Active tectonics of an apparently aseismic region: distributed active strike-slip faulting in the Hangay Mountains of central Mongolia

We identify and describe a series of east–west left-lateral strike-slip faults (named the Songino-Margats, the Hag Nuur, the Uliastay and the South Hangay fault systems) in the Hangay mountains of central Mongolia: an area that has little in the way of recorded seismicity and which is often considered as a rigid block within the India–Eurasia collision zone. The strike-slip faults of central Mongolia constitute a previously unrecognized hazard in this part of Mongolia. Each of the strike-slip faults show indications of late Quaternary activity in the form of aligned sequences of sag-ponds and pressure-ridges developed in alluvial deposits. Total bed-rock displacements of ∼3 km are measured on both the Songino-Margats and South Hangay fault systems. Bed-rock displacements of 11 km are observed across the Hag Nuur fault. Cumulative offset across the Uliastay fault systems are unknown but are unlikely to be large. We have no quantitative constraint on the age of faulting in the Hangay. The ≤20 km of cumulative slip on the Hangay faults might, at least in part, be inherited from earlier tectonic movements. Our observations show that, despite the almost complete absence of instrumentally recorded seismicity in the Hangay, this part of Mongolia is cut through by numerous distributed strike-slip faults that accommodate regional left-lateral shear between Siberia and China. Central Mongolia is thus an important component of the India–Eurasia collision that would be overlooked in models of the active tectonics based on the distribution of seismicity. We suggest that active faults such as those identified in the Hangay of Mongolia might exist in other, apparently aseismic, regions within continental collision zones.     

Wavelet-multivariate relevance vector machine hybrid model for forecasting daily evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle. It is a complex process driven mainly by weather parameters, and as such, is characterized by high non-linearity and non-stationarity. This paper introduces a methodology combining wavelet multiresolution analysis with a machine learning algorithm, the multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM), in order to predict 16 days of future daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This methodology lays the ground for forecasting the spatial distribution of ET using Landsat satellite imagery, hence the choice of 16 days, which corresponds with the Landsat overpass cycle. An accurate prediction of daily ETo is needed to improve the management of irrigation schedules as well as the operations of water supply facilities like canals and reservoirs. In this paper, various wavelet decompositions were performed and combined with MVRVM to develop hybrid models to predict ETo over a 16-days period. These models were compared to a MVRVM model, and models accuracy and robustness were evaluated. The addition of 10 days of forecasted air temperature as additional inputs to the forecasting models was also investigated. The results of the wavelet-MVRVM hybrid modeling methodology showed that a reliable forecast of ETo up to 16 days ahead is possible.     

Nonlinear Flow Process: A New Package to Compute Nonlinear Flow in MODFLOW

A new MODFLOW package (Nonlinear Flow Process; NLFP) simulating nonlinear flow following the Forchheimer equation was developed and implemented in MODLFOW‐2005. The method is based on an iterative modification of the conductance calculated and used by MODFLOW to obtain an effective Forchheimer conductance. The package is compatible with the different layer types, boundary conditions, and solvers as well as the wetting capability of MODFLOW. The correct implementation is demonstrated using four different benchmark scenarios for which analytical solutions are available. A scenario considering transient flow in a more realistic setting and a larger model domain with a higher number of cells demonstrates that NLFP performs well under more complex conditions, although it converges moderately slower than the standard MODFLOW depending on the nonlinearity of flow. Thus, this new tool opens a field of opportunities to groundwater flow simulation with MODFLOW, especially for core sample simulation or vuggy karstified aquifers as well as for nonlinear flow in the vicinity of pumping wells.     

The discovery of Segue 2: a prototype of the population of satellites of satellites

We announce the discovery of a new Milky Way satellite Segue 2 found in the data of the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE). We followed this up with deeper imaging and spectroscopy on the Multiple Mirror Telescope (MMT). From this, we derive a luminosity of   M _v =−2.5  , a half-light radius of 34 pc and a systemic velocity of  ∼−40 km s⁻¹  . Our data also provide evidence for a stream around Segue 2 at a similar heliocentric velocity, and the SEGUE data show that it is also present in neighbouring fields. We resolve the velocity dispersion of Segue 2 as 3.4 km s⁻¹ and the possible stream as  ∼7 km s⁻¹  . This object shows points of comparison with other recent discoveries, Segue 1, Boo II and Coma. We speculate that all four objects may be representatives of a population of satellites of satellites – survivors of accretion events that destroyed their larger but less dense parents. They are likely to have formed at redshifts   z > 10  and are good candidates for fossils of the reionization epoch.     

Magnetic cycles of the planet-hosting star τ Bootis – II. A second magnetic polarity reversal

In this paper, we present new spectropolarimetric observations of the planet-hosting star τ Bootis, using ESPaDOnS and Narval spectropolarimeters at Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope and Telescope Bernard Lyot, respectively.
We detected the magnetic field of the star at three epochs in 2008. It has a weak magnetic field of only a few gauss, oscillating between a predominant toroidal component in January and a dominant poloidal component in June and July. A magnetic polarity reversal was observed relative to the magnetic topology in 2007 June. This is the second such reversal observed in 2 years on this star, suggesting that τ Boo has a magnetic cycle of about 2 years. This is the first detection of a magnetic cycle for a star other than the Sun. The role of the close-in massive planet in the short activity cycle of the star is questioned.
τ Boo has a strong differential rotation, a common trend for stars with shallow convective envelope. At latitude 40°, the surface layer of the star rotates in 3.31 d, equal to the orbital period. Synchronization suggests that the tidal effects induced by the planet may be strong enough to force at least the thin convective envelope into corotation.
τ Boo shows variability in the Ca  ii H & K and Hα throughout the night and on a night-to-night time-scale. We do not detect enhancement in the activity of the star that may be related to the conjunction of the planet. Further data are needed to conclude about the activity enhancement due to the planet.     

