A portable retractable ADCP boom-mount for small boats

This paper describes the design, testing, and application of a portable and retractable shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) boom-mount. The boom is specifically adapted for small fiberglass boats working with a minimal crew. The design permits the rapid collection of ADCP data on discontinuous transects which would be difficult or impossible using a large displacement hull vessel or with a towed vehicle. This capability is particularly useful in shallow wind-driven estuaries and in tidal channels where flow time scales are often on the order of several hours. Tests of the boom show that high quality ADCP data (as measured by percent good) can be obtained at boat speeds up to 4.0 m s⁻¹ and that data quality depends on transducer depth. The utility of the retractable design is demonstrated with an 8 m boat on two nearly synoptic ADCP surveys of a shallow estuary. With minor modifications to accommodate different vessel geometries, the design could be readily adapted for use on similar vessels.     

Practical Postcalibration Uncertainty Analysis: Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The values of parameters in a groundwater flow model govern the precision of predictions of future system behavior. Predictive precision, thus, typically depends on an ability to infer values of system properties from historical measurements through calibration. When such data are scarce, or when their information content with respect to parameters that are most relevant to predictions of interest is weak, predictive uncertainty may be high, even if the model is "calibrated." Recent advances help recognize this condition, quantitatively evaluate predictive uncertainty, and suggest a path toward improved predictive accuracy by identifying sources of predictive uncertainty and by determining what observations will most effectively reduce this uncertainty. We demonstrate linear and nonlinear predictive error/uncertainty analyses as applied to a groundwater flow model of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the United States' proposed site for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Linear and nonlinear uncertainty analyses are readily implemented as an adjunct to model calibration with medium to high parameterization density. Linear analysis yields contributions made by each parameter to a prediction's uncertainty and the worth of different observations, both existing and yet-to-be-gathered, toward reducing this uncertainty. Nonlinear analysis provides more accurate characterization of the uncertainty of model predictions while yielding their (approximate) probability distribution functions. This article applies the above methods to a prediction of specific discharge and confirms the uncertainty bounds on specific discharge supplied in the Yucca Mountain Project License Application.     

Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.     

Catastrophic,rainfall-induced debris flows in Andean villages of Tarapacá, Atacama Desert,northern Chile

In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfall event affected the deeply incised valleys of the Precordillera of the Tarapacá Region, northern Chile. This extreme event in a very arid region triggered a number of debris and mud flows that caused severe damage and destruction in several small villages along the Camiña and Tarapacá valleys. The highly vulnerable location of the villages on top of alluvial fans due to socioeconomic and cultural reasons is a key factor to explain the level of destruction in most villages. In this paper, this unusual, remarkable landslide event is described, and the hazard faced by these settlements for future rainfall episodes and possible mitigation measures are discussed.     

U–Pb and Hf isotopic analysis of zircon in lower crustal xenoliths from the Navajo volcanic field: 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and metamorphism beneath the Colorado Plateau

Zircon from lower crustal xenoliths erupted in the Navajo volcanic field was analyzed for U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopic compositions to characterize the lower crust beneath the Colorado Plateau and to determine whether it was affected by ∼1.4 Ga granitic magmatism and metamorphism that profoundly affected the exposed middle crust of southwestern Laurentia. Igneous zircon in felsic xenoliths crystallized at 1.73 and 1.65 Ga, and igneous zircon in mafic xenoliths crystallized at 1.43 Ga. Most igneous zircon has unradiogenic initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=+4.1–+7.8) and 1.7–1.6 Ga depleted mantle model ages, consistent with 1.7–1.6 Ga felsic protoliths being derived from “juvenile” Proterozoic crust and 1.4 Ga mafic protoliths having interacted with older crust. Metamorphic zircon grew in four pulses between 1.42 and 1.36 Ga, at least one of which was at granulite facies. Significant variability within and between xenoliths in metamorphic zircon initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=−0.7 to +13.6) indicates growth from different aged sources with diverse time-integrated Lu/Hf ratios. These results show a strong link between 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and granulite facies metamorphism in the lower crust and granitic magmatism and metamorphism in the exposed middle crust.     

