What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

A Contextual Mann‐Kendall Approach for the Assessment of Trend Significance in Image Time Series

One of the most common problems in estimating trends in image time series is the presence of contaminants such as clouds. There are many techniques for estimating robust trends but evaluating the significance of the trends can be difficult due to this increased variance. This article presents a novel approach called the Contextual Mann‐Kendall (CMK) test for assessing significant trends. This test uses the principle of spatial autocorrelation to characterize geographical phenomena, according to which a pixel would not be expected to exhibit a radically different trend from neighboring pixels. The procedure removes serial correlation through a prewhitening process. Then, similar to the logic of the Regionally Averaged Mann‐Kendall (RAMK) test, it combines the information from neighboring pixels while adjusting for cross‐correlation. CMK was compared with the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test in which contextual information was not involved for the mean annual NDVI over 22 years (1982–2003) in West Africa. With the MK test, ～11% of the study area showed significant (p < 0.001) trends which increased to 16% when tested using the CMK test. Thus the CMK test produces a result that makes intuitive sense from a geographical perspective and enhances the ability to detect trends in relatively short time series.     

Urban seismic stations: soil–structure interaction assessment by spectral ratio analyses

In this work we present and discuss the results of ambient seismic noise analyses computed at four sites where seismic stations, managed by the INGV (Italian Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology) and the DPC (Italian Department of Civil Protection), are installed inside buildings. The experiments were performed considering different types of installation: sensor located at the bottom of a school, directly installed on rock (case 1); sensor located at the bottom of a medieval fortress, built on an isolate hill, directly installed on rock (case 2); sensor installed on the foundations of a medieval fortress, built on an isolate hill (case 3); sensor installed on the foundations of a school, built on alluvial deposits (case 4). Since recent works proposed the use of spectral ratio techniques to study the dynamic characterization of buildings, ambient seismic-noise measurements were performed for each site close to the stations (at the base of the structures), at the top of the structures and outside the buildings. In order to check the source of vibrations both horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVNR) and standard spectral ratio (SSR) techniques were applied. For all stations the results from ambient seismic noise were compared to those obtained from earthquakes (HVSR). In order to detect preferential directions of amplification, for each site average HVNRs and HVSRs were computed considering one azimuth for each set of 5°. We obtain different results for different types of installation: in cases 1 and 2, where the sensors are directly installed on rock, the vibrations of the structure do not affect the noise measures performed close to the stations, which show flat HVNR in the whole frequency range: in both cases the eigenfrequency of the building is given by the HVNR calculated from the measures performed at the top of the structure. In cases 3 and 4, where the sensors are installed on the foundations of the considered structures, both the amplification peaks between 5 and 9 Hz (case 3) and between 5.5 and 7 Hz (case 4) include the contribution of the free oscillations of the buildings. In particular, in case 4, HVNRs performed outside building highlight possible soil–structure resonance effects in case of an earthquake.     

Large-scale three-dimensional inversion of EarthScope MT data using the integral equation method

In this paper we apply 3D inversion to MT data collected in the Northwestern United States as a part of the EarthScope project. By the end of 2009 MT data had been collected from 262 stations located throughout Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and most of Montana and Wyoming. We used data from 139 MT stations in this analysis. We developed fully parallelized rigorous 3D MT inversion software based on the integral equation method with variable background conductivity. We also implemented a receiver footprint approach which considerably reduced the computational resources needed to invert the large volumes of data covering vast areas. The data set used in the inversion was obtained through the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). The inversion domain was divided into 2.7 M cells. The inverted electrical conductivity distribution agrees reasonably well with geological features of the region.     

On magma fragmentation by conduit shear stress: Evidence from the Kos Plateau Tuff,Aegean Volcanic Arc

