Discontinuous Steady‐State Analytical Solutions of the Boussinesq Equation and Their Numerical Representation by Modflow

Known analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations are routinely used for verification of computer codes. However, these analytical solutions (e.g., the Dupuit solution for the steady‐state unconfined unidirectional flow in a uniform aquifer with a flat bottom) represent smooth and continuous water table configurations, simulating which does not pose any significant problems for the numerical groundwater flow models, like MODFLOW. One of the most challenging numerical cases for MODFLOW arises from drying‐rewetting problems often associated with abrupt changes in the elevations of impervious base of a thin unconfined aquifer. Numerical solutions of groundwater flow equations cannot be rigorously verified for such cases due to the lack of corresponding exact analytical solutions. Analytical solutions of the steady‐state Boussinesq equation, associated with the discontinuous water table configurations over a stairway impervious base, are presented in this article. Conditions resulting in such configurations are analyzed and discussed. These solutions appear to be well suited for testing and verification of computer codes. Numerical solutions, obtained by the latest versions of MODFLOW (MODFLOW‐2005 and MODFLOW‐NWT), are compared with the presented discontinuous analytical solutions. It is shown that standard MODFLOW‐2005 code (as well as MODFLOW‐2000 and older versions) has significant convergence problems simulating such cases. The problems manifest themselves either in a total convergence failure or erroneous results. Alternatively, MODFLOW‐NWT, providing a good match to the presented discontinuous analytical solutions, appears to be a more reliable and appropriate code for simulating abrupt changes in water table elevations.     

Quantifying the EEJ current with ground-based ionosonde inferred vertical E × B drifts in the morning hours over Ilorin,West Africa

The relationship between the ground-based inferred vertical E × B drifts, Vz, and the magnetic equatorial electrojet current during the year of solar minima was presented. Both the diurnal and seasonal Vz variations are positively directed during the daytime and negative at nighttime. The evening time pre-reversal enhancement occurs around 19:00 LT. The fairly strong linear relationship between the electrojet current strength and Vz exhibited higher correlations during the daytime (06:00–16:00 LT). The maximum morning time proxy parameter described by E = [d (ΔH _ILR)/dt]_max in the morning hours, indicating the east-west electric field in the EEJ, corresponds reasonably well with the E × B drift and, hence, can be used as a proxy parameter for representing Vz in the morning hours. The daytime EEJ magnitude seasonal changes are connected with a change in conductivity emerging from the action of turbulence and divergence of momentum flux. These waves above the dynamo region are suggested to lead to partial counter electrojet during the equinoctial months.     

Earthquake loss estimation for the New York City Metropolitan Region

This study is a thorough risk and loss assessment of potential earthquakes in the NY–NJ–CT Metropolitan Region. This study documents the scale and extent of damage and disruption that may result if earthquakes of various magnitudes occurred in this area. Combined with a detailed geotechnical soil characterization of the region, scenario earthquakes were modeled in HAZUS (Hazards US), a standardized earthquake loss estimation methodology and modeling program. Deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios were modeled and simulated, which provided intensities of ground shaking, dollar losses associated with capital (the building inventory) and subsequent income losses. This study has also implemented a detailed critical (essential) facilities analysis, assessing damage probabilities and facility functionality after an earthquake. When viewed in context with additional information about regional demographics and seismic hazards, the model and results serve as a tool to identify the areas, structures and systems with the highest risk and to quantify and ultimately reduce those risks.     

A comparison of the BALTIMOS coupled climate model with atmospheric and sea surface parameters derived from AMSR-E

The BALTEX Integrated Model System (BALTIMOS) coupled atmosphere ocean model was compared to passive microwave observations of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Emphasis was put on quantifying the uncertainties associated with the different variables based on data screening both in the model and observations. Monthly means of three atmospheric parameters, as well as sea surface temperature, were compared for a period of 1 year. Sea ice extent was also derived from AMSR-E and compared to the model data on a daily basis. It is shown that the accuracy of the comparisons on a monthly mean basis is limited by precipitation screening. Out of the three atmospheric parameters, surface wind speed and water vapor column amount agree with the model data to within the accuracy of the comparison. The vertically integrated cloud liquid water content diagnosed from BALTIMOS is systematically higher than the liquid water content derived from satellite, even if potential systematic errors are accounted for. In terms of coupling, the two most relevant variables discussed are sea surface temperature and sea ice extent. The temporal extent of sea ice in the investigation area is well represented, as are the periods of the main growing and decay periods. The total sea ice cover appears to be underestimated by BALTIMOS, especially in the peak season between January and the beginning of March. The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature in BALTIMOS appears to be too weak compared to the observations, leading to too cold sea surface temperatures in summer and too warm sea surface temperatures in winter. This might also partially explain the underestimation of sea ice cover by BALTIMOS.