Earthquake loss estimation for the New York City Metropolitan Region

This study is a thorough risk and loss assessment of potential earthquakes in the NY–NJ–CT Metropolitan Region. This study documents the scale and extent of damage and disruption that may result if earthquakes of various magnitudes occurred in this area. Combined with a detailed geotechnical soil characterization of the region, scenario earthquakes were modeled in HAZUS (Hazards US), a standardized earthquake loss estimation methodology and modeling program. Deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios were modeled and simulated, which provided intensities of ground shaking, dollar losses associated with capital (the building inventory) and subsequent income losses. This study has also implemented a detailed critical (essential) facilities analysis, assessing damage probabilities and facility functionality after an earthquake. When viewed in context with additional information about regional demographics and seismic hazards, the model and results serve as a tool to identify the areas, structures and systems with the highest risk and to quantify and ultimately reduce those risks.     

Impacts of wildfire and post-fire land management on hydrological and sediment processes in a humid Mediterranean headwater catchment

The extensive afforestation of the Mediterranean rim of Europe in recent decades has increased the number of wildfire disturbances on hydrological and sediment processes, but the impacts on headwater catchments is still poorly understood, especially when compared with the previous agricultural landscape. This work monitored an agroforestry catchment in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, with plantation forests mixed with traditional agriculture using soil conservation practices, for one year before the fire and for three years afterwards, during which period the burnt area was ploughed and reforested. During this period, continuous data was collected for meteorology, streamflow and sediment concentration at the outlet, erosion features were mapped and measured after major rainfall events, and channel sediment dynamics were monitored downstream from the agricultural and the burnt forest area. Data from 202 rainfall events with over 10 mm was analysed in detail. Results show that the fire led to a notable impact on sediment processes during the first two post-fire years, but not on streamflow processes; this despite the small size of the burnt area (10% of the catchment) and the occurrence of a severe drought in the first year after the fire. During this period, soil loss at the burnt forest slopes was much larger than that at most traditionally managed fields, and, ultimately, led to sediment exhaustion. At the catchment scale, storm characteristics were the dominant factor behind streamflow and sediment yield both before and after the fire. However, the data indicated a shift from detachment-limited sediment yield before the fire, to transport-limited sediment yield afterwards, with important increases in streamflow sediment concentration. This indicates that even small fires can temporarily change sediment processes in agroforestry catchments, with potential negative consequences for downstream water quality.     

Non‐Matrix‐Matched Calibration for the Multi‐Element Analysis of Geological and Environmental Samples Using 200 nm Femtosecond LA‐ICP‐MS: A Comparison with Nanosecond Lasers

LA‐ICP‐MS is one of the most promising techniques for in situ analysis of geological and environmental samples. However, there are some limitations with respect to measurement accuracy, in particular for volatile and siderophile/chalcophile elements, when using non‐matrix‐matched calibration. We therefore investigated matrix‐related effects with a new 200 nm femtosecond (fs) laser ablation system (NWRFemto200) using reference materials with different matrices and spot sizes from 10 to 55 μm. We also performed similar experiments with two nanosecond (ns) lasers, a 193 nm excimer (ESI NWR 193) and a 213 nm Nd:YAG (NWR UP‐213) laser. The ion intensity of the 200 nm fs laser ablation was much lower than that of the 213 nm Nd:YAG laser, because the ablation rate was a factor of about 30 lower. Our experiments did not show significant matrix dependency with the 200 nm fs laser. Therefore, a non‐matrix‐matched calibration for the multi‐element analysis of quite different matrices could be performed. This is demonstrated with analytical results from twenty‐two international synthetic silicate glass, geological glass, mineral, phosphate and carbonate reference materials. Calibration was performed with the certified NIST SRM 610 glass, exclusively. Within overall analytical uncertainties, the 200 nm fs LA‐ICP‐MS data agreed with available reference values.     

