Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961–1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071–2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions.     

Estimates of Roughness Parameters for Arrays of Obstacles

Some methods are evaluated and extended to estimate roughness length and zero plane displacement height for atmospheric flow over arrays of obstacles, typically buildings. It appears that the method proposed by Bottema, with an extension to account for low density obstacle arrays, performs best. Procedures are proposed to represent irregular obstacle arrangements by a representative regular array to which Bottema's method can be applied. It is shown that this can be done without loss of accuracy, in general, roughness length can be predicted within a factor of two in more than 74% of the cases (95% reliability estimate). The methods proposed by Lettau and Raupach have been included in the evaluation. Lettau's model, which only requires input on the frontal area density, predicts roughness length unbiassed for frontal area densities up to 0.3, but predictions will be within a factor of two in more than 59% of the cases only (95% reliability estimate).     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

Expanding global mapping of the foliage clumping index with multi-angular POLDER three measurements: Evaluation and topographic compensation

The clumping index measures the spatial aggregation (clumped, random and regular) of foliage elements. The global mapping of the clumping index with a limited eight-month multi-angular POLDER 1 dataset is expanded by integrating new, complete year-round observations from POLDER 3. We show that terrain-induced shadows can enhance bi-directional reflectance distribution function variation and negatively bias the clumping index (i.e. indicating more vegetation clumping) in rugged terrain. Using a global high-resolution digital elevation model, a topographic compensation function is devised to correct for this terrain effect. The clumping index reductions can reach up to 30% from the topographically non-compensated values, depending on terrain complexity and land cover type. The new global clumping index map is compared with an assembled set of field measurements from 32 different sites, covering four continents and diverse biomes.     

Extremely slow slope movements influencing the stability of Spis Castle,UNESCO site

Spis Castle, a monument included in the UNESCO World Heritage Site list (Eastern Slovakia) is built on a travertine mound overlying soft Paleogene rocks. Lateral spreading resulting from the subsidence of strong upper travertine into soft claystone strata has fractured and separated the castle rock into several cliffs. The differential movement of individual cliff faces is the primary influence on the stability of the monument. In order to monitor and quantify the movement, two techniques were adopted: a mechanical-optical TM-71 crack gauge and a demec gauge (demountable mechanical—SOMET type crack gauge). This paper presents the results and interpretation of medium and short-term monitoring at the site.     

Comparison between cell-centered and nodal-based discretization schemes for linear elasticity

In this paper, we study newly developed methods for linear elasticity on polyhedral meshes. Our emphasis is on applications of the methods to geological models. Models of subsurface, and in particular sedimentary rocks, naturally lead to general polyhedral meshes. Numerical methods which can directly handle such representation are highly desirable. Many of the numerical challenges in simulation of subsurface applications come from the lack of robustness and accuracy of numerical methods in the case of highly distorted grids. In this paper, we investigate and compare the Multi-Point Stress Approximation (MPSA) and the Virtual Element Method (VEM) with regard to grid features that are frequently seen in geological models and likely to lead to a lack of accuracy of the methods. In particular, we look at how the methods perform near the incompressible limit. This work shows that both methods are promising for flexible modeling of subsurface mechanics.     

Timings of early crustal activity in southern highlands of Mars:Periods of crustal stretching and shortening

Extensional and compressional structures are globally abundant on Mars. Distribution of these structures and their ages constrain the crustal stress state and tectonic evolution of the planet. Here in this paper, we report on our investigation over the distribution of the tectonic structures and timings of the associated stress fields from the Noachis-Sabaea region. Thereafter, we hypothesize possible origins in relation to the internal/external processes through detailed morphostructural mapping. In doing so, we have extracted the absolute model ages of these linear tectonic structures using crater size-frequency distribution measurements, buffered crater counting in particular. The estimated ages indicate that the tectonic structures are younger than the mega impacts events(especially Hellas) and instead they reveal two dominant phases of interior dynamics prevailing on the southern highlands, firstly the extensional phase terminating around3.8 Ga forming grabens and then compressional phase around 3.5-3.6 Ga producing wrinkle ridges and lobate scarps. These derived absolute model ages of the grabens exhibit the age ca. 100 Ma younger than the previously documented end of the global extensional phase. The following compressional activity corresponds to the peak of global contraction period in Early Hesperian. Therefore, we conclude that the planet wide heat loss mechanism, involving crustal stretching coupled with gravitationally driven relaxation(i.e.,lithospheric mobility) resulted in the extensional structures around Late Noachian(around 3.8 Ga). Lately cooling related global contraction generated compressional stress ensuing shortening of the upper crust of the southern highlands at the Early Hesperian period(around 3.5-3.6 Ga).