Initial uncertainties in ‘nuclear winter’: A proposed test based on the dresden firestorm

Conclusions An extinction optical depth of 20 is necessary for total darkness (NAS, 1985), although a considerably lower value than that can produce near-total darkness because scattered light does not generate shadows and contrast. It can be seen that the Dresden firestorm smoke cloud, calculated under the conditions usually assumed in nuclear winter calculations, should have resulted in total darkness over a vast area.Using the 500 mb chart, it can be retrodicted that the smoke plume, as part of the counterclockwise circulation about the low over southern Sweden, was over central Poland as dawn broke on the 14th. Indeed, at 9 AM (Table I), smoke from what had been Dresden should have been passing over what had been Warsaw. Depending upon the specific size of the plume at the time, anywhere from a few hundred thousand to over ten million people should have been plunged into darkness.It appears unlikely that such extensive darkening could have gone unreported (especially in the light of the heightened awareness resulting from wartime conditions, and the proximity of the Soviet/German front). This has direct implications for the aforementioned initial uncertainties in nuclear winter. Possible explanations include: (a) Very low smoke emission factors - perhaps even lower than 0.001 (Broyles, 1985); (b) Substantial removal of smoke in the black rain that followed the firestorm (Irving, 1963, p. 175). Values for prompt smoke removal reaching 90% are not out of the realm of possibility (Schneider et al., 1986; Penner, 1986).The present author is of the opinion that more effort should be expended by students of the nuclear winter phenomenon to learn from WWII mass urban fires. Many eyewitnesses to these events must still be living, and there must be at least some scientifically-useable material in archives. For example, there is a 122-m, 10-min motion film of the Dresden firestorm (Irving, 1963, p. 159). It is in the film archives of the Imperial War Museum. Perhaps some new details of firestorm genesis, spread, etc. could be learned from it. There must be other log books, such as the one of Kraus (1986), which could well yield scientificallyvaluable information.     

High-speed photography of the bubble generated by an airgun1

High-speed photography has been used visually to study the shape, surface, turbulence and behaviour of an underwater oscillating bubble generated by an airgun. The source was a BOLT airgun with a chamber volume of 1.6cu.in., placed in a 0.85m³ tank at 0.5m depth. Near-field signatures were also recorded in order to compare the instant photographs of the oscillating bubble with the pressure field recorded about 25 cm from the gun. Estimations of the bubble-wall velocity and bubble radius estimated from high-speed film sequences are also presented, and are compared with modelled results. The deviation between the modelled and measured bubble radii was at most 9%. In order to check the capacity for transmission of light through the bubble, a concentrated laser beam was used as illumination. We found that the air bubble is a strong scattering medium of laser light, hence the bubble is opaque.     

Magnetic field measurements in India during the last two centuries

Summary The direction of the geomagnetic field has changed substantially less in India than in Europe since the end of the 18th century.Whereas the European geomagnetic time series indicate a tendency of secular variation from which a remarkable westward drift of the non-axial field can be deduced, in India the field direction seems to have remained more or less fixed over the last two centuries. The drift of the non-axial field seems to be very small, or even eastward.     

Detection and quantification of local anthropogenic and regional climatic transient signals in temperature logs from Czechia and Slovenia

The paper reports on detection and quantification of the impact of local anthropogenic structures and regional climatic changes on subsurface temperature field. The analyzed temperature records were obtained by temperature monitoring in a borehole in Prague-Spo?ilov (Czechia) and by repeated logging of a borehole in ?empeter (Slovenia). The observed data were compared with temperatures yielded by mathematical 3D time-variable geothermal models of the boreholes’ sites with the aim to decompose the observed transient component of the subsurface temperature into the part affected by construction of new buildings and other anthropogenic structures in surroundings of the boreholes and into the part affected by the ground surface temperature warming due to the surface air temperature rise. A direct human impact on the subsurface temperature warming was proved and contributions of individual anthropogenic structures to this change were evaluated. In the case of Spo?ilov, where the mean annual warming rate reached 0.034°C per year at the depth of 38.3?m during the period 1993–2008, it turned out that about half of the observed warming can be attributed to the air (ground) surface temperature change and half to the human activity on the surface in the immediate vicinity of the borehole. The situation is similar in ?empeter, where the effect of the recently built surface anthropogenic structures is detectable down to the depth of 80?m and the share of the anthropogenic signal on the non-stationary component of the observed subsurface temperature amounts to 30% at the depth of 50?m.     

