The Sub-Pc Scale Accretion Disk of Ngc 4258

Water megamasers have been found to trace parsec/sub-parsec, circumnuclear accretion disks in several AGN (e.g., Circinus, NGC 1068 & NGC 4258). High-spatial (0.5 mas) and velocity resolution (0.2 km s^–1) VLBA imaging of the disks reveals thin, warped pannekoeken (pancake)-style structures as opposed to thick tori in the inner regions of the central engines (40 000 R_sch). In this contribution, I will describe some current investigations into the dynamical and physical attributes of the water maser disk in NGC 4258, as revealed by VLBA, VLA and Effelsberg monitoring over 8 years.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.     

Hydrothermal models of the Perth metropolitan area, Western Australia: implications for geothermal energy

Hydrothermal simulations are used to provide insight into the subsurface thermal regime of the Perth metropolitan area (PMA) in Western Australia. High average permeabilities and estimated fluid flow rates in shallow aquifers of the PMA suggest that advection and convection may occur in these aquifers. These processes are simulated, using a new geological model of the PMA to constrain the geometry of aquifers, aquitards and faults. The results show that advection has a strong influence on subsurface temperature, especially in the north of the PMA, where aquifer recharge creates an area of anomalously low temperature. Convection may be important, depending on the permeability of the Yarragadee Aquifer. If convection occurs, it creates thermal highs and lows with a spacing of approximately 5 km. Some of these thermal anomalies migrate over geological time due to coupling between advection and convection, but they are stationary on human timescales. Fault permeability influences the pattern of convection. Advection and convection cause variations in the geothermal gradient which cannot be predicted by conductive models; therefore, these processes should be considered in any model that is used for assessment of geothermal resources in the PMA.     

Real-time difference imaging analysis of MOA Galactic bulge observations during 2000

We describe observations carried out by the MOA group of the Galactic bulge during 2000 that were designed to detect efficiently gravitational microlensing of faint stars in which the magnification is high and/or of short duration. These events are particularly useful for studies of extrasolar planets and faint stars. Approximately 17 deg² were monitored at a sampling rate of up to six times per night. The images were analysed in real time using a difference imaging technique. 20 microlensing candidates were detected, of which eight were alerted to the microlensing community whilst in progress. Approximately half of the candidates had high magnifications (≳10), at least one had very high magnification (≳50), and one exhibited a clear parallax effect. The details of these events are reported here, together with details of the on-line difference imaging technique. Some nova-like events were also observed and these are described, together with one asteroid.     

The potential for convection and implications for geothermal energy in the Perth Basin, Western Australia

Convection of groundwater in aquifers can create areas of anomalously high temperature at shallow depths which could be exploited for geothermal energy. Temperature measurements in the Perth Basin (Western Australia) reveal thermal patterns that are consistent with convection in the Yarragadee Aquifer. This observation is supported by Rayleigh number calculations, which show that convection is possible within the range of aquifer thickness, geothermal gradient, salinity gradient and permeability encountered in the Yarragadee Aquifer, assuming that the aquifer can be treated as a homogeneous anisotropic layer. Numerical simulations of convection in a simplified model of the Yarragadee Aquifer show that: (1) the spacing of convective upwellings can be predicted from aquifer thickness and permeability anisotropy; (2) convective upwellings may be circular or elongate in plan view; (3) convective upwellings create significant temperature enhancements relative to the conductive profile; (4) convective flow rates are similar to regional groundwater flow rates; and (5) convection homogenises salinity within the aquifer. Further work is required to constrain the average horizontal and vertical permeability of the Yarragadee Aquifer, to assess the validity of treating the aquifer as a homogeneous anisotropic layer, and to determine the impact of realistic aquifer geometry and advection on convection.     

Origin of dacites of Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Dacites form a relatively small proportion of lavas in the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand (5km³), and occur mainly on the eastern side. In this paper their origin is considered in terms of three processes: (a) partial melting of crustal rocks; (b) fractional crystallisation of basalt and andesite; and (c) sub-surface mixing of basic and acid magma. Modelling techniques are used to calculate the most acceptable degree of fractional crystallisation and magma mixing to fit major-element data, and these values are used to compare calculated and observed trace-element values. The success or failure of the model is determined by the closeness of the two sets of values. For partial-melt models, trace-element values alone are calculated by the batch-melting equation.Results indicate that White Island dacite can best be modelled by fractional crystallisation; Manawahe by fractional crystallisation plus limited crustal contamination; Maungaongaonga by partial melting of Western Basement greywacke, and Tauhara by partial melting of this greywacke together with minor mixing with a more basic magma. Results from Parekauau and Horohoro indicate that these lavas are unlikely to have formed by any of the processes examined.