Statistical and hydrodynamic models for the operational forecasting of floods in the Venice Lagoon

The risk of flooding in Venice has increased strongly since the beginning of the century. To reduce the damage to the city and the negative impact on the activities in the lagoon, an accurate flood warning system is necessary. This system will also be fundamental during the construction and for the efficient operation of storm surge barriers covering the three existing inlets of the lagoon. In this context new operational statistical and hydrodynamic models have been developed. Forecast winds and pressure fields which constitute basic information for the warning system have been obtained through an ad hoc Limited Area Meteorological model. It has been demonstrated that, provided that this information is available on an operational basis, the implementation of a flood warning system for Venice using the models developed is feasible. The statistical model, which is based on a multiple regression technique, extends the forecasting range of the model presently in operation at the Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree del Comune di Venezia, from 3 hrs up to 24 hrs, and presents good accuracy (estimated mean absolute errors smaller than 10 cm) for short-term forecasts up to 9 hrs. The hydrodynamic model includes all the physical processes important for the simulation of water levels and currents in coastal and marine environments. The model set-up adopted covers the entire Adriatic Sea, with a grid spacing of 6 km. Special attention has been given to the positioning of the open boundary and to the correct reproduction of the main free oscillation of the Adriatic, which is responsible for the possible recurrence of flooding after the main storm has passed. The inclusion of this model in a flood warning system is mainly intended for long-term forecasts (> 24 hrs), and can typically be used to forecast up to 3–4 days ahead, with an estimated mean absolute error smaller than 20 cm.     

Biogeochemistry of sulfur and iron in Thioploca-colonized surface sediments in the upwelling area off central chile

The biogeochemistry of sedimentary sulfur was investigated on the continental shelf off central Chile at water depths between 24 and 88 m under partial influence of an oxygen minimum zone. Dissolved and solid iron and sulfur species, including the sulfur intermediates sulfite, thiosulfate, and elemental sulfur, were analyzed at high resolution in the top 20 cm. All stations were characterized by high rates of sulfate reduction, but only the sediments within the Bay of Concepción contained dissolved sulfide. Due to advection and/or in-situ reoxidation of sulfide, dissolved sulfate was close to bottom water values. Whereas the concentrations of sulfite and thiosulfate were mostly in the submicromolar range, elemental sulfur was by far the dominant sulfur intermediate. Although the large nitrate- and sulfur-storing bacteria Thioploca were abundant, the major part of S⁰ was located extracellularly. The distribution of sulfur species and dissolved iron suggests the reaction of sulfide with FeOOH as an important pathway for sulfide oxidation and sulfur intermediate formation. This is in agreement with the sulfur isotope composition of co-existing elemental sulfur and iron monosulfides. In the Bay of Concepción, sulfur isotope data suggest that pyrite formation proceeds via the reaction of FeS with polysulfides or H₂S. At the shelf stations, on the other hand, pyrite was significantly depleted in ³⁴S relative to its potential precursors FeS and S⁰. Isotope mass balance considerations suggest further that pyritization at depth includes light sulfide, potentially originating from bacterial sulfur disproportionation. The δ³⁴S-values of pyrite down to −38‰ vs. V-CDT are among the lightest found in organic-rich marine sediments. Seasonal variations in the sulfur isotope composition of dissolved sulfate indicated a dynamic non-steady-state sulfur cycle in the surface sediments. The ¹⁸O content of porewater sulfate increased with depth at all sites compared to the bottom water composition due to intracellular isotope exchange reactions during microbial sulfur transformations.     

Astronomical-topographic levelling using high-precision astrogeodetic vertical deflections and digital terrain model data

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, a technological change took place in geodetic astronomy by the development of Digital Zenith Camera Systems (DZCS). Such instruments provide vertical deflection data at an angular accuracy level of 0.̋1 and better. Recently, DZCS have been employed for the collection of dense sets of astrogeodetic vertical deflection data in several test areas in Germany with high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM) data (10–50 m resolution) available. These considerable advancements motivate a new analysis of the method of astronomical-topographic levelling, which uses DTM data for the interpolation between the astrogeodetic stations. We present and analyse a least-squares collocation technique that uses DTM data for the accurate interpolation of vertical deflection data. The combination of both data sets allows a precise determination of the gravity field along profiles, even in regions with a rugged topography. The accuracy of the method is studied with particular attention on the density of astrogeodetic stations. The error propagation rule of astronomical levelling is empirically derived. It accounts for the signal omission that increases with the station spacing. In a test area located in the German Alps, the method was successfully applied to the determination of a quasigeoid profile of 23 km length. For a station spacing from a few 100 m to about 2 km, the accuracy of the quasigeoid was found to be about 1–2 mm, which corresponds to a relative accuracy of about 0.05−0.1 ppm. Application examples are given, such as the local and regional validation of gravity field models computed from gravimetric data and the economic gravity field determination in geodetically less covered regions.     

