Antifouling biocides in discarded marine paint particles

Antifouling paint fragments collected from marinas and leisure boat maintenance facilities and in the vicinity of abandoned boats have been chemically characterised. High concentrations of Cu (23-380 mg g⁻¹) and Zn (14-160 mg g⁻¹) in the samples (n = 14) are consistent with the use of these metals in the principal biocidal and non-biocidal pigments in contemporary antifouling formulations. Up to about 2% and 7% of the respective metals were solvent-extractable, suggesting that organo-forms of Cu and Zn (e.g. pyrithiones) were also present. Of the organic biocides, dichlofluanid was present in most samples and at concentrations up to about 20 mg g⁻¹. Chlorothalonil and Irgarol 1051® were only detected in one and four cases, respectively, and Sea Nine 211® was not detected in any sample. Results are discussed in terms of UK legislation regarding biocide usage and the likely effects and fate of discarded paint particles in coastal environments where boats are repaired or moored.     

Earthquake Recurrence in Simulated Fault Systems

We employ a computationally efficient fault system earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore effects of earthquake nucleation and fault system geometry on earthquake occurrence. The simulations incorporate rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems, and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. Faults are represented as continuous planar surfaces, surfaces with a random fractal roughness, and discontinuous fractally segmented faults. Simulated earthquake catalogs have up to 10⁶ earthquakes that span a magnitude range from ～M4.5 to M8. The seismicity has strong temporal and spatial clustering in the form of foreshocks and aftershocks and occasional large-earthquake pairs. Fault system geometry plays the primary role in establishing the characteristics of stress evolution that control earthquake recurrence statistics. Empirical density distributions of earthquake recurrence times at a specific point on a fault depend strongly on magnitude and take a variety of complex forms that change with position within the fault system. Because fault system geometry is an observable that greatly impacts recurrence statistics, we propose using fault system earthquake simulators to define the empirical probability density distributions for use in regional assessments of earthquake probabilities.     

Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress.     

A comparison of field- and satellite-derived thermal flux at Piton de la Fournaise: implications for the calculation of lava discharge rate

We present thermal measurements made by high spatial resolution ground-based (a hand-held thermal camera) and low spatial resolution space-based (MODIS) instruments for a lava flow field active during the last phase of the May–July 2003 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion). Multiple oblique ground-based thermal images were merged to provide full coverage of the flow-field. These were then corrected for path length attenuation and orthorectified, allowing the at-surface radiance emitted by the flow-field to be estimated. Comparison with the radiance recorded by the MODIS sensors during the eruption reveals that, for clear-sky conditions and moderate-to-low viewing angles (satellite zenith <40°), the satellite measurements represent ∼90% of the at-surface radiance, and thus represent valuable data for quantifying volcanic thermal anomalies. Nevertheless, extreme viewing geometries and the presence of clouds strongly affect the radiance reaching the sensor and affected data from 94% of the overpasses. Ground-based thermal data were used to investigate an empirical relationship between the radiant heat flux and lava discharge rate during the emplacement of pahoehoe flows. While the average radiation temperature for flow surface that were 6–24 h old ranged between 500 K and 625 K, the ratio between radiative heat flux and Time-Averaged lava Discharge Rate (TADR) ranged between 1.5 × 10⁸ J m⁻³ and 3.5 × 10⁸ J m⁻³. This relationship was used to estimate TADR values from optimal MODIS data and produced results in line with those obtained from GPS surveys (Coppola et al. 2005). Our results underscore the importance of ground-based thermal analysis for the interpretation of satellite measurements, particularly in terms of calculating discharge rate trends.     

Late Quaternary activity of the Pajarito fault, Rio Grande rift of northern New Mexico, USA

The Pajarito fault forms the western margin of the Rio Grande rift in north-central New Mexico, and lies adjacent to Los Alamos National Laboratory, a major Federal research facility. Vertical displacement on this normal fault over the past 1.2 Ma has created a 50- to 120-m-high fault scarp on Bandelier Tuff (1.2 Ma), yielding a long-term average slip rate of ca. 0.1 mm/yr. In support of a Laboratory-wide seismic hazards assessment, we excavated 14 trenches in the Pajarito fault zone to determine the age of the most recent displacement event, the recurrence interval between events, the displacement per event, and the variability in slip rate and recurrence through time. The large number of trenches was required by the large height of the fault scarp and the complexity of the fault zone. Only about half the trenches contained significant thicknesses of Holocene deposits, but in those trenches there was clear evidence for an early-to-mid-Holocene displacement event. The previous event was at least 20–40 ka, and the average recurrence interval over the past ca. 300 ka was about 20–40 kyr. We infer that much of the structural relief across this fault developed soon after eruption of the Bandelier Tuff between 1.0 and 1.2 Ma, and that slip rate slowed considerably after that time.     

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.     

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.     

Comparison of the Salinity Structure of the Chesapeake Bay,the Delaware Bay and Long Island Sound Using a Linearly Tapered Advection-Dispersion Model

Long records of monthly salinity observations along the axis of Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound are used to test a simple advection–dispersion model of the salt distribution in linearly tapered estuaries developed in a previous paper. We subdivide each estuary into three to five segments, each with linear taper allowing a distributed input of fresh water, and evaluate the dispersion in each segment. While Delaware Bay has weak dispersion and a classical sigmoidal salinity structure, Long Island Sound and Chesapeake Bay are more dispersive and have relatively small gradients in the central stretches. Long Island Sound is distinguished by having a net volume and salt flux out of its low-salinity end resulting in a smaller range of salinity and increasing axial gradients at its head rather than the usual asymptotic approach to zero salinity. Estimates of residence times based on model transport coefficients show that Long Island Sound has the most rapid response to fresh-water flux variations. It also has the largest amplitude cycle in river discharge fluctuation. In combination, these cause the large seasonal variation in the salinity structure relative to interannual variability in Long Island Sound as compared with Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay.