Modelling of malaria incidence in Akure,Nigeria: negative binomial approach

The connections between malaria incidence and climate variability have been studied in recent time using some mathematical and statistical models. Many of the statistical models in literature focused on time series approach based on Box–Jenkins methodology. However, fitting time series model based on the Box–Jenkins methodology may be challenging. Most malaria incidence data are count and are over-dispersed. In this study, negative binomial models were formulated for fitting malaria incidence in Akure—one of the epidemic cities in Nigeria. In particular, negative binomial models were formulated for each of the number of outpatient individuals, number of inpatient individuals and mortality count as a function of some climate variables. It was found that an increase in minimum temperature and relative humidity at lag 1 significantly increased the chance of malaria transmission and thereby leads to an increase in the number of inpatient and outpatient individuals, as well as the total number of malaria cases. The minimum temperature, rainfall amount and relative humidity of the study area have a significant impact on the increase of number of inpatient and outpatient individuals while mortality count depends on the total number of reported malaria cases. The findings from this study is to offer in-depth understanding on climate-malaria incidence linkages in Akure, Nigeria.

     

Nanoscale Chemical Imaging by Photo‐Induced Force Microscopy: Technical Aspects and Application to the Geosciences

Photo‐induced force microscopy (PiFM) is a new‐frontier technique that combines the advantages of atomic force microscopy with infrared spectroscopy and allows for the simultaneous acquisition of 3D topographic data with molecular chemical information at high spatial (~ 5 nm) and spectral (~ 1 cm^?1) resolution at the nanoscale. This non‐destructive technique is time efficient as it requires only conventional mirror‐polishing and has fast mapping rates on the order of a few minutes that allow the study of dynamic processes via time series. Here, we review the method’s historical development, working principle, data acquisition, and evaluation, and provide a comparison with traditional geochemical methods. We review PiFM studies in the areas of materials science, chemistry and biology. In addition, we provide the first applications for geochemical samples including the visualization of faint growth zonation in zircons, the identification of fluid speciation in high‐pressure experimental samples, and of nanoscale organic phases in biominerals. We demonstrate that PiFM analysis is a time‐ and cost‐efficient technique combining high‐resolution surface imaging with molecular chemical information at the nanoscale and, thus, complements and expands traditional geochemical methods.     

Nano‐Powdered Calcium Carbonate Reference Materials: Significant Progress for Microanalysis?

Homogeneity, mass fractions of about forty trace elements and Sr isotope composition of Ca carbonate reference materials (RMs) between original and nano‐powdered pellets are compared. Our results using nanosecond and femtosecond LA‐(MC)‐ICP‐MS show that the nano‐pellets of the RMs MACS‐3NP, JCp‐1NP and JCt‐1NP are about a factor of 2–3 more homogeneous than the original samples MACS‐3, JCp‐1 and JCt‐1, and are therefore much more suitable for microanalytical purposes. With the exception of Si, the mass fractions of the synthetic RM MACS‐3 agree with its fine‐grained analogue MACS‐3NP. Very small, but significant, differences between original and nano‐pellets are observed in the RMs JCp‐1 and JCt‐1 for some trace elements with very low contents, indicating the need for re‐certification. Strontium mass fractions in the analysed RMs are high (1500–7000 mg kg^?1), and their isotope compositions determined by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS in the original and the nano‐pellets agree within uncertainty limits.     

Simulating Seepage into Mine Shafts and Tunnels with MODFLOW

In cases when an equivalent porous medium assumption is suitable for simulating groundwater flow in bedrock aquifers, estimation of seepage into underground mine workings (UMWs) can be achieved by specifying MODFLOW drain nodes at the contact between water bearing rock and dewatered mine openings. However, this approach results in significant numerical problems when applied to simulate seepage into an extensive network of UMWs, which often exist at the mine sites. Numerical simulations conducted for individual UMWs, such as a vertical shaft or a horizontal drift, showed that accurate prediction of seepage rates can be achieved by either applying grid spacing that is much finer than the diameter/width of the simulated openings (explicit modeling) or using coarser grid with cell sizes exceeding the characteristic width of shafts or drifts by a factor of 3. Theoretical insight into this phenomenon is presented, based on the so-called well-index theory. It is demonstrated that applying this theory allows to minimize numerical errors associated with MODFLOW simulation of seepage into UMWs on a relatively coarse Cartesian grid. Presented examples include simulated steady-state groundwater flow from homogeneous, heterogeneous, and/or anisotropic rock into a vertical shaft, a horizontal drift/cross-cut, a ramp, two parallel drifts, and a combined system of a vertical shaft connected to a horizontal drift.     

Satellite remote sensing for mapping vegetation in New Zealand freshwater environments: A review

Freshwater environments in New Zealand provide a range of ecosystem services and contain important biodiversity. Managing these environments effectively requires a comprehensive inventory of the resource and cost-effective tools for regular monitoring. The complex and extensive margins of natural water bodies make them difficult to sample comprehensively. Problems thus occur with extrapolating point-specific sampling to accurately represent the diversity of vegetation in large freshwater bodies. Mapping freshwater vegetation using satellite remote sensing can overcome problems associated with access, scale and distribution, but it requires high-resolution images that have appropriate spectral characteristics. This paper provides an overview of the optical satellite data characteristics required for mapping riparian, submerged and emergent vegetation associated with freshwater environments in New Zealand.     

