Mapping runoff generating areas using AGNPS-VSA model

ABSTRACT

In humid regions, surface runoff is often generated by saturation-excess runoff mechanisms from relatively small variable source areas (VSAs). However, the majority of the current hydrologic models are based on infiltration-excess mechanisms. In this study, the AGricultural Non-Point Source Pollution (AGNPS) model was used to integrate the VSA concept using topographic wetness index (TWI). Both the original and AGNPS-VSA models were evaluated for a small agricultural field in Ontario, Canada. The results indicate that the AGNPS-VSA model performed better than original model. The AGNPS-VSA model predicted that only the saturated portion of the field with higher TWI values produced runoff, whereas the original AGNPS model showed uniform hydrologic response from the entire field. The results of this study are important for accurately mapping the locations of VSAs. This new model could be a powerful tool in identifying critical source areas for applying targeted best management practices to minimize pollutant loads to receiving waters.     

Interpretations of new features of time domain electric-field structures in the auroral acceleration region

Possible theoretical interpretations of the various nonlinear electric-field structures in the auroral acceleration region are provided.     

Lithium in tektites and natural glasses

Lithium concentrations in various tektites and natural glass samples have been determined using RNAA. For most tektites Li abundances range from 40 to 60 ppm, with the exception of bediasites (23 ppm). In other natural glasses of presumed impact origin, the Li values are considerably lower (6–11 ppm). It is suggested that the Li concentrations reflect mostly the original abundance of this element in parent materials. A terrestrial origin for tektites is supported by the Li range overlap between tektites and sedimentary rocks     

Trace fossils from the late cretaceous Lameta Formation,Jabalpur area,Madhya Pradesh: Paleoenvironmental implications

In Jabalpur area about 18 m to 45 m thick Lameta Formation is stratigraphically divisible into five lithounits namely, Green Sandstone, Lower Limestone, Mottled Nodular Beds, Upper Limestone and Upper Sandstone. Having differentiated lithofacies constitution and here grouped as facies associations, these units are intensively burrowed and sparingly fossiliferous. Ichnogenera including Arenicolites, Calycraterion, Fucusopsis, Laevicyclus, Macanopsis, Ophiomorpha, Paleomeandron, Rhizocorallium, Stipsellus, Thalassinoides and Zoophycos are recovered from the Lower Limestone, Mottled Nodular Beds and Upper Limestone associations of the Lameta Formation of Jabalpur area.Among these, Arenicolites, Calycraterion, Laevicyclus, Ophiomorpha, Rhizocorallium, Stipsellus and Thalassinoides belong to mixed Skolithos and Cruziana ichnofacies and indicate sandy backshore to sublittoral condition of deposition. Additionally rhyzocretes, some times chertified, are also present in different parts of the Lameta Formation. Ichnofacies assemblage supported by sedimentological information suggests that the Lameta Formation of Jabalpur area was deposited in coastal marine settings where sediments were subaerially exposed intermittently.     

Effect of Lime Stabilized Soil Cushion on Strength Behaviour of Expansive Soil

An experimental investigation was undertaken to study the effects of lime-stabilized soil-cushion on the strength behavior of expansive soil. In the present investigation, a series of laboratory tests (Unconfined compression tests and CBR tests) were conducted on both expansive soil alone and expansive soil cushioned with lime-stabilized non-expansive cohesive soil. Lime contents of 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10% by dry weight of cohesive non-swelling soil was used in the stabilized soil cushion. Both expansive soil and lime stabilized soil cushion were compacted to Standard Proctor’s optimum condition with thickness ratio 2:1. Tests on cushioned expansive soils were conducted at different curing and soaking periods i.e., 7, 14, 28 and 56 days. The test results revealed that maximum increase in strength was achieved after 14 days of curing or soaking period with 8% of lime content.     

Public perceptions of rainfall change in India

People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.     

The response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson’s r = ?0.66 and r = ?0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = ?0.72 and r = ?0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by ~40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land–sea temperature gradients.     

Geochemistry and magnetostratigraphy of deccan flows at Anjar, Kutch

Chemical analysis of nine Deccan flow basalts at Anjar, Kutch, western India, indicates that all, except the uppermost flow F-9, are alkaline. In their major and trace element composition, the alkali basalts resemble Ocean island basalts (OIB). Similarities of many diagnostic trace element ratios (e.g. Sm/Nd, Ba/Nb,Y/Nb and Zr/Nb) are similar to those found in the Réunion Island basalts. The uppermost basalt is tholeiitic and chemically resembles the least contaminated Deccan basalt (Ambenali type). The Anjar basalts have iridium concentration ranging between 2 and 178 pg/g. Some of these values are higher by about an order of magnitude compared to the Ir concentration in other basalts of the Deccan. A synthesis of chemical, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data enables us to construct a chemical and magnetic stratigraphy for these flows. The three flows below the iridium enriched intertrappean bed (IT III) show normal magnetic polarity whereas all except one of the upper basalts show reversed magnetic polarity. The sequence seems to have started in polarity zones 31N and probably continued up to 28R or 27R. The results presented here support the view that Deccan volcanism in Kutch occurred on a time span of a few million years.     

Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.     

On the stability of triangular points in the elliptic R3BP under radiating and oblate primaries

This paper investigates the stability of triangular equilibrium points (L _4,5) in the elliptic restricted three-body problem (ER3BP), when both oblate primaries emit light energy simultaneously. The positions of the triangular points are seen to shift away from the line joining the primaries than in the classical case on account of the introduction of the eccentricity, semi-major axis, radiation and oblateness factors of both primaries. This is shown for the binary systems Achird, Luyten 726-8, Kruger 60, Alpha Centauri AB and Xi Bootis. We found that motion around these points is conditionally stable with respect to the parameters involved in the system dynamics. The region of stability increases and decreases with variability in eccentricity, oblateness and radiation pressures.