The BEEP project in the Baltic Sea: overview of results and outline for a regional biological effects monitoring strategy

Field studies in the framework of the EU funded BEEP project (Biological Effects of Environmental Pollution in Marine Coastal Ecosystems, 2001-2004) aimed at validating and intercalibrating a battery of biomarkers of contaminant exposure and effects in selected indicator species in the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic and the Baltic Seas. Major strategic goals of the BEEP project were the development of a sensitive and cost-efficient biological effects monitoring approach, delivery of information and advice to end-user groups, and the implementation of a network of biomarker researchers around Europe. Based on the main results obtained in the Baltic Sea component of the BEEP the present paper summarises and assesses the applicability of biomarkers for different regions and species in this sea area. Moreover, a general strategy and some practical considerations for the monitoring of biological effects in the Baltic Sea are outlined.     

Selected aspects of the stability assessment of slopes with the assumption of cylindrical slip surfaces

A comprehensive analysis of maintaining stability by model homogeneous and stratified slopes, with possible surcharge loading, is carried out within the article. Calculations are performed by the Swedish method of Fellenius under the assumption of a cylindrical slip surface passing through the slope foot. Proposals for searching for the reach of the break-off wedge of a potential slip surface are put forward. An analysis of the effect of surcharge load location on general slope stability is also made, providing the capability to determine the safe distance of positioning of an excavator on the surcharge of a non-encased excavation.     

Tensional crack development in physical models with inhomogeneities under load

Summary The paper deals with a study of the mean stress field (_M) and its gradient (_M/x) in uniaxially loaded two-dimensional models of small thickness with respect to other dimensions, in which two inhomogeneities, e.g., a circular opening and a linear slit have been made. Particular attention was paid to the stress field development in the treated models durin gthe change of the mutual geometric configuration of both the inhomogeneities in question. The problem was analysed theoretically by means of Muskhelishvili's potentials of the two-dimensional theory of elasticity. To compare the results of calculations, the schlieren method was used to visualize and record the studied gradients of stress fields in physical models. The results of the calculations were calibrated by laboratory tests. In this way the individual model situations were classified from the point of view of their resistance to the applied load.     

Solution of the downward continuation problem by collocation

Summary The modern satellite techniques enable to measure the gravity acceleration in space. The downward continuation of this measurements to the earth's surface is by the closed theory practically impossible. Using the method of collocation we can estimate the values of Δ g in the limited region underneath the observation with a little loss of accuracy. Results of some numerical tests for elevation of 300 km are presented.     

Analysis of the high-resolution Mg XI X-ray spectra

In Part IV of the series of papers about the analysis of the INTERCOSMOS 16 ADP spectra a method is developed to evaluate plasma densities from measured resonance, intercombination, and forbidden helium-like Mg xi line intensities, using plots of the so-called G and R ratios. The density is close to the low-density limit. For the active region McMath 14352 a correlation between mean plasma density and electron temperature has been found, in agreement with earlier results. In an appendix systematic differences between measured and calculated line fluxes in all bands A to F are discussed.     

Factors Controlling Seismic Susceptibility of the Sele Valley Slopes: The Case of the 1980 Irpinia Earthquake Re-Examined

Most of the documented slope failures triggered by the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (M_s 6.9) occurred in the upper Sele valley epicentral area (southern Italy). The early investigations revealed some puzzling characteristics of the slope failure distribution, i.e., (i) the higher landslide concentration on the valley slopes located farther away from the earthquake fault; (ii) the predominance of re-activations over first-time movements. The analyses of factors controlling the landslide concentrations indicates that the differences in hydrological setting and in slope were the two main causal factors whereas the seismic shaking, according to the radiation pattern modelling, could have been characterised by a relatively low rate of decrease across the valley. The aspect of the slopes did not play a significant role. The differences in groundwater conditions between the western and eastern valley sides were probably enhanced by the earthquake. In addition to the probable pore-water pressure rise, the seismic shaking caused large increases in the flow of springs draining the western aquifer, and this made the adjacent flysch slopes more prone to landsliding. Data from the available literature suggest that the effects of earthquake-induced groundwater release on seismic landslide distribution is especially important for normal-fault events. The Sele valley case also indicates that the slope of the pre-existing landslides is an important factor controlling their susceptibility to seismic re-activations.     

Impact of the surface temperature and vertical shear of zonal wind on the dynamics of a simple two-layer model of the atmosphere

The paper presents and analyzes, from the point of view of smooth dynamic systems theory, a two-layer baroclinic model of the troposphere in geostrophic approximation. The model describes airflow in β-channel within the tropospheric part of the main Hadley circulation cell. It enables to obtain, after application of the Galerkin method, a fairly simple low-parametric dynamic system describing the phenomena of non-linear interactions, bifurcations and blocking in the atmosphere. This enables to take into consideration such basic factors influencing the atmospheric dynamics like the heat exchange within the surface, orography, vertical variability of zonal wind and hydrostatic stability. Impact of zonal thermal variability of the surface and vertical shear of zonal wind in the troposphere on the orographic bifurcation was investigated and the oscillation character in the dynamic system after Hopf bifurcation of the second kind was analyzed. Additionally, the model dynamics was investigated in conditions including momentum forcing in the upper and lower parts of the troposphere and excluding orographic interaction, as well as in the conditions of thermal interaction between the troposphere and the surface for the vertical shear of zonal wind in both tropospheric layers. Impact of the mean zonal wind in the troposphere on the properties of model dynamics was assessed. It was proved that zonally varied surface temperature and layered mean zonal wind in the atmosphere are the parameters that have basic influence on the model dynamics. They cause numerous bifurcations and strongly influence the periods of oscillations of the model variables. They are often Hopf bifurcations of the second kind during which tropospheric states fairly distant from the ones before the bifurcations are generated. This significantly influences the model predictability.     

Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: An evaluation of six models and a new generator

Six variations of multiplicative random cascade models for generating fine-resolution (i.e., 5-minute interval) rainfall time series were evaluated for rainfall in Wroclaw, Poland. Of these variations, one included a new beta-normal generator for a microcanonical cascade. This newly proposed model successfully reproduces the statistical behavior of local 5-minute rainfalls, in terms of intermittency as well as variability. In contrast, both the canonical cascade models with either constant or time-scaled parameters and a microcanonical cascade model with a beta generator substantially underestimate 5-minute maximum rainfall intensities. The canonical models also fail to properly reproduce the intermittency of the rainfall process across a range of timescales. New observations are also made concerning the histograms of the breakdown coefficients (BDC). The tendency of the BDC histograms to have values exactly equal to 0.5 is identified and explained by the quality of pluviograph records. Moreover, the hierarchical evolution of BDC histograms from beta-like for long time steps to beta-normal histograms for short time steps is observed for the first time. The potential advantage is shown of synthetic high resolution rainfall time series generated by the revised microcanonical model for use in hydrology, especially hydrodynamic modelling of urban drainage networks.