Earthquake loss estimation for the New York City Metropolitan Region

This study is a thorough risk and loss assessment of potential earthquakes in the NY–NJ–CT Metropolitan Region. This study documents the scale and extent of damage and disruption that may result if earthquakes of various magnitudes occurred in this area. Combined with a detailed geotechnical soil characterization of the region, scenario earthquakes were modeled in HAZUS (Hazards US), a standardized earthquake loss estimation methodology and modeling program. Deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios were modeled and simulated, which provided intensities of ground shaking, dollar losses associated with capital (the building inventory) and subsequent income losses. This study has also implemented a detailed critical (essential) facilities analysis, assessing damage probabilities and facility functionality after an earthquake. When viewed in context with additional information about regional demographics and seismic hazards, the model and results serve as a tool to identify the areas, structures and systems with the highest risk and to quantify and ultimately reduce those risks.     

Quantifying the EEJ current with ground-based ionosonde inferred vertical E × B drifts in the morning hours over Ilorin,West Africa

The relationship between the ground-based inferred vertical E × B drifts, Vz, and the magnetic equatorial electrojet current during the year of solar minima was presented. Both the diurnal and seasonal Vz variations are positively directed during the daytime and negative at nighttime. The evening time pre-reversal enhancement occurs around 19:00 LT. The fairly strong linear relationship between the electrojet current strength and Vz exhibited higher correlations during the daytime (06:00–16:00 LT). The maximum morning time proxy parameter described by E = [d (ΔH _ILR)/dt]_max in the morning hours, indicating the east-west electric field in the EEJ, corresponds reasonably well with the E × B drift and, hence, can be used as a proxy parameter for representing Vz in the morning hours. The daytime EEJ magnitude seasonal changes are connected with a change in conductivity emerging from the action of turbulence and divergence of momentum flux. These waves above the dynamo region are suggested to lead to partial counter electrojet during the equinoctial months.     

Evidence for Systemic Changes in the Benthic Fauna of Tropical Estuaries as a Result of Urbanization

The effects of urban development cause substantial physical changes in coastal waterways through hardening and reclamation of river banks, alteration of water flow, and diffuse and point-source discharges of pollutants. The cumulative effects of urbanization on the fauna of estuaries are not well understood. This study examined the benthic infauna of two urban and three rural estuaries near Townsville, North Queensland. A range of univariate and multivariate statistics was used to relate variation in the benthic assemblages to concentrations of contaminants (heavy metals and hydrocarbons) within the sediments of each estuary. Sediments in the most developed estuary contained concentrations of heavy metals and petroleum hydrocarbons that were several orders of magnitude greater than those from non-urban waterways. The fauna at these sites was dominated by cirratulid and sternaspid polychaetes and lacked filter-feeding bivalves and other molluscs that were common in less developed estuaries. These differences were generally consistent throughout each estuary, indicating estuary-wide patterns of change, that were most strongly associated with spatial patterns in the distribution of Pb, Cu and hydrocarbons.     

The Moho Structure in The Western Eger Rift: A Receiver Function Experiment

We used teleseismic recordings of a temporary deployment of seismic stations and of permanent short period stations in the western Eger Rift system to study the lithosphere with the help of Receiver Functions. The crust-mantle boundary (Moho) is observed at almost all stations by strong P-to-S converted phases. The Moho is basically flat between about 26 – 30 km depth in the entire region. At one station in the Eger Rift (BOH-1, Loket castle) no Moho is observed. We interpret this with the existence of a broad gradient zone there, instead of a sharp discontinuity. This observation, however, needs to be confirmed by more data.     

Complex patterns of catchment solute–discharge relationships for coastal plain rivers

Riverine solute versus discharge (C–Q) relationships provide information about the magnitude and dynamics of material fluxes from landscapes. We analysed long‐term patterns of C–Q relationships for 44 rivers in Florida across a suite of geogenic, nutrient, and organic solutes and investigated land cover, watershed size, and surficial geology as controls on these patterns. Solute concentrations generally exhibited far less variability than did discharge, with coherent solute‐specific behaviours repeated across watersheds. Geogenic solutes generally diluted with increasing discharge, whereas organic solutes generally enriched; patterns for nutrients were highly variable across watersheds, but on average exhibited chemostasis. Despite strong evidence of both geologic and land cover controls on solute flow‐weighted concentrations, these variables were poor predictors of C–Q slopes (β) or relative coefficients of variation (CV_C:CV_Q). CV_C:CV_Q generally increased with watershed size, and wetland area appeared to influence C–Q patterns for base cations and organic solutes. Perhaps most importantly, we observed significant slope breaks in C–Q association in approximately half of our observations, challenging the generality of using single power functions to describe catchment solute export patterns. For all solutes except phosphorus (P), C–Q slopes decreased above statistically identified breaks (slopes for P increased), with breaks consistently at or near median flow (i.e., 50% flow exceedance probability). This common pattern significantly impacts solute load estimates; failing to account for slope breaks overestimates nitrate and total organic carbon loads as much as 125% and underestimates P loads as much as 35%. In addition to challenging generic power‐law characterization of C–Q relationships for these coastal plain rivers, and exploring the load estimate consequences thereof, our study supports emerging insights about watershed hydrochemical behaviours across a wide array of solutes.