Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.     

Analysis of the August 7, 1972 white light flare: Light curves and correlation with hard X-rays

Cinematic, photometric observations of the 3B flare of August 7, 1972 are described in detail. The time resolution was 2 s; the spatial resolution was 1–2″. Flare continuum emissivity at 4950 Å and at 5900 Å correlated closely in time with the 60–100 keV non-thermal X-ray burst intensity. The observed peak emissivity was 1.5 × 10¹⁰ erg cm^?2 s^?1 and the total flare energy in the 3900–6900 Å range was ～10³⁰ erg. From the close temporal correspondence and from the small distance (3″) separating the layers where the visible emission and the X-rays arose, it is argued that the hard X-ray source must have had the same silhouette as the white light flare and that the emission patches had cross-sections of 3–5″. There was also a correlation between the location of the most intense visible emissions near sunspots and the intensity and polarization of the 9.4 GHz radio emission. The flare appeared to show at least three distinct particle acceleration phases: one, occurring at a stationary source and associated with proton acceleration gave a very bluish continuum and reached peak intensity at ～ 1522 UT. At 1523 UT, a faint wave spread out at 40 km s^?1 from flare center. The spectrum of the wave was nearly flat in the range 4950–5900 Å. Association of the wave with a slow drift of the microwave emission peak to lower frequencies and with a softening of the X-ray spectrum is interpreted to mean that the particle acceleration process weakened while the region of acceleration expanded. The observations are interpreted with the aid of the flare models of Brown to mean that the same beam of non-thermal electrons that was responsible for the hard X-ray bremsstrahlung also caused the heating of the lower chromosphere that produced the white light flare.     

Aspects of the Fine-Scale Climatology Over Lake Tanganyika as Resolved by a Mesoscale Model

Summary  An hourly averaged climatology at 0.05 ° horizontal resolution over the Lake Tanganyika region was created by making simulations with a mesoscale model (HIRLAM) using a high resolution physiography to represent the surface. Initial and boundary values were interpolated from ECMWF analyses. Climatologies for a typical dry season month (July 1994) and wet season month (March 1994) were created by 7-day segmenting. Model results were validated by utilizing a special coastal observation network. A number of experiments were made with changes to the physiography (mountains/no mountains, lake/no lake). The results reveal local channelling and blocking effects of the near-surface southeasterly trade winds by the high mountain chains in the region of the East African rift. Furthermore, surface winds display regular diurnal cycles in many places, due to slope winds over hills and lake-land-type breezes near the coast. The diurnal coastal winds (defined by the observation network) are reasonably well simulated. Precipitation patterns display the semi-annual march of the ITCZ across the area, plus considerable topographic effects. There is high evaporation from lakes and wetlands during the windy dry season, while evaporation from the moist land surface dominates the rainy season. Received October 15, 1998/Revised September 2, 1999     

Evaluating local population dynamics of the American lobster,Homarus americanus,with trap‐based mark‐recapture methods and seabed mapping

Seabed mapping, spatially referenced trapping, and mark‐recapture methods have all been useful tools in ecological studies of lobsters and other benthic animals. Here we integrate the three methods to evaluate local population dynamics and movements of American lobsters, Homarus americanus, in coastal fishing grounds in Maine, United States. The study was conducted on five study areas of different size, and used two different sampling protocols. At one site (1 km² in area) we used a monthly mark‐recapture sampling interval over a 6‐month period, only tagging a subsample of the catch. At four smaller sites (0.3 km²) we used a shorter‐term approach, sampling at 3–4‐day intervals for a 2‐week duration, tagging the entire catch. Tagging data were analysed with a modified Jolly‐Seber model adapted for continuous sampling to estimate population abundance, gains (immigration), and losses (emigration and mortality). Side‐scan sonar surveys of the seabed combined with diver‐based population surveys, stratified by substrate type, provided an independent comparison to mark‐recapture‐based estimates of abundance over the same areas. Spatial referencing of trap catch also allowed us to relate catch rates and lobster movements directly to seabed features. The longer‐term tagging data on the larger study area provided abundance estimates that were more consistent with the diver observations, and estimates of gains and losses statistically more robust, than those derived from the shorter‐term effort on the smaller sites. The flux of lobsters followed the well known seasonal movements on these fishing grounds, with gains and losses from the larger study area ranging over 1000 individuals per day, and an estimated mid‐summer peak density of >65 000 lobsters per km² (individuals >50 mm carapace length). This approach may lend itself to broader application with the American lobster.     

