联合机载PLMR微波辐射计和MODIS产品反演黑河中游张掖绿洲土壤水分研究

土壤水分是气候、水文学研究中的重要变量,微波遥感是获取区域地表土壤水分的重要手段,而L波段更是微波土壤水分反演的最优波段。依托HiWATER黑河中游绿洲试验区的地面观测及机载PLMR微波辐射计亮温数据,利用微波辐射传输模型L-MEB,并将MODIS地表温度产品(MOD11A1)和叶面积指数产品(MYD15A2)作为模型及反演中的先验辅助信息,借助LM优化算法,通过PLMR双极化多角度的亮温观测,针对土壤水分、植被含水量(VWC)和地表粗糙度这3个主要参数,分别进行土壤水分单参数反演、土壤水分与VWC或粗糙度的双参数反演以及这3个参数的同时反演。通过对不同反演方法的比较可以得出结论,多源辅助数据及PLMR双极化、多角度信息的应用可以显著降低反演的不确定性,提高土壤水分反演精度。证明在合理的模型参数和反演策略下,SMOS的L-MEB模型和产品算法可以达到0.04 cm3/cm3的反演精度,另外无线传感器网络可以在遥感产品真实性检验中起到重要作用。     

A framework to assess the vulnerability of California commercial sea urchin fishermen to the impact of MPAs under climate change

This paper describes the development of a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that estimates the relative ability of California commercial sea urchin fishermen to cope with the change associated with proposed marine protected areas. A key goal in establishing marine protected areas is to maximize conservation benefits while minimizing the potential negative impacts to local fishing communities. However, current impact analyses largely assume a linear relationship between percent of fishing area or revenue lost with the magnitude of impact to fishermen. The LVI described in this paper aims to provide an additional dimension to impact analyses in which the adaptive capacity of individual fishermen is examined to estimate the differential abilities of fishermen to cope with the loss of fishing areas or revenue. This paper advances vulnerability assessments as it develops a novel framework for identifying and measuring drivers of vulnerability for understudied fishing populations whose livelihoods depend upon marine resources. This vulnerability assessment is intended to inform the design of marine protected areas by enabling researchers to incorporate the adaptive capacity of fishermen into socioeconomic impact analyses. The LVI was developed for the California commercial sea urchin fishery in the context of proposed marine protected area networks develop through the California Marine Life Protected Act planning process. As climate change advances there is an increasing need to identify vulnerable and resilient populations and ways to bolster adaptive capacity given the environmental and economic changes ahead.     

Socio-cultural dimensions of climate change: charting the terrain

We have reached a crucial turning point in debates around climate change. A well established scientific consensus regarding the physical causes, dynamics, and at least many likely implications of anthropogenic climate change has thus far failed to result in any substantial movement towards mitigation. For many, then, the most urgent questions regarding climate change are now socio-cultural ones, such as: how do people come to hold and act on certain beliefs regarding environmental conditions and processes; how do institutional forms and histories shape and constrain the views and options of various sorts of actors; and what are relationships among fossil fuels, climate change, and the historical geographies and future trajectories of capitalism? Far from being simpler than physical and life science questions, these social science questions introduce entirely new sorts of actors, dynamics, and methodological challenges into this already complex and dynamic domain. This special issue takes up these topics. In this essay, we chart some of the major contours of contemporary social science thinking regarding climate change and introduce the articles in the special issue. We begin by examining work, from political science and scholarship on the commons, that foregrounds questions of sovereignty, territoriality, and cooperation with respect to environmental governance. Then we examine work from neoclassical economics and radical political economy, which frame climate change in terms of externalities, or contradiction and crisis, respectively. Finally, we examine the rapidly proliferating work exploring how individuals think and feel about these issues, emphasizing concepts of risk, communication, and governmentality.     

