Application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian great lakes region: Implementation of a lake model

Abstract

This study reports on the implementation of an interactive mixed‐layer/thermodynamic‐ice lake model coupled with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). For this application the CRCM, which uses a grid mesh of 45 km on a polar stereographic projection, 10 vertical levels, and a timestep of 15 min, is nested with the second generation Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated output. A numerical simulation of the climate of eastern North America, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, is then performed in order to evaluate the coupled model. The lakes are represented by a “mixed layer” model to simulate the evolution of the surface water temperature, and a thermodynamic ice model to simulate evolution of the ice cover. The mixed‐layer depth is allowed to vary spatially. Lake‐ice leads are parametrized as a function of ice thickness based on observations. Results from a 5‐year integration show that the coupled CRCM/lake model is capable of simulating the seasonal evolution of surface temperature and ice cover in the Great Lakes. When compared with lake climatology, the simulated mean surface water temperature agrees within 0.12°C on average. The seasonal evolution of the lake‐ice cover is realistic but the model tends to underestimate the monthly mean ice concentration on average. The simulated winter lake‐induced precipitation is also shown, and snow accumulation patterns on downwind shores of the lakes are found to be realistic when compared with observations.     

Funding low-carbon investments in the absence of a carbon tax

Introducing a carbon tax is difficult, partly because it suggests that current generations have to make sacrifices for the benefit of future generations. However, the climate change externality could be corrected without such a sacrifice. It is possible to set a carbon value, and use it to create ‘carbon certificates’ that can be accepted as part of commercial banks’ legal reserves. These certificates can be distributed to low-carbon projects, and be exchanged by investors against concessional loans, reducing capital costs for low-carbon projects. As the issuance of carbon certificates would increase the quantity of money, it will either lead to accelerated inflation or induce the Central Bank to raise interest rates. Low-carbon projects will thus have access to cheaper loans at the expense of either ‘regular’ investors (in case of higher interest rates) or of lenders and depositors (in case of accelerated inflation). Within this scheme, mitigation expenditures are compensated by a reduction in regular investments, so that immediate consumption is maintained. It uses future generation wealth to pay for a hedge against climate change. This framework is not as efficient as a carbon tax but is politically easier to implement and represents an interesting step in the trajectory towards a low-carbon economy.     

Science Requirements on Future Missions and Simulated Mission Scenarios

The science requirements on future gravity satellite missions, following from the previous contributions of this issue, are summarized and visualized in terms of spatial scales, temporal behaviour and accuracy. This summary serves the identification of four classes of future satellite mission of potential interest: high-altitude monitoring, satellite-to-satellite tracking, gradiometry, and formation flights. Within each class several variants are defined. The gravity recovery performance of each of these ideal missions is simulated. Despite some simplifying assumptions, these error simulations result in guidelines as to which type of mission fulfils which requirements best.     

THE FREE-WILSON PARADIGM REDUX:SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FREE-WILSON COEFFICIENTS,INSIGNIFICANCE OF COEFFICIENT ‘UNCERTAINTIES’ AND STATISTICAL SINS

The Free-Wilson paradigm is an established and powerful tool for quantitatively relating activity withchemical structure.Current implementations of the paradigm,however,are flawed both conceptually andin execution.As part of an attempt to more fully realize the promise of the paradigm,it was necessaryto examine these limitations in detail.This report introduces a robust,theory-founded Free-Wilson implementation:stepwise principalcomponents regression analysis(SPCRA).SPCRA is computationally superior to previousimplementations but does not in itself correct their conceptual flaws.The development of SPCRA did,however,facilitate derivation of a simple and chemically significantinterpretation of the Free-Wilson structure-activity model.A number of statistical aspects of this modelcommonly misused in previous applications are discussed at length.These discussions provide criticalbackground for the development of an alternative implementation of the Free-Wilson paradigm.     

The secondary spectral component of solar microwave bursts

Microwave observations in the range 1 to 18 GHz with high spectral resolution (40 frequencies) have shown that many events display a complex microwave spectrum. From a set of 14 events with two or more spectral components, we find that two different classes of complex events can be distinguished. The first group (4 events) is characterized by a different temporal evolution of the spectral components, resulting in a change of the spectral shape. These events probably can be explained by gyrosynchrotron emission from two or more individual sources. The second class (10 events) has a constant spectral shape, so that the two spectral components vary together in intensity. For all ten events in this second class, the ratio of primary to secondary peak frequencies is remarkably similar, exhibiting an average value of 3.4, and both components show a common circular polarization. These properties suggest either a common source for the different spectral components or several sources which are closely coupled. An additional example of this class of burst was observed interferometrically to provide spatial resolution. This event suggests that the primary and secondary components have a similar location, but that the surface area of the secondary component is larger.Swiss National Science Foundation Fellow from the University of Bern.     

Yaxcopoil-1 and the Chicxulub impact

CSDP core Yaxcopoil-1 was drilled to a depth of 1,511 m within the Chicxulub crater. An organic-rich marly limestone near the base of the hole (1,495 to 1,452 m) was deposited in an open marine shelf environment during the latest Cenomanian (uppermost Rotalipora cushmani zone). The overlying sequence of limestones, dolomites and anhydrites (1,495 to 894 m) indicates deposition in various carbonate platform environments (e.g., sabkhas, lagoons). A 100-m-thick suevite breccia (894–794 m) identifies the Chicxulub impact event. Above the suevite breccia is a dolomitic limestone with planktic foraminiferal assemblages indicative of Plummerita hantkeninoides zone CF1, which spans the last 300 ky of the Maastrichtian. An erosional surface 50 cm above the breccia/dolomite contact marks the K/T boundary and a hiatus. Limestones above this contact contain the first Tertiary planktic foraminifera indicative of an upper P. eugubina zone P1a(2) age. Another hiatus 7 cm upsection separates zone P1a(2) and hemipelagic limestones of planktic foraminiferal Zone P1c. Planktic foraminiferal assemblages of Zone Plc to P3b age are present from a depth of 794.04 up to 775 m. The Cretaceous carbonate sequence appears to be autochthonous, with a stratigraphic sequence comparable to late Cretaceous sediments known from outside the Chicxulub crater in northern and southern Yucatan, including the late Cenomanian organic-rich marly limestone. There is no evidence that these sediments represent crater infill due to megablocks sliding into the crater, such as major disruption of sediments, chaotic changes in lithology, overturned or deep dipping megablocks, major mechanical fragmentation, shock or thermal alteration, or ductile deformation. Breccia units that are intercalated in the carbonate platform sequence are intraformational in origin (e.g., dissolution of evaporites) and dykes are rare. Major disturbances of strata by the impact therefore appear to have been confined to within less than 60 km from the proposed impact center. Yaxcopoil-1 may be located outside the collapsed transient crater cavity, either on the upper end of an elevated and tilted horst of the terrace zone, or even outside the annular crater cavity. The Chicxulub site thus records a large impact that predates the K/T boundary impact and mass extinction.     

The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.