Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties

The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990–2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability.     

Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today??s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region??s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder?Cscientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.     

Reflections on the current state of global climate response

What is the significance of the 2007 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali? The formal outcomes, especially the ‘Bali Action Plan’, are described and commented on, along with the challenges for negotiating a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen during 2008 and 2009. The article concludes that the outcome of the Bali meeting is insufficient when compared to the nature of the challenge posed by climate change. However, it can nevertheless be considered a success in terms of ‘Realpolitik’ in paving the way for the negotiations ahead, because some real changes have been discerned in the political landscape. The challenges for the road towards Copenhagen are manifold: the sheer volume and complexity of the issues and the far-reaching nature of decisions such as differentiation between non- Annex I countries pose significant challenges in themselves, while the dependency on the electoral process in the USA introduces a high element of risk into the whole process. The emergence of social justice as an issue turns climate policy into an endeavour to improve the world at large—thereby adding to the complexity. And, finally, the biggest challenge is the recognition that the climate problem requires a global solution, that Annex I and non-Annex I countries are mutually dependent on each other and that only cooperation regarding technology in combination with significant financial support will provide the chance to successfully tackle climate change.     

Understanding the Spatial Variability of Chlorophyll a and Total Suspended Matter Distribution Along the Southwest Bay of Bengal Using In-Situ and OCM-2 & MODIS-Aqua Measurements

Spatial and temporal distribution of chlorophyll a (chl a) and Total Suspended Matter (TSM) and inter comparison of Ocean Color Monitor-2 (OCM-2) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS-Aqua) derived chlorophyll a and TSM was made along the southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB). The in-situ chl a and TSM concentration measured during different seasons were ranged from 0.09 to 10.63 μgl^?1 and 11.04–43.75 mgl^?1 respectively. OCM-2 and MODIS derived chl a showed the maximum (6–8 μgl^?1) at nearshore waters and the minimum (0–1 μgl^?1) along the offshore waters. OCM-2 derived TSM imageries showed the maximum (50–60 mgl^?1) along the nearshore waters of Palk Strait and the moderate concentration (2–5 mgl^?1) was observed in the offshore waters. MODIS derived minimum TSM concentration (13.244 mgl^?1) was recorded along the offshore waters, while the maximum concentration of 15.78 mgl^?1 was found along the Kodiakarai region. The inter-comparison of OCM-2 and MODIS chl a data (R ² ?=?0.549, n?=?49, p?<?0.001, SEE?=?±0.117) indicate that MODIS data overestimates chl a concentration in the nearshore waters of the southern BoB compared to the OCM-2. The correlation between OCM-2 and MODIS-Aqua TSM data (R ² ?=?0.508, N?=?53, P?<?0.001 and SEE?=?±0.024) confirms that variation in the range of values measured by OCM-2 (2–60 mgl^?1) and the MODIS (13–16 mgl^?1) derived TSM values. Despite problems in range of measurements, persistent cloud cover etc., the launch of satellites like OCM-2 with relatively high spatial resolutions makes job easier and possible to monitor chl a distribution and sediment discharges on day to day basis in the southwest BoB.     

The influence of solar‐induced thermal stresses on the mechanical weathering of rocks in humid mid‐latitudes

The role of solar‐induced thermal stresses in the mechanical breakdown of rock in humid‐temperate climates has remained relatively unexplored. In contrast, numerous studies have demonstrated that cracks in rocks found in more arid mid‐latitude locations exhibit preferred northeast orientations that are interpreted to be a consequence of insolation‐related cracking. Here we hypothesize that similar insolation‐related mechanisms may be efficacious in humid temperate climates, possibly in conjunction with other mechanical weathering processes. To test this hypothesis, we collected rock and crack data from a total of 310 rocks at a forested field site in North Carolina (99 rocks, 266 cracks) and at forested and unforested field sites in Pennsylvania (211 rocks, 664 cracks) in the eastern United States. We find that overall, measured cracks exhibit statistically preferred strike orientations (47° ± 16), as well as dip angles (52° ± 24°), that are similar in most respects to comparable datasets from mid‐latitude deserts. There is less variance in strike orientations for larger cracks suggesting that cracks with certain orientations are preferentially propagated through time. We propose that diurnally repeating geometries of solar‐related stresses result in propagation of those cracks whose orientations are favorably oriented with respect to those stresses. We hypothesize that the result is an oriented rock heterogeneity that acts as a zone of weakness much like bedding or foliation that can, in turn, be exploited by other weathering processes. Observed crack orientations vary somewhat by location, consistent with this hypothesis given the different latitude and solar exposure of the field sites. Crack densities vary between field sites and are generally higher on north‐facing boulder‐faces and in forested sites, suggesting that moisture‐availability also plays a role in dictating cracking rates. These data provide evidence that solar‐induced thermal stresses facilitate mechanical weathering in environments where other processes are also likely at play. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrography and geochemistry of manganiferous rocks in the Mankwadzi area in the southern Kibi‐Winneba metavolcanic belt,Ghana: Implications for genesis of Mn formations in the Birimian of West Africa

Manganiferous rocks in the Mankwadzi area in the southernmost portion of the Kibi‐Winneba metavolcanic belt, one of several Mn occurrences in the Paleoproterozoic Birimian of Ghana, are hosted in hornblende schist and amphibolite. These rocks are, in places, intruded by hornblende dyke. In outcrop, the manganiferous rocks appear to be conformable with the host schist and amphibolite, are macroscopically dark, fine‐grained and structurally massive to distinctly banded. Observed alternating light and dark occasionally macro‐folded bands suggest post‐depositional deformation of both light and dark bands. Microscopic observations revealed that the light bands are dominantly Si‐rich and the dark bands mainly of opaque minerals. Whole rock analyses of the manganiferous rocks show high contents of MnO (16.75–27.4 wt%) suggesting that the opaque minerals are likely rich in Mn. The analyzed rock samples show moderate to strong enrichments in light rare earth elements compared to heavy rare earth elements. Whereas the manganiferous rocks show perceptibly negative Eu anomaly, host hornblende schist and hornblende dyke do not. Eu anomaly in amphibolite samples is, however, uncertain as the three samples analyzed gave positive, negative and no Eu anomalies. Based on the field characteristics, microscopic and geochemical features, we suggest that the Mn occurrence in the Mankwadzi area originated via sedimentary deposition and was later modified by metamorphism, hydrothermal and/or supergene processes similar to manganiferous occurrences at Nsuta and Tambao in the Birimian of West Africa.     

Plasmaspheric hiss overview and relation to chorus

A brief overview is given of the history of plasmaspheric hiss research, particularly in the context of the recent work by Bortnik et al. (2008) indicating that chorus could be the likely source of plasmaspheric hiss. Previous suggestions given in the literature for this theory are reviewed and then the mechanism itself is outlined, focusing on the characteristic cyclical trajectories executed by typical ray paths that enter into the plasmasphere. A number of directional propagation studies performed in the past are then discussed as well as other work which bears relevance to the present mechanism.