Near-infrared spectroscopy of primitive asteroid families

We compare 13 near-infrared (0.8-2.4 μm) spectra of two low albedo C complex outer-belt asteroid families: Themis and Veritas. The disruption ages of these two families lie at opposite extremes: 2.5 ± 1.0 Gyr and 8.7 ± 1.7 Myr, respectively. We found striking differences between the two families, which show a range of spectral shapes and slopes. The seven Themis family members (older surfaces) have “red” (positive) slopes in the 1.6-2.4 μm region; in contrast, the six Veritas members (younger surfaces) have significantly “flatter” slopes at these same wavelengths. Moreover, the two families are characterized by different concavity at shorter (1.0-1.5 μm) wavelengths with the Themis group being consistently flat or concave up (smile) and the Veritas group being consistently concave down (frown). Each family contains a broad range of diameters, suggesting our results are not due to comparisons of asteroids of different sizes. The statistically significant clustering of the two spectral groups could be explained by one of the following three possibilities or a combination of them: (1) space weathering effects, (2) differences in original composition, or (3) differences in thermal history perhaps as a result of the difference in parent body sizes. As a result of our analyses, we propose a new method to quantify broad and shallow structures in the spectra of primitive asteroids. We found reasonable matches between the observed asteroids and individual carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Because these meteoritic fits represent fresh surfaces, space weathering is neither necessary nor ruled out as an explanation of spectral differences between families. The six Veritas family near-infrared (NIR) spectra represent the first NIR analysis of this family, thus significantly increasing our understanding of this family over these wavelengths.     

Radioactivity backgrounds in ZEPLIN-III

We examine electron and nuclear recoil backgrounds from radioactivity in the ZEPLIN-III dark matter experiment at Boulby. The rate of low-energy electron recoils in the liquid xenon WIMP target is 0.75 ± 0.05 events/kg/day/keV, which represents a 20-fold improvement over the rate observed during the first science run. Energy and spatial distributions agree with those predicted by component-level Monte Carlo simulations propagating the effects of the radiological contamination measured for materials employed in the experiment. Neutron elastic scattering is predicted to yield 3.05 ± 0.5 nuclear recoils with energy 5-50 keV per year, which translates to an expectation of 0.4 events in a 1 yr dataset in anti-coincidence with the veto detector for realistic signal acceptance. Less obvious background sources are discussed, especially in the context of future experiments. These include contamination of scintillation pulses with Cherenkov light from Compton electrons and from β activity internal to photomultipliers, which can increase the size and lower the apparent time constant of the scintillation response. Another challenge is posed by multiple-scatter γ-rays with one or more vertices in regions that yield no ionisation. If the discrimination power achieved in the first run can be replicated, ZEPLIN-III should reach a sensitivity of ∼1 × 10⁻⁸pb · yr to the scalar WIMP-nucleon elastic cross-section, as originally conceived.     

An evaluation of numerical weather prediction based rainfall forecasts

ABSTRACT

Assessment of forecast precipitation is required before it can be used as input to hydrological models. Using radar observations in southeastern Australia, forecast rainfall from the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) was evaluated for 2010 and 2011. Radar rain intensities were first calibrated to gauge rainfall data from four research rainfall stations at hourly time steps. It is shown that the Australian ACCESS model (ACCESS-A) overestimated rainfall in low precipitation areas and underestimated elevated accumulations in high rainfall areas. The forecast errors were found to be dependent on the rainfall magnitude. Since the cumulative rainfall observations varied across the area and through the year, the relative error (RE) in the forecasts varied considerably with space and time, such that there was no consistent bias across the study area. Moreover, further analysis indicated that both location and magnitude errors were the main sources of forecast uncertainties on hourly accumulations, while magnitude was the dominant error on the daily time scale. Consequently, the precipitation output from ACCESS-A may not be useful for direct application in hydrological modelling, and pre-processing approaches such as bias correction or exceedance probability correction will likely be necessary for application of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

