The influence of context on lifeline behavior: Local policies under wind storm and earthquake scenarios

Local policies can play an important role in establishing a context that shapes vulnerability and influences subsequent recovery of lifelines under the natural hazards of extreme wind and seismic events. External factors, such as access availability, have long been known to influence the rate of restoration of utility systems following blackouts. Thus, since system performance takes place within a socio-technical-political context, it can be anticipated that selected local policies may also influence either the geographic extent of damage or the rate of restoration or both. This project empirically validates the assumption that selected local non-design policies establish a context that significantly (measurably) influences system functionality in terms of spatial extent and duration of outage.     

The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises.     

Entanglement of Australian sea lions and New Zealand fur seals in lost fishing gear and other marine debris before and after Government and industry attempts to reduce the problem

In recent years, Australian governments and fishing industry associations have developed guiding principles aimed at reducing the impact of fishing on non-target species and the benthos and increasing community awareness of their efforts. To determine whether they reduced seal entanglement in lost fishing gear and other marine debris, we analysed Australian sea lion and New Zealand fur seal entanglement data collected from Kangaroo Island, South Australia. Contrary to our expectations, we found that entanglement rates did not decrease in recent years. The Australian sea lion entanglement rate (1.3% in 2002) and the New Zealand fur seal entanglement rate (0.9% in 2002) are the third and fourth highest reported for any seal species. Australian sea lions were most frequently entangled in monofilament gillnet that most likely originated from the shark fishery, which operates in the region where sea lions forage--south and east of Kangaroo Island. In contrast, New Zealand fur seals were most commonly entangled in loops of packing tape and trawl net fragments suspected to be from regional rock lobster and trawl fisheries. Based on recent entanglement studies, we estimate that 1478 seals die from entanglement each year in Australia. We discuss remedies such as education programs and government incentives that may reduce entanglements.     

Long-term changes in polychaete assemblages of Botany Bay (NSW, Australia) following a dredging event

The long-term effects of marine aggregate dredging on near-shore benthic assemblages are still largely unknown, despite a global increase in demand for, and extraction of, marine aggregates. This study assessed the state of recovery of polychaete assemblages in Botany Bay, temperate NSW, Australia, at sites dredged for aggregate material more than 10 years previously. Sedimentary and faunal samples were collected from impact sites in Botany Bay, and from reference sites in nearby Pittwater estuary. This study was based on, and included data from, a study conducted by the Australian Museum at the same sites in the 2 years following cessation of dredging. Abundance, species richness and evenness of polychaetes, as well as overall polychaete assemblage structure, were compared between localities over time.     

Mitigation Lessons from the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami

— The July 17, 1998 tsunami killed over 2,100 people, injured at least 800 severely enough to require hospitalization, permanently displaced over 10,000 and disrupted the social and economic framework of the coastal communities of eastern Saundaun Province, Papua New Guinea. Initial response to the disaster was delayed 16 hours because of the failure to communicate the magnitude of the impact outside the affected area. Once the scope of the disaster was known, international assistance was rapid and substantial. Medical teams, supplies, air transport and mobile field hospitals were provided to assist national medical personnel and facilities. Seven care centers were established for the displaced survivors. Nineteen countries and 17 NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) donated money, relief and rebuilding supplies valued at over 6 million US$ in addition to substantial contributions from national recovery funds and the Catholic Diocese. The three Malol villages, two Arop, four Sissano and the Warupu village were permanently abandoned and new villages established inland. Closure of the lagoon and restriction of coastal fishing impacted adjacent villages as well as tsunami survivors. By the second anniversary of the tsunami construction of schools, water and sanitation systems and some roads had been completed. Survivors were provided tools and building supplies to construct new homes, canoes and fishing equipment. Relief and recovery efforts were complicated by coordination difficulties among the many responding agencies and organizations, the disruption of daily routines for both survivors and villages hosting the care centers, and the intrusion of outside aid workers in a region that had been isolated before the disaster. Adaptation to the new village sites has been difficult due to their inland locations that are hotter, more insect-infested and have water and sanitation difficulties. The high number of casualties from the tsunami was the result of several factors: Population concentrated in the area of maximum tsunami impact. Date and time of occurrence. Siting of villages on vulnerable sand spits. Failure of residents to self-evacuate after feeling the earthquake. Substantial delay in mobilizing response. However, further losses were likely reduced because of the rapid deployment of air transport and medical teams, and massive international relief support. The tsunami has affected long-term tsunami mitigation in the Sissano region through the relocation of villages, heightened awareness and education programs. It has also had a significant effect on mitigation in other countries by illuminating the potential dangers of landslide-generated tsunamis and in media coverage of tsunami hazards.     

Fe isotopic fractionation during mineral dissolution with and without bacteria

Fe released into solution is isotopically lighter (enriched in the lighter isotope) than hornblende starting material when dissolution occurs in the presence of the siderophore desferrioxamine mesylate (DFAM). In contrast, Fe released from goethite dissolving in the presence of DFAM is isotopically unchanged. Furthermore, Δ⁵⁶Fe_{solution-hornblende} for Fe released to solution in the presence of ligands varies with the affinity of the ligand for Fe. The extent of isotopic fractionation of Fe released from hornblende also increases when experiments are agitated continuously. The Fe isotope fractionation observed during hornblende dissolution with organic ligands is attributed predominantly to retention of ⁵⁶Fe in an altered surface layer, while the lack of isotopic fractionation during goethite dissolution in DFAM is consistent with the lack of an altered layer. When a siderophore-producing soil bacterium is added to the system (without added organic ligands), Fe released to solution from both hornblende and goethite differs isotopically from Fe in the bulk mineral: Δ⁵⁶Fe_{solution-starting material} = −0.56 ± 0.19 (hornblende) and −1.44 ± 0.16 (goethite). Increased isotopic fractionation is attributed in this case to the fact that as bacterial respiration depletes the system in oxygen and aqueous Fe is reduced, equilibration between aqueous ferrous and ferric iron creates a pool of isotopically heavy ferric iron that is assimilated by bacterial cells. Adsorption of isotopically heavy ferrous iron (Fe(II) enriched in the heavier isotope) or precipitation of isotopically heavy Fe minerals may also contribute to observed fractionations.To test whether these Fe isotope signatures are recorded in natural systems, we also investigated extractions of samples of soils from which the bacteria were isolated. These extractions show variability in the isotopic signatures of exchangeable Fe and Fe oxyhydroxide fractions from one soil sample to another, but exchangeable Fe is observed to be lighter than Fe in soil Fe oxyhydroxides and hornblende. This observation is consistent with isotopically light Fe-organic complexes in soil pore water derived from the Fe-silicate starting materials in the presence of growing microorganisms, as documented in experiments reported here. The contributions from phenomena including organic ligand-promoted nonstoichiometric dissolution of Fe silicates, uptake of ferric iron by organisms, adsorption of isotopically heavy ferrous iron, and precipitation of iron minerals should create complex isotopic signatures in soils. Better understanding of these processes and the timescales over which they contribute to fractionation is needed.