Simulation of the 2004 tsunami of Les Saintes in Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles) using new source constraints

Natural Hazards - The arc of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a significant tectonic activity due to the subduction of the Atlantic oceanic plate under the Caribbean plate. Earthquakes in...     

Eco‐physiological repercussions of dietary arachidonic acid in cell membranes of active tissues of the Gray whale

The radiation of the mammalian land species that became the baleen whales happened about 27–34 Mya. Mammals require omega 6 fatty acids for reproduction. With this long exposure to the omega 3‐rich marine food chain, the Gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) might be expected to have lost its requirement for omega 6 fatty acids. We report an unexpectedly high content of omega 6 arachidonic acid (ArA) in the Gray whale liver and muscle lipids. This whale migrates 10,000 km from the cold polar, omega 3 oil‐rich food chain to that of the breeding lagoons of the tropical waters. The food web of tropical waters is a source of omega 6 fatty acids, which are hardly present in the cold polar food web. We suggest the reason for this longest of migrations from cold to warm waters is to meet the requirement for omega 6 fatty acids for mammalian reproduction and brain growth. This extreme conservation of omega 6 fatty acids in Gray whale biology has critical implications for mammalian biology and especially for whale conservation.     

Freezing-resistant liquid water in porous media, a possible mechanism to account for the fluidized transport of sediments on Mars: an example from East Gorgonum crater

ABSTRACT A mudflow-like deposit resting on the bottom of the East Gorgonum Crater (Mars; 37.4°S, 168.0°W) may provide new insight regarding the debate on the existence of water over the Martian surface. Because water in a mudflow is confined to a porous medium, we analyse this case from the perspective of non-equilibrium systems. Fluids confined to porous media behave in a special way, the system being ruled by kinetic restrictions, which alter the expected thermodynamic equilibrium. These non-equilibrium conditions allow the existence of pure liquid water to temperatures as low as − 40 °C, and even less if the system includes brines. Thus, application of the triple point diagram of water on the Martian surface may constitute a simplistic approach if we are dealing with confined, and yet moving, water in the form of a mudflow. We further suggest that the V-shaped channels excavated alongside the mudflow may have been caused by water rejected by syneresis from the moving sediment. We finally indicate that the series of deeply entrenched channels and debris aprons that occur only in the northern half of the crater might be related to the regional slope, which decreases in altitude to the south.     

ROCESSES OF EPHEMERAL GULLY EROSION

IINTRoDUCTIONEphemeralgulliesaresmallerosionalchannelsonagriculturalIandscapescausedbytheconcentrationofoverlandflowtypicallybetweentwoopposingslopes(ahollow),oftenformedduringasingIerainfaIlevent.Sincethescouredsoilvolumeisnotverylargewithinthesegullies,farmerscaneasilyrefillthem.Ingeneral,ephemeralgulliescanreappearatornearthesamelocationonayearlybasisbecausethesurfacetopograPhyofthefielddoesnotchangeappreciably.Mostephemeralgulliesoccuroncultivatedfieldswithhighlyerodiblesoils,withlit…     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mesoscale model downscaled hydro‐meteorological variables for discharge prediction

Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for rainfall–runoff modelling. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground‐based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. This study explores the performance of rainfall and ETo data from the global European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA interim reanalysis data for the discharge prediction. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model coupled with the NOAH Land Surface Model is used for the retrieval of hydro‐meteorological variables by downscaling ECMWF datasets. The conceptual Probability Distribution Model (PDM) is chosen for this study for the discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimations are taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction in the case study catchment in England following the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. The goodness of calibration and prediction uncertainty is judged on the basis of the p‐factor (observations bracketed by the prediction uncertainty) and the r‐factor (achievement of small uncertainty band). The overall analysis suggests that the uncertainty estimates using WRF downscaled ETo have slightly smaller p and r values (p= 0.65; r= 0.58) as compared to ground‐based observation datasets (p= 0.71; r= 0.65) during the validation and hence promising for discharge prediction. On the contrary, WRF precipitation has the worst performance, and further research is needed for its improvement (p= 0.04; r= 0.10). Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts using empirical and theoretical uncertainty models

Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tree-ring reconstructed dry season rainfall in Guatemala

Climate Dynamics - Drought in Guatemala has negative consequences for agriculture and potable water supplies, particularly in regions of the country with highly seasonal rainfall. General...