Degraded lands were mapped from satellite images recorded in 1992 and 2002. These land cover maps revealed that the area subject to land degradation in the form of soil salinization, waterlogging and desertification increased from 2400 to 4214 km², in sharp contrast to most severely degraded land that decreased by 122.5 km². Newly degraded land stems from productive farmland (263 km²), harvested farmland (551 km²), and grassland (468 km²). Therefore, the worsened degradation situation is attributed to excessive reclamation of grassland for farming, over cultivation, overgrazing, and deforestation. Mechanical, biological, ecological and engineering means should be adopted to rehabilitate the degraded land.     

A Brief History of Star Formation and Chemical Enrichment in the Bulge of the Milky way

Observations of the stellar content of the bulge of the Milky Way can provide critical guidelines for the interpretation of observations of distant galaxies, in particular for understanding their stellar content and evolution. In this brief overview I will first highlight some recent work directed towards measuring the history of star formation and the chemical composition of the central few parsecs of the Galaxy. These observations point to an episodic history of star formation in the central region with several bursts having occurred over the past few 100 Myr (e.g. Blum et al., 1996b). High resolution spectroscopic observations by Ramírez et al. (1998) of luminous M stars in this region yield a near solar value for [Fe/H] from direct measurements of iron lines. Then I will present some results from an ongoing program by my colleagues and myself the objective of which is the delineation of the star formation and chemical enrichment histories of the central 100 parsecs of the Galaxy, the `inner bulge'. From new photometric data we have concluded that there is a small increase in mean [Fe/H] from Baade's Window to the Galactic Center and deduce a near solar value for stars in the central region. For radial distances greater than 1^° from the Galactic Center we fail to find a measurable population of stars that are significantly younger than those in Baade's Window. Within 1^° we find a number of luminous M giants that most likely are the result of a star formation episode not more than one or two Gyr ago. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Charged dust in the outer planetary magnetospheres

We assume that typical interplanetary grains are fragile, aggregates of the Brownlee type, and discuss the physical and dynamical processes associated with their entry into the Jovian magnetosphere. Limiting ourselves to the equatorial plane of the planet, we show that grains traversing the outer edge of the co-rotating magnetodisc (r35R _J ) are rapidly charged up to large negative potentials on both the day and the night sides. A parent grain of radiusR _g 20 is electrostatically disrupted when it attains a potential of about –220 V. While the eventual potential achieved by the smallest fragments (R _g 0.1 ) are controlled by the rapid field emission of electrons, those of the larger fragments (R _g 1 ) are set by the plasma and photoemission currents.All the negatively charged fragments are strongly attracted towards the planet by the (radial) corotational electric field and some are stably trapped. We suggest that the sudden enhancement by about 2 orders of magnitude of the interplanetary dust flux measured by Pioneer 10, at about 30R _J from Jupiter result from the combination of these two effects.The different brightness asymmetries between the leading and the trailing sides of the outer and inner Galilean satellites appear to be a natural consequence of the way the trajectories of these charged dust grains intersect these satellite surfaces. Finally, the similarity in the brightness asymmetries between the Jovian and Saturnian satellites, and our belief that they have a similar cause, leads us to the expectation that Saturn's magnetic momentM and spin , are parallel as in the case of Jupiter, with the limit of plasma co-rotation lying between the satellites Rhea and Iapetus.     

Scientific observations at total solar eclipses

The occasion of the longest totality of an eclipse in the 18 yr 11^1/3 d saros cycle leads to taking stock of the scientific value of ground-based eclipse observations in this space age. Though a number of space satellites from the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Russia study the Sun, scientists at eclipses can observe the solar chromosphere and corona at higher spatial resolution, at higher temporal resolution, and at higher spectral resolution than are possible aloft. Furthermore, eclipse expeditions can transport a wide variety of state-of-the-art equipment to the path of totality. Thus, for at least some years to come, solar eclipse observations will remain both scientifically valuable and cost-effective ways to study the outer solar atmosphere.     

Grassland productivity in an alpine environment in response to climate change

Situated in a climatically stressful environment, alpine grassland is sensitive to subtle climate changes in its productivity. We remedy the current deficiency in studying grassland productivity by taking the integrated effect of all relevant factors into consideration. The relative importance of temperature, rainfall and evaporation to the alpine grassland productivity in western China was determined through analysis of their relationship with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between 1981 and 2000. Climate warming stimulated grassland productivity in the 1980s, but hampered it in the 1990s. Temperature is more important than rainfall to grassland productivity early in the growing season. However, their relative importance is reversed late in the growing season. Monthly summer month rainfall modified by maximum monthly temperature is a good predictor of alpine grassland productivity at 62.0 per cent. However, the best predictor is water deficiency, which is able to improve the estimation accuracy to 78.3 per cent. Hence, the impact of temperature on grassland productivity is better studied indirectly through evaporation.     

Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.     

De(re)forestation and climate warming in subarctic China

Although tropical deforestation bears a close relationship with climate change, its exact contribution to climate warming and its threshold of exerting a noticeable influence remain unknown. This study attempts to bridge this knowledge gap by analyzing deforestation data of Heilongjiang Province, China in relation to climate data. It is found that forest cover was reduced from 238,335 km² in 1958 to 216,009 km² in 1980, and further to 207,629 km² in 2000. During this period the provincial annual temperature rose by 1.68 °C, against the nation-wide warming of 0.99 °C during the same period. At the provincial level the observed deforestation caused a warming in the vicinity of 0.69 °C. This warming does not bear any definite relationship with latitude and elevation. At the local scale, deforestation is related inversely to the rise in decadal temperature in the form of ΔT = −0.013ΔF + 0.4114 (R² = 0.30). There is a positive relationship between the accuracy (R² value) of predicting climate warming from deforestation and its severity. The critical threshold for deforestation to exert a noticeable impact on climate warming (e.g., R² = 50%) appears to be 5 km². The amount of forest cover at the beginning of a period can inhibit temperature rise, but its exact effect on climate warming is difficult to quantify.