MELTWATER FLUXES AT AN ARCTIC FOREST-TUNDRA SITE

Models of surface energy balance and snow metamorphism are utilized to predict the energy and meltwater fluxes at an Arctic site in the forest–tundra transition zone of north-western Canada. The surface energy balance during the melt period is modelled using an hourly bulk aerodynamic approach. Once a snowcover becomes patchy, advection from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas results in a large spatial variation in basin snowmelt. In order to illustrate the importance of small-scale, horizontal advection, a simple parameterization scheme using sensible heat fluxes from snow free areas was tested. This scheme estimates the maximum horizontal advection of sensible heat from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas. Calculated melt was routed through the measured snowcover in each landscape type using a variable flow path, meltwater percolation model. This allowed the determination of the spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of meltwater release for runoff. Model results indicate that the initial release of meltwater first occurred on the shallow upland tundra sites, but meltwater release did not occur until nearly two weeks later on the deep drift snowcovers. During these early periods of melt, not all meltwater is available for runoff. Instead, there is a period when some snowpacks are only partially contributing to runoff, and the spatial variation of runoff contribution corresponds to landscape type. Comparisons of melt with and without advection suggests that advection is an important process controlling the timing of basin snowmelt.     

The formation of small cones in Isidis Planitia,Mars through mobilization of pyroclastic surge deposits

We investigate the distinctive distribution and pattern of subkilometer-sized cones in Isidis Planitia, and their relationship to the material that fills the basin. We observe that: (1) the cones show uniform size, spacing, and morphology across the entire basin; (2) they have large central depressions (relative to cone basal diameters) that are generally filled in and commonly show layering; (3) cone chains form highly organized spatial patterns; cones are also found in isolation and in dense fields; (4) many adjacent chains are parallel, and evenly spaced, creating a pattern that mimics lava flows that have experienced compressional folding; (5) no flows are associated with the cones, even where summit crater rims are breached; (6) the cones are at least temporally related to basin fill; (7) the basin fill material is largely fine-grained, but with locally indurated layers at shallow depth; blocks ejected by small craters from these locally indurated layers are commonly dark in color; and (8) relationships between cones along a chain show no systematic temporal formation sequence along the chain. We conclude that the basin was likely inundated by one or more hot, partially welded pyroclastic flows; devolatilization of these flows remobilized volcaniclastic material to form the cones without associated lava flows. The volume of gas required to account for the observed number of cones is low and does not require the presence of ground water or ice.     

Möglichkeiten der photometrischen Untersuchung von Kugelhaufen mittels photographischer Äquidensiten

A method of estimating the surface-brightness of globular cluster with equidensity curves is described. (Russian abstract)     

Kampfer ein Rauschgift für Fische

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Solubility of alumina in orthopyroxene plus spinel as a geobarometer in complex systems. Applications to spinel-bearing alpine-type peridotites

The addition of Fe and Cr to the simple system MgO-SiO₂-Al₂O₃ markedly affects the activities of phases involved in the equilibrium

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.