NOTICE: INTERNATIONAL GEOMORPHOLOGY

The focus of this research is the development of a model which explains channel pattern variability in streams. Since channel pattern is commonly regarded as a qualitative phenomenon, the research employs a logistic regression model, which is advocated as an alternative to traditional graphic/discriminant analysis, since the concepts of threshold and instability have very natural expressions in the logistic regression framework. The results demonstrate that channel gradient and mean discharge can effectively explain channel pattern (i.e., whether the channel is single or multithreaded) in an environment where there is a small range of bed material size. Sediment sorting is also shown to be related to channel pattern in the study environment. Models using valley gradient rather than channel gradient are shown to be distinctly inferior, and no advantage is found in using a stream power measure as opposed to separate gradient and discharge measures. [Key Words: fluvial geomorphology, stream channels, channel patterns, models.]     

Considerations for modeling burn probability across landscapes with steep environmental gradients: an example from the Columbia Mountains, Canada

Fire and land management in fire-prone areas can be greatly enhanced by estimating the likelihood of fire at every point on the landscape. In recent years, powerful fire simulation models, combined with an in-depth understanding of an area’s fire regime and fire environment, have allowed forest managers to estimate spatial burn probabilities. This study describes a methodology for selecting input data and model parameters when creating burn probability maps in difficult-to-model areas and reports the results of a case study for a large area of the Columbia Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. In addition to having particularly mountainous topography, the study area is covered by vegetation types that are poorly represented in fire behavior systems, even though these vegetation types have experienced considerable (if highly irregular) fire activity in premodern times (before 1920). Parameterization of the fire environment for simulation modeling was accomplished by combining various types of fire information (e.g., fire history studies, reconstructed fire climatologies), new technologies (high-resolution remotely sensed data, wind flow modeling), and—a must in data-limited areas—ample expert advice. In this study, we made extensive use of personal accounts from experienced fire behavior officers for the creation of model inputs. Despite difficulties in validating outputs of burn probability models, the multisource model-building approach described here provides a conservative, yet informative, means of estimating the likelihood of fire. Due to the data-intensive nature of the modeling and paucity of input data, an argument is made that modelers must focus on the inputs that are the most influential for their study area.     

High‐frequency sediment transport responses on a vegetated foredune

Wind flow and sand transport intensity were measured on the seaward slope of a vegetated foredune during a 16 h storm using an array of sonic anemometers and Wenglor laser particle counters. The foredune had a compound seaward slope with a wave‐cut scarp about 0.5 m high separating the upper vegetated portion from the lower dune ramp, which was bare of vegetation. Wind direction veered from obliquely offshore at the start of the event to obliquely onshore during the storm peak and finally to directly onshore during the final 2 h as wind speed dropped to below threshold. Sand transport was initially inhibited by a brief period of rain at the start of the event but as the surface dried and wind speed increased sand transport was initiated over the entire seaward slope. Transport intensity was quite variable both temporally and spatially on the upper slope as a result of fluctuating wind speed and direction, but overall magnitudes were similar over the whole length. Ten‐minute average transport intensity correlates strongly with mean wind speed measured at the dune crest, and there is also strong correlation between instantaneous wind speed and transport intensity measured at the same locations when the data are smoothed with a 10 s running mean. Transport on the beach for onshore winds is decoupled from that on the seaward slope above the small scarp when the wind angle is highly oblique, but for wind angles <45° from shore perpendicular some sand is transported onto the lower slope. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Larval life span,larval settlement,and early growth of Evechinus chloroticus (Valenciennes)

Development, settlement, and subsequent metamorphosis on several substrata were observed in cultures of Evechinus chloroticus larvae. The period from fertilisation to metamorphosis ranged between 30 and 63 days for larvae collected from spawnings induced at 3 different times. Newly settled sea urchins collected from the field grew about 1 mm per month in aquaria. Correlation of the larval life span with the growth rate of newly settled sea urchins suggested that the earliest spawning could occur was mid‐November. This finding corroborates the results of previous histo‐logical studies of the gonads of adult sea urchins in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand.