Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.     

Neuere Ergebnisse der Braunkohlen- und Torf-Petrographie. Gedanken zur Mazeral-Klassifikation

Zusammenfassung Die Mazeral-Klassifikation von Torf und Weichbraunkohle muß tunlichst auf die Steinkohlen-Nomenklatur Bezug nehmen und nach gleichen bzw. ähnlichen Prinzipien erfolgen. Ferner hat sie technologischen Gesichtspunkten Rechnung zu tragen. Die vom Verfasser vorgeschlagene Nomenklatur wird diesen Anforderungen gerecht. Da Torfe und Weichbraunkohlen heterogener als Steinkohlen sind, ist eine stärkere Gliederung erforderlich. 5 Gruppen (Exinit, Xylinit, Detrinit, Dopplerinit und Inertinit) werden jeweils in 3 Untergruppen eingeteilt. Diese erfahren eine weitere Gliederung nach Mazeralen. Abschließend weist der Verfasser darauf hin, daß durch Kombination der Weichbraunkohlen- und Steinkohlen-Klassifikation auch den Belangen der Hartbraunkohlen-Petrographie Rechnung getragen werden kann.     

Planetary Embryos Never Formed in the Kuiper Belt

We study the orbital evolutions of various systems of planetary embryos in the transneptunian region, undergoing mutual scattering and perturbations from the giant planets. We show that about 15-20% of the original embryos should survive in the transneptunian region at the current epoch. The orbital dispersion of the surviving embryos depends on their individual mass, so that only lunar mass embryos could survive with semimajor axis smaller than 50 AU. In all cases, we show by a Monte Carlo model that at least one of the surviving embryos should have already been discovered by one of the most effective Kuiper-belt surveys. This implies that planetary embryos did not form in the transneptunian region (or have been removed by some external and unknown mechanism). Therefore, we conclude that the Kuiper belt was not excited by resident planetary embryos, unlike the asteroid belt. We also compute with the Monte Carlo model that a significant number (order 10) of Pluto-size bodies could exist only on very eccentric and long-periodic orbits, typical of the scattered disk, while the existence of about 30 bodies brighter than absolute magnitude 4 in the classical belt is compatible with the discovery of Varuna by the Spacewatch survey.     

An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.     

Some observations of eddy momentum fluxes within a maize canopy

Vertical momentum fiuxes measured by analog covariance equipment and hot-wire anemometers inside a dense canopy of mature maize vary exponentially with height above the ground. An attenuation coefficient of about 4 is indicated.This work was supported by the US Energy Research and Development Administration.Part of the Energy Research and Development Administration's Multistate Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP³S).