Image data fusion for the remote sensing of freshwater environments

Remote sensing based mapping of diverse and heterogeneous freshwater environments requires high-resolution images. Data fusion is a useful technique for producing a high-resolution multispectral image from the merging of a high-resolution panchromatic image with a low-resolution multispectral image. Given the increasing availability of images from different satellite sensors that have different spectral and spatial resolutions, data fusion techniques that combine the strengths of different images will be increasingly important to Geography for land-cover mapping. Different data fusion methods however, add spectral and spatial distortions to the resultant data depending on the geographical context; therefore a careful selection of the fusion method is required. This paper compares a technique called subtractive resolution merge, which has not previously been formally tested, with conventional techniques such as Brovey transformation, principal component substitution, local mean and variance matching, and optimised high pass filter addition. Data fusion techniques are grouped into spectral and spatial centric methods. Subtractive resolution merge belongs to a new class of data fusion techniques that uses a mix of both spatial and spectral centric approaches. The different data fusion techniques were applied to a QuickBird image of a semi-aquatic freshwater environment in New Zealand. The results were compared both qualitatively and quantitatively using spectral and spatial error metrics. This research concludes that subtractive resolution merge performed better than all the other techniques and will be a valuable technique for enhancing images for freshwater land-cover mapping.     

A high-resolution 43-year atmospheric hindcast for South America generated with the MPI regional model

An evaluation of the present-day climate in South America simulated by the MPI atmospheric limited area model, REMO, is made. The model dataset was generated by dynamical downscaling from the ECMWF-ERA40 reanalysis and compared to in-situ observations. The model is able to reproduce the low-level summer monsoon circulation but it has some deficiencies in representing the South American Low-Level Jet structure. At upper levels, summer circulation features like the Bolivian High and the associated subtropical jet are well simulated by the model. Sea-level pressure fields are in general well represented by REMO. The model exhibits reasonable skill in representing the general features of the mean seasonal cycle of precipitation. Nevertheless, there is a systematic overestimation of precipitation in both tropical and subtropical regions. Differences between observed and modeled temperature are smaller than 1.5°C over most of the continent, excepting during spring when those differences are quite large. Results also show that the dynamical downscaling performed using REMO introduces some enhancement of the global reanalysis especially in temperature at the tropical regions during the warm season and in precipitation in both the subtropics and extratropics. It is then concluded that REMO can be a useful tool for regional downscaling of global simulations of present and future climates.     

Interplay between detrital and diagenetic processes since the last glacial maximum on the northwest Iberian continental shelf

Integrated analyses of magnetic, geochemical and textural data on six cores from the northwestern Iberian continental shelf allowed the reconstruction of the paleoenvironmental evolution of this area since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Four sedimentary units were identified, representing a succession from fluvial and subaerial settings to high and finally low-energy marine deposits subsequent to the post-LGM sea-level rise. The uppermost unit was deposited during the Holocene and its magnetic properties were controlled by the interplay between detrital input and early diagenetic reductive dissolution of magnetic minerals. Identification of a primary steady-state early diagenetic signal allowed the recognition of periods of increased detrital input, bounded by intervals of lower detrital input and intensified reductive diagenesis related to intensified upwelling in the area. These paleoenvironmental alternations are consistent with the climatic evolution of the late Holocene. During the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Period, the combined effect of greater humidity and intense agricultural and mining activities led to a greater erosion and transport of detrital sediments to the shelf. In contrast, enhanced diagenetic reduction intervals, caused by upwelling intensification, were roughly coincident with the colder Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age.     

Long-term simulation of Indonesian rainfall with the MPI regional model

Simulations of the Indonesian rainfall variability using the Max Planck Institute regional climate model REMO have been performed using three different lateral boundary forcings: Reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA15), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NRA) as well as from ECHAM4 climate model simulation. The result of those simulations are compared to station data. REMO simulations were performed at 0.5° horizontal resolution for the whole archipelago and at 1/6° for Sulawesi Island. In general the REMO model, reproduces the spatial pattern of monthly and seasonal rainfall well over land, but overestimates the rainfall over sea. Superiority of REMO performance over land is due to a high-resolution orography, while over sea, REMO suffers from erroneously low surface fluxes. REMO reproduces variability during El Niño-Southern Oscillations years well but fails to show a good (wet and dry) monsoon contrast. Despite strong influences of the lateral boundary fields, REMO shows a realistic improvement of a local phenomenon over Molucca. Significant improvement for the step from the relatively high global 1.125° to 0.5° resolution is noticeable, but not from 0.5° into 1/6°. The REMO simulation driven by ERA15 has the best quality, followed by NRA and ECHAM4 driven simulations. The quality of ERA15 is the main factor determining the quality of REMO simulations. A predictability study shows small internal variability among ensemble members. However, there are systematic intrinsic climatological errors as shown in the predictability analysis. These intrinsic errors have monthly, seasonal and regional dependencies and the one over Java is significantly large. The intrinsic error study suggests the presence of the spring predictability barrier and a high level of predictability in summer.