A numerical scheme for morphological bed level calculations

The typical equation for bed level change in sediment transport in river, estuary and near shore systems is based on conservation of sediment mass. It is generally a nonlinear conservation equation for bed level. The physics here are similar to shallow water wave equations and gas dynamics equation which will develop shock waves in many circumstances. Many state-of-art morphological models use classical lower order Lax–Wendroff or modified Lax–Wendroff schemes for morphology which are not very stable for long time sediment transport processes simulation. Filtering or artificial diffusion are often added to achieve stability. In this paper, several shock capturing schemes are discussed for simulating bed level change with different accuracy and stability behaviors. The conclusion is in favor of a fifth order Euler-WENO scheme which is introduced to sediment transport simulations here over other schemes. The Euler-WENO scheme is shown to have significant advantages over schemes with artificial viscosity and filtering processes, hence is highly recommended especially for phase-resolving sediment transport models.     

Atmospheric Precursors of and Response to Anomalous Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP5 Models

This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents–Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.     

Groundwater age,mixing and flow rates in the vicinity of large open pit mines,Pilbara region,northwestern Australia

Determining groundwater ages from environmental tracer concentrations measured on samples obtained from open bores or long-screened intervals is fraught with difficulty because the sampled water represents a variety of ages. A multi-tracer technique (Cl, ¹⁴C, ³H, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and SF₆) was used to decipher the groundwater ages sampled from long-screened production bores in a regional aquifer around an open pit mine in the Pilbara region of northwest Australia. The changes in tracer concentrations due to continuous dewatering over 7 years (2008–2014) were examined, and the tracer methods were compared. Tracer concentrations suggest that groundwater samples are a mixture of young and old water; the former is inferred to represent localised recharge from an adjacent creek, and the latter to be diffuse recharge. An increase in ¹⁴C activity with time in wells closest to the creek suggests that dewatering of the open pit to achieve dry mining conditions has resulted in change in flow direction, so that localised recharge from the creek now forms a larger proportion of the pumped groundwater. The recharge rate prior to development, calculated from a steady-state Cl mass balance, is 6 mm/y, and is consistent with calculations based on the ¹⁴C activity. Changes in CFC-12 concentrations with time may be related to the change in water-table position relative to the depth of the well screen.     

Hydrodynamical non-radiative accretion flows in two dimensions

Two-dimensional (axially symmetric) numerical hydrodynamical calculations of accretion flows that cannot cool through emission of radiation are presented. The calculations begin from an equilibrium configuration consisting of a thick torus with constant specific angular momentum. Accretion is induced by the addition of a small anomalous azimuthal shear stress which is characterized by a function ν . We study the flows generated as the amplitude and form of ν are varied. A spherical polar grid which spans more than two orders of magnitude in radius is used to resolve the flow over a wide range of spatial scales. We find that convection in the inner regions produces significant outward mass motions that carry away both the energy liberated by and a large fraction of the mass participating in the accretion flow. Although the instantaneous structure of the flow is complex and dominated by convective eddies, long-time averages of the dynamical variables show remarkable correspondence to certain steady-state solutions. The two-dimensional structure of the time-averaged flow is marginally stable to the Høiland criterion, indicating that convection is efficient. Near the equatorial plane, the radial profiles of the time-averaged variables are power laws with an index that depends on the radial scaling of the shear stress. A stress in which ν ∝ r ^1/2 recovers the widely studied self-similar solution corresponding to an ' α -disc'. We find that, regardless of the adiabatic index of the gas, or the form or magnitude of the shear stress, the mass inflow rate is a strongly increasing function of radius, and is everywhere nearly exactly balanced by mass outflow. The net mass accretion rate through the disc is only a fraction of the rate at which mass is supplied to the inflow at large radii, and is given by the local, viscous accretion rate associated with the flow properties near the central object.     

The Optimal Design of TMD for Offshore Structures

This paper presents the optimal design procedure of Tuned Mass Damper(TMD)for re-ducing vibration of an actual steel jacket offshore platform excited by random wave loading.In this study,a frequency domain is taken.The force on the structure is determined by use of the linearized Morisonequation for an input Power Spectral Density(PSD)of wave elevation.The sensitivity of optimum valuesof TMD to characteristic parameters of random wave spectrum is analyzed.An optimized TMD designfor the modeled platform is given based on design conditions and the findings of the study.