Modeling the hydro-mechanical responses of strip and circular punch loadings on water-saturated collapsible geomaterials

A stabilized enhanced strain finite element procedure for poromechanics is fully integrated with an elasto-plastic cap model to simulate the hydro-mechanical interactions of fluid-infiltrating porous rocks with associative and non-associative plastic flow. We present a quantitative analysis on how macroscopic plastic volumetric response caused by pore collapse and grain rearrangement affects the seepage of pore fluid, and vice versa. Results of finite element simulations imply that the dissipation of excess pore pressure may significantly affect the stress path and thus alter the volumetric plastic responses.     

Palaeoglaciology of Bayan Har Shan,NE Tibetan Plateau: exposure ages reveal a missing LGM expansion

The Bayan Har Shan, a prominent upland area in the northeastern sector of the Tibetan Plateau, hosts an extensive glacial geological record. To reconstruct its palaeoglaciology we have determined ¹⁰Be exposure ages based on 67 samples from boulders, surface pebbles, and sediment sections in conjunction with studies of the glacial geology (remote sensing and field studies) and numerical glacier modelling. Exposure ages from moraines and glacial sediments in Bayan Har Shan range from 3 ka to 129 ka, with a large disparity in exposure ages for individual sites and within the recognised four morphostratigraphical groups. The exposure age disparity cannot be explained by differences in inheritance without using unrealistic assumptions but it can be explained by differences in post-depositional shielding which produces exposure ages younger than the deglaciation age. We present a palaeoglaciological time-slice reconstruction in which the most restricted glaciation, with glaciers less than 10 km long, occurred before 40–65 ka. More extensive glaciations occurred before 60–100 ka and 95–165 ka. Maximum glaciation is poorly constrained but probably even older. The Bayan Har Shan exposure age dataset indicates that glaciers on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau have remained surprisingly restricted for at least 40 ka, including the global last glacial maximum (LGM). This case of a missing LGM is further supported by high-resolution glacier modelling experiments.     

Iron isotope fractionation during proton- and ligand-promoted dissolution of primary phyllosilicates

We studied stable iron isotope fractionation during dissolution of a biotite and chlorite enriched mineral fraction from granite by HCl and 5 mM oxalic acid in a pH range of 4-5.9. Batch experiments covered a time period from 2 h to 100 days and were performed at initial potassium concentrations of 0, 0.5, and 5 mM to induce different levels of biotite exfoliation. All experiments were kept anoxic to investigate solely the dissolution step without the influence of oxidation and precipitation of secondary Fe oxyhydroxides. Oxalic acid increased the release of Fe by a factor of ∼15 compared with the HCl experiments. Addition of 0.5 mM K to initial solutions in proton-promoted dissolution decreased the release of Fe by 30-65% depending on the dissolution stage. In ligand-controlled dissolution, K reduced the Fe release only to a minor extent. All solutions of the early dissolution stages were enriched in light Fe isotopes by up to −1.4‰ in δ⁵⁶Fe compared with the isotopic composition of biotite and chlorite mineral separates, which we explained by a kinetic isotope effect. In proton-promoted dissolution, early released fractions of K-enriched experiments were significantly lighter (−0.7‰ to −0.9‰) than in the initially K-free experiments. The evolution of Fe isotope ratios in solution was modeled by a linear combination of kinetic isotope effects during two independent dissolution processes attacking different crystallographic sites. In ligand-controlled dissolution, K did not influence the kinetic isotope effect and the Fe isotope composition in solution in the late dissolution stages remained slightly lighter than the bulk composition of the biotite/chlorite enriched mineral fraction. This study demonstrates that the initial Fe weathering flux should be enriched in light Fe isotopes and that Fe isotope data in combination with dissolution kinetics and stoichiometry provide new insights into dissolution mechanisms.