Large-scale atmospheric circulation forms and their impact on air temperature in Europe and northern Asia

Air temperature variations in Europe and northern Asia are strongly affected by atmospheric circulation. A large-scale study of temperature signals is presented, using a newly available global gridded daily temperature dataset. Major types of European Grosswetterlagen (large-scale weather patterns) and the Russian Vangengeim–Girs classification are compared in their spatial applicability to air temperatures within the past 110 years (1901–2010). The consistency of spatial patterns in the three most recent decades (1981–2010) is investigated, and temperature changes are interpreted against the backdrop of changes in character and frequency of circulation patterns. Both classifications largely explain the observed temperature variability. Spatial patterns are large-scale and strong in both regions, especially in winter. Both spatial extent and signal magnitude show a distinct seasonality with maximum values in winter and minimum ones in summer. Spatial patterns show little changes in Europe; yet the ability to explain temperature variability in northern Asia decreased within 1981–2010. European winter warming corresponds to increased maritime and to decreased continental air mass inflow, superimposed on the general warming trend. Northern Asian winter warming is partly explainable by circulation changes in January and February, but to a lesser extend in December. These results may be used to advance input variables of global climate models and to improve their performance in the European–Northern Asian area.     

Changes in European precipitation seasonality and in drought frequencies revealed by a four-century-long tree-ring isotopic record from Brittany, western France

A new paleoclimatic reconstruction for western France is obtained from tree-ring cellulose stable isotopes. Living trees from Rennes Forest and beams from two ancient buildings in Rennes city have been combined to cover the past four centuries with a gap from 1730 to 1750. The cellulose ¹³C reflects the progressive changes in atmospheric CO₂ isotopic composition. The combined ¹³C and ¹⁸O measurements are used to propose a reconstruction of interannual fluctuations in local summer temperature and water stress. At the decadal time scale, the reconstructed water stress profile exhibits a significant similarity with the historical wine harvest dates, an indicator of warm and dry growth seasons, as well as with the summer central England and central Alps instrumental temperature records and climate model results. Combined with instrumental precipitation records from Paris, these reconstructions suggest a dramatic and widespread change in the seasonality of the precipitation at the beginning of the nineteenth century, with drier winters and wetter summers, which may have contributed to the Alpine glacier decline at the end of the Little Ice Age. The tree-ring isotope records also show a relationship with large-scale North Atlantic circulation changes and the interannual variability is modified between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (7–8 year periodicities) and the seventeenth century (11–14 year periodicities). By classifying 20-year-long subsets of the reconstructed climatic parameters, we estimate that a decadal mean summer warming of 0.8±0.1°C induced extreme dry years to be 2.2±0.7 times more frequent.     

Boundary-layer depth and entrainment zone characterization with a boundary-layer profiler

A technique for determining the height of the convective atmospheric boundary layer (CBL) with a 915 MHz boundary-layer profiler is discussed. The results are compared with CBL heights determined from radiosonde measurements. The profiler provides continuous CBL height measurements with very good time resolution (30 minutes or less), allowing for detailed understanding of the growth and fluctuations of the CBL. In addition, the profiler provides information about the degree of definition of the CBL top and the thickness of the entrainment zone. The measurements discussed were taken during the Rural Oxidants in the Southern Environment II (ROSE II) experiment.     

Magnitude scale structure from filtered broadbandP-wave records

A series of Hokkaido events, recorded by the FBV Broadband Seismograph System at the KHC Seismic Station, is used to study the structure of the earthquake magnitude scale on the basis of maximum velocity amplitudesA _vmax of teleseismicPwaves in different period bands. Amplitude-periodband (APB) diagrams are constructed for each event. According to the shape of the APB diagrams the events investigated can be divided into three types: (a) events with largestA _vmax values in the intermediate period range (periods ofA _vmax from 2.2 to 23 sec), (b) events with largestA _vmax values in the short-period range (periods ofA _vmax from 1 to 2 sec), (c) events exhibiting anomalous APB diagrams. Type (a) events seem to represent the process of wave generation that prevails for shallow earthquakes. Type (b) events approach to explosive-like generation of seismic waves. The nature of the exceptionally occurring type (c) events must be clarified in further investigations. The influence of the type of earthquake on the magnitude values estimated on the basis of standard class A and B (short-period and intermediate-band) seismograms is demonstrated. It appears that for estimating correct values of earthquake magnitudes complementary information on the process of seismic wave generation in the focus is necessary. At teleseismic distances this information can be obtained from either APB diagrams or amplitude spectra ofP waves recorded, e.g., by broadband velocity sensing instruments.