On the sensitivity of computed surges to open-boundary formulation

A coarse-grid (resolution of order 7 km) model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine the sensitivity of computed storm-surge elevations and currents to a range of open-boundary conditions. The storm-surge period 1 to 26 March 1994 is used for this comparison, as it is a time of significant wind activity. Also current measurements in the North Channel of the Irish Sea together with coastal elevation measurements are available for model validation. Elevations and currents previously computed with a coarse-grid shelf-wide model can also be incorporated into the open-boundary condition to examine the influence of far-field effects. Initial model calculations with no far-field input show the importance of including shelf-wide effects from either the external shelf model, or by using observations from coastal gauges interpolated along the open boundary of the west-coast model. Provided the west-coast models open boundary is taken sufficiently far away from the region of interest, in this case the Irish Sea, then either a radiation condition or an elevation-specified condition is appropriate provided far-field effects are taken into account. If these are not included, then neither boundary condition is successful. For the radiation condition it is necessary to include both elevations and currents from a far-field model in order to reproduce the surge. In the case of an elevation-specified boundary condition far-field effects can be incorporated in hindcast calculations by including observed sea-level changes. In a storm-surge prediction calculation the radiation condition with a far-field model is required. Calculations show that computed elevations are spatially more coherent than currents, with flows through the western Irish Sea showing the greatest sensitivity to open-boundary formulation during storm events.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate

The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers.     

Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England

This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.     

Discovery of three new pulsars in a 610-MHz pulsar survey with the GMRT

We report on the discovery of three new pulsars in the first blind survey of the north Galactic plane  (45° < l < 135°; | b | < 1°)  with the Giant Meterwave Radio telescope (GMRT) at an intermediate frequency of 610 MHz. The survey covered 106 deg² with a sensitivity of roughly 1 mJy to long-period pulsars (pulsars with period longer than 1 s). The three new pulsars have periods of 318, 933 and 1056 ms. Their timing parameters and flux densities, obtained in follow-up observations with the Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank and the GMRT, are presented. We also report on pulse nulling behaviour in one of the newly discovered pulsars, PSR J2208+5500.     

Solar System Observations with MIRI, The Mid InfraRed Instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope

MIRI is the Mid InfraRed Instrument for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and will provide imaging, coronography and integral field spectroscopy in the range between 4.9 and 28.6  $\upmu \hbox{m}.$ We summarise solar system observations which may be possible with this instrument, drawing on examples of observations made with previous space missions such as IRAS, ISO and Spitzer.     

Sedimentary and faunal events revealed by a revised correlation of post‐glacial Hirnantian (Late Ordovician) strata in the Welsh Basin,UK

The discovery of a previously unrecognized unconformity and of new faunas in the type Llandovery area underpins a revised correlation of Hirnantian strata in mid Wales. This has revealed the sedimentary and faunal events which affected the Lower Palaeozoic Welsh Basin during the global rise in sea level that followed the end‐Ordovician glacial maximum and has allowed their interpretation in the context of local and global influences. In peri‐basinal shelfal settings the onset of post‐glacial deepening is recorded by an unfossiliferous, transgressive shoreface sequence (Cwm Clyd Sandstone and Garth House formations) which rests unconformably on Rawtheyan rocks, deformed during an episode of pre‐Hirnantian tectonism. In the deep water facies of the basin centre, this same sequence boundary is now recognized as the contact between fine‐grained, re‐sedimented mudstones and an underlying regressive sequence of turbidite sandstones and conglomerates; it is at a level lower than previously cited and calls into question the established lithostratigraphy. In younger Hirnantian strata, graptolites associated with the newly recognized Ystradwalter Member (Chwefri Formation) demonstrate that this distal shelf unit correlates with the persculptus graptolite‐bearing Mottled Mudstone Member of the basinal succession. Together these members record an important macrofaunal recolonization of the Welsh Basin and mark a key event in the post‐glacial transgression. Further deepening saw the establishment of a stratified water column and the imposition of anoxic bottom water conditions across the basin floor. These post‐glacial Hirnantian events are consistent with the re‐establishment of connections between a silled Welsh Basin and the open Iapetus Ocean. However, a comparison with other areas suggests that each event records a separate deepening episode within a pulsed glacio‐eustatic transgression, while also reflecting changes in post‐glacial climate and patterns of oceanic circulation and associated biotic flux. British Geological Survey © NERC 2009. All rights reserved.     

Desert knowledge: integrating knowledge and development in arid and semi-arid drylands

Globalisation presents particular challenges for deserts given that their sparse populations, which are amongst the world’s poorest in an absolute economic sense, tend to be remote from major markets and have only a distant, marginal voice in political and policy decision making. Here we are defining deserts as the arid and semi-arid drylands that encompass 70% of Australia and 25% of the world’s land surfaces. The value of the knowledge that local traditions and science have generated about living sustainably in deserts is being promoted and extended through the ‘desert knowledge’ movement in Australia. The Australian research reported here, together with a contribution from Niger that offers a contrast and some lessons for Australia, is largely underpinned by a neopopulist paradigm of development stressing respect for local knowledge, participatory practice and empowerment. Research in partnership with desert Aboriginal groups is contributing to their engagement with new livelihood opportunities. The local knowledge of livestock graziers is also being engaged to support sustainable management of desert water sources and landscapes for multiple values. The research reported here also addresses opportunities and challenges for local norms, identities, knowledge systems, governance and livelihoods from broader scale processes and institutions. In doing so it contributes to a ‘neo-ideographic approach’ wherein desert people might better harness their locality, knowledge and diversity in adaptations that shape their encounters with globalisation. It also points to considerable scope to mature such an approach.     

Observational Tracking of the 2D Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections Between the Sun and 1 AU

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) provides high cadence and high resolution images of the structure and morphology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere. CME directions and propagation speeds have often been estimated through the use of time-elongation maps obtained from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) data. Many of these CMEs have been identified by citizen scientists working within the SolarStormWatch project ( www.solarstormwatch.com ) as they work towards providing robust real-time identification of Earth-directed CMEs. The wide field of view of HI allows scientists to directly observe the two-dimensional (2D) structures, while the relative simplicity of time-elongation analysis means that it can be easily applied to many such events, thereby enabling a much deeper understanding of how CMEs evolve between the Sun and the Earth. For events with certain orientations, both the rear and front edges of the CME can be monitored at varying heliocentric distances (R) between the Sun and 1?AU. Here we take four example events with measurable position angle widths and identified by the citizen scientists. These events were chosen for the clarity of their structure within the HI cameras and their long track lengths in the time-elongation maps. We show a linear dependency with R for the growth of the radial width (W) and the 2D aspect ratio (??) of these CMEs, which are measured out to ???0.7?AU. We estimated the radial width from a linear best fit for the average of the four CMEs. We obtained the relationships W=0.14R+0.04 for the width and ??=2.5R+0.86 for the aspect ratio (W and R in units of?AU).