A comprehensive program for countermeasures against potentially hazardous objects (PHOs)

At the hundredth anniversary of the Tunguska event in Siberia it is appropriate to discuss measures to avoid such occurrences in the future. Recent discussions about detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth objects (NEOs) center on objects larger than about 140 m in size. However, objects smaller than 100 m are more frequent and can cause significant regional destruction of civil infrastructures and population centers. The cosmic object responsible for the Tunguska event provides a graphic example: although it is thought to have been only about 50 to 60 m in size, it devastated an area of about 2000 km². Ongoing surveys aimed at early detection of a potentially hazardous object (PHO: asteroid or comet nucleus that approaches the Earth’s orbit within 0.05 AU) are only a first step toward applying countermeasures to prevent an impact on Earth. Because “early” may mean only a few weeks or days in the case of a Tunguska-sized object or a longperiod comet, deflecting the object by changing its orbit is beyond the means of current technology, and destruction and dispersal of its fragments may be the only reasonable solution. Highly capable countermeasures- always at the ready—are essential to defending against an object with such short warning time, and therefore short reaction time between discovery and impending impact. We present an outline for a comprehensive plan for countermeasures that includes smaller (Tunguska-sized) objects and long-period comets, focuses on short warning times, uses non-nuclear methods (e.g., hyper-velocity impactor devices and conventional explosives) whenever possible, uses nuclear munitions only when needed, and launches from the ground. The plan calls for international collaboration for action against a truly global threat.     

东北太平洋Explorer Ridge热液羽状流位温浊度异常和物质能量通量估算

深海热液流体与周围海水之间存在明显的物理和化学差异,通过检测海水的位温浊度异常是探测深海热液活动的重要手段之一。本文采用"海底火山带项目（Submarine Ring of Fire 2002）"拖曳式温盐深测量仪数据资料,研究了东北太平洋Explorer Ridge热液场的水文特征及物质能量通量的释放。结果表明Explorer Ridge热液场热液羽状流中性浮力层所在深度范围约为1 600~1 900 m,距离海底的高度约为200 m,最大位温、盐度和浊度异常分别为0.04℃、0.004和0.18 NTU;中性浮力层热液羽状流帽呈椭圆结构,其长轴与洋中脊线重合,羽状流帽总面积约为27 km2;热液羽状流在中性层范围内存在明显的分层现象,通过经验公式计算得到Explorer Ridge热液场观测范围内热液喷口的总的浮力通量为6.19×10-2 m4/s3,平均值为2.063×10-2 m4/s3;总的体积通量为9.884×10-2 m3/s,平均值为3.295×10-2 m3/s;总的热通量为194.9 MW,平均值为64.967 MW。     

The scale of forest transition: Amazonia and the Atlantic forests of Brazil

This article adapts a general equilibrium model that provides a spatial solution for land use, labor allocation, and product markets in a two good economy. The adaptation, based on von Thünen, considers the multi-regional case, and solves for two regions, one industrial and the other, a newly opened agricultural frontier. The conceptual framework is considered with reference to Brazil, where forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest occurs simultaneously with forest losses in Amazonia. Simulation results of the theoretical model are given, demonstrating the impacts of comparative advantage in regional agriculture on the spatial system. The main theoretical interest of the article, aside from providing a formal spatial statement, is to define a distinction between aggregate forest transition (A-FT), when the area of all forests in a multi-regional system increases with the advent of trade relations, and regional forest transition (R-FT), when forest recovery is spatially constrained, and depends on forest losses elsewhere. Thus, the article addresses the role of scale in defining forest transition, and does so by representing spatial dynamics with a formal model. It also suggests that forest transition privileges one biome at the expense of others, and that a concept of landscape turnaround is more germane from a wildlands conservation perspective. The article closes with a discussion of Brazil, and how its forests in Amazonia and along the Atlantic will fare in the coming years.     

Assessment of pingo distribution and morphometry using an IfSAR derived digital surface model, western Arctic Coastal Plain, Northern Alaska

Pingos are circular to elongate ice-cored mounds that form by injection and freezing of pressurized water in near-surface permafrost. Here we use a digital surface model (DSM) derived from an airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) system to assess the distribution and morphometry of pingos within a 40,000 km² area on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. We have identified 1247 pingo forms in the study region, ranging in height from 2 to 21 m, with a mean height of 4.6 m. Pingos in this region are of hydrostatic origin, with 98% located within 995 drained lake basins, most of which are underlain by thick eolian sand deposits. The highest pingo density (0.18 km^− 2) occurs where streams have reworked these deposits. Morphometric analyses indicate that most pingos are small to medium in size (< 200 m diameter), gently to moderately sloping (< 30°), circular to slightly elongate (mean circularity index of 0.88), and of relatively low height (2 to 5 m). However, 57 pingos stand higher than 10 m, 26 have a maximum slope greater than 30°, and 42 are larger than 200 m in diameter. Comparison with a legacy pingo dataset based on 1950s stereo-pair photography indicates that 66 may have partially or completely collapsed over the last half-century. However, we mapped over 400 pingos not identified in the legacy dataset, and identified only three higher than 2 m to have formed between ca. 1955 and ca. 2005, indicating that caution should be taken when comparing contemporary and legacy datasets derived by different techniques. This comprehensive database of pingo location and morphometry based on an IfSAR DSM may prove useful for land and resource managers as well as aid in the identification of pingo-like features on Mars.