Biases in the diurnal temperature range in Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate models and their possible causes

The study examines how regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the diurnal temperature range (DTR) in their control simulations over Central Europe. We evaluate 30-year runs driven by perfect boundary conditions (the ERA40 reanalysis, 1961–1990) and a global climate model (ECHAM5) of an ensemble of RCMs with 25-km resolution from the ENSEMBLES project. The RCMs’ performance is compared against the dataset gridded from a high-density stations network. We find that all RCMs underestimate DTR in all seasons, notwithstanding whether driven by ERA40 or ECHAM5. Underestimation is largest in summer and smallest in winter in most RCMs. The relationship of the models’ errors to indices of atmospheric circulation and cloud cover is discussed to reveal possible causes of the biases. In all seasons and all simulations driven by ERA40 and ECHAM5, underestimation of DTR is larger under anticyclonic circulation and becomes smaller or negligible for cyclonic circulation. In summer and transition seasons, underestimation tends to be largest for the southeast to south flow associated with warm advection, while in winter it does not depend on flow direction. We show that the biases in DTR, which seem common to all examined RCMs, are also related to cloud cover simulation. However, there is no general tendency to overestimate total cloud amount under anticyclonic conditions in the RCMs, which suggests the large negative bias in DTR for anticyclonic circulation cannot be explained by a bias in cloudiness. Errors in simulating heat and moisture fluxes between land surface and atmosphere probably contribute to the biases in DTR as well.     

Sensitivity of sea ice to wind-stress and radiative forcing since 1500: a model study of the Little Ice Age and beyond

Three different reconstructed wind-stress fields which take into account variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, one general circulation model wind-stress field, and three radiative forcings (volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse gas changes) are used with the UVic Earth System Climate Model to simulate the surface air temperature, the sea-ice cover, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 1500, a period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA). The simulated Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature, used for model validation, agrees well with several temperature reconstructions. The simulated sea-ice cover in each hemisphere responds quite differently to the forcings. In the Northern Hemisphere, the simulated sea-ice area and volume during the LIA are larger than the present-day area and volume. The wind-driven changes in sea-ice area are about twice as large as those due to thermodynamic (i.e., radiative) forcing. For the sea-ice volume, changes due to wind forcing and thermodynamics are of similar magnitude. Before 1850, the simulations suggest that volcanic activity was mainly responsible for the thermodynamically produced area and volume changes, while after 1900 the slow greenhouse gas increase was the main driver of the sea-ice changes. Changes in insolation have a small effect on the sea ice throughout the integration period. The export of the thicker sea ice during the LIA has no significant effect on the maximum strength of the AMOC. A more important process in altering the maximum strength of the AMOC and the sea-ice thickness is the wind-driven northward ocean heat transport. In the Southern Hemisphere, there are no visible long-term trends in the simulated sea-ice area or volume since 1500. The wind-driven changes are roughly four times larger than those due to radiative forcing. Prior to 1800, all the radiative forcings could have contributed to the thermodynamically driven changes in area and volume. In the 1800s the volcanic forcing was dominant, and during the first part of the 1900s both the insolation changes and the greenhouse gas forcing are responsible for thermodynamically produced changes. Finally, in the latter part of the 1900s the greenhouse gas forcing is the dominant factor in determining the sea-ice changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections

Using observations covering the last 128 years we show that apparent changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can be explained by chance and stem from sampling variability. This result is backed by experiments in which an atmosphere model is driven by 123 years of observed sea surface temperature. The possibility of ENSO teleconnection changes in a warming climate is further investigated using coupled GCMs driven by past and projected future greenhouse gas concentrations. These runs do not exclude physical changes in the teleconnection strength but do not agree on their magnitude and location. If existing at all, changes in the strength of ENSO teleconnection, other than obtained by chance, are small and will only be detectable on centennial time scales.     

Newly identified historical tornadoes in the Czech Republic from 16th to the 20th centuries

Tornadoes have occurred in the territory of the Czech Republic throughout history. Although their frequency and intensity are not as high as in the USA, they can cause severe damage as well. That is why a systematic effort to document individual occurrences of this dangerous meteorological phenomenon as far as possible back into the past began in the 1990s. The aim of this investigation is to extend the first European catalogue of tornadoes originally published by Wegener [Wegener A., 1917. Wind-und Wasserhosen in Europe], by the addition of these cases from the Czech Republic.This paper adds further to Setvák, Šálek and Munzar [Setvák M., Šálek M., Munzar J., 2003. Tornadoes within the Czech Republic—from medieval chronicles to the internet society. Atmos. Res. 67–68, 589–605], who reported the earliest documented tornado in the land of the Czech Republic which occurred in AD 1119 in Prague. In so doing, it presents recently discovered tornado cases from the 16th to the early 20th centuries, found in a variety of historical sources since the last ECSS conference held in Prague in 2002. In particular we will focus on the case from Jablonec nad Nisou (northern Bohemia) in 1925, which was probably the first case in the Czech Republic with accompanying photographic documentation of damage caused by a tornado.     

The IPCC on a heterogeneous Medieval Warm Period

In their 2007 report, IPCC working group 1 refers to an increased heterogeneity of climate during medieval times about 1000 years ago. This conclusion would be of relevance, as it implies a contrast in the spatial signature and forcing of current warmth to that during the Medieval Warm Period. Our analysis of the data displayed in the IPCC report, however, shows no indication of an increased spread between long-term proxy records. We emphasize the relevance of sample replication issues, and argue that an estimation of long-term spatial homogeneity changes is premature based on the smattering of data currently available.