Large silicic explosive eruptions are the most catastrophic volcanic events. Yet, the intratelluric mechanisms underlying are not fully understood. Here we report a field and laboratory study of the Kos Plateau Tuff (KPT, 161 ka, Aegean Volcanic Arc), which provides an excellent geological example of conduit processes that control magma vesiculation and fragmentation during intermediate- to large-scale caldera-forming eruptions. A prominent feature of the KPT is the occurrence of quite unusual platy-shaped tube pumice clasts in pyroclastic fall and current deposits from the early eruption phases preceding caldera collapse. On macroscopic and SEM observations, flat clast faces are elongated parallel to tube vesicles, while transverse surfaces often occur at ~ 45° to vesicle elongation. This peculiar pumice texture provides evidence of high shear stresses related to strong velocity gradients normal to conduit walls, which induced vesiculation and fragmentation of the ascending magma. Either an increasing mass discharge rate without adequate enlargement of a narrow central feeder conduit or a developing fissure-like feeder system related to incipient caldera collapse provided suitable conditions for the generation of plate tube pumice within magma volumes under high shear during the pre-climactic KPT eruption phases. This mechanism implies that the closer to the conduit walls (where the stronger are the velocity gradients) the larger was the proportion of plate vs. conventional (lensoid) juvenile fragments in the ascending gas–pyroclast mixture. Consequently, plate pumice clasts were mainly entrained in the outer portions of the jet and convecting regions of a sustained, Plinian-type, eruption column, as well as in occasional lateral blast currents generated at the vent. As a whole, plate pumice clasts in the peripheral portions of the column were transported at lower altitudes and deposited by fallout or partial collapse closer to the vent relative to lensoid ones that dominated in the inner column portions. The plate tube pumice proportion decreased abruptly up to disappearance during the emplacement of the main pyroclastic currents and lithic-rich breccias related to extensive caldera collapse at the eruption climax, as a consequence of an overall widening of the magma feeder system through the opening of multiple conduits and eruptive vents, along with fissure erosion, concomitant to the disruption of the collapsing block.     

Sediment transport in high‐speed flows over a fixed bed: 2. Particle impacts and abrasion prediction

Single bed load particle impacts were experimentally investigated in supercritical open channel flow over a fixed planar bed of low relative roughness height simulating high‐gradient non‐alluvial mountain streams as well as hydraulic structures. Particle impact characteristics (impact velocity, impact angle, Stokes number, restitution and dynamic friction coefficients) were determined for a wide range of hydraulic parameters and particle properties. Particle impact velocity scaled with the particle velocity, and the vertical particle impact velocity increased with excess transport stage. Particle impact and rebound angles were low and decreased with transport stage. Analysis of the particle impacts with the bed revealed almost no viscous damping effects with high normal restitution coefficients exceeding unity. The normal and resultant Stokes numbers were high and above critical thresholds for viscous damping. These results are attributed to the coherent turbulent structures near the wall region, i.e. bursting motion with ejection and sweep events responsible for turbulence generation and particle transport. The tangential restitution coefficients were slightly below unity and the dynamic friction coefficients were lower than for alluvial bed data, revealing that only a small amount of horizontal energy was transferred to the bed. The abrasion prediction model formed by Sklar and Dietrich in 2004 was revised based on the new equations on vertical impact velocity and hop length covering various bed configurations. The abrasion coefficient k_v was found to be vary around k_v ~ 10⁵ for hard materials (tensile strength f_t > 1 MPa), one order of magnitude lower than the value assumed so far for Sklar and Dietrich's model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of precipitation and river runoff in a coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic

A coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic is developed in order to study the effects of precipitation and river runoff on sea ice. A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is coupled to an ocean general circulation model which includes a turbulent closure scheme for vertical mixing. The model is forced by interannually varying atmospheric temperature and pressure data from 1980–1989, and spatially varying mean monthly precipitation and river runoffs. Salinity and fresh water fluxes to the ocean from ice growth, snow melt, rain, and runoffs are computed, with no artificial constraints on the ocean salinity. The modeled ice thickness is similar to the observed pattern, with the thickest ice remaining against the Canadian Archipelago throughout the year. The modeled ice drift reproduces the Beaufort gyre and Transpolar drift exiting through Fram Strait. The stable arctic halocline produced by the vertical mixing scheme isolates the surface from the Atlantic layer and reduces the vertical fluxes of heat and salinity. A sensitivity experiment with zero precipitation results in rapidly decreasing ice thickness, in response to greater ocean heat flux from a weakening of the halocline, while an experiment with doubled precipitation results in a smaller increase in ice thickness. A zero-runoff experiment results in a slower decrease in ice thickness than the zero-precipitation case, due to the decadal time scale of the transport of runoff in the model. The results suggest that decadal trends in both arctic precipitation and river runoffs, caused either by anthropogenic or natural climatic change, have the potential to exert broad-scale impacts on the arctic sea ice regime. Received: 6 February 1996 / Accepted: 4 April 1996     

A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part II: Mesoscale Modelling

The importance of soil moisture inputs and improved model physics in the prediction of the daytime boundary-layer structure during the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997 (SGP97) is investigated using the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model MM5. This is Part II of a two-part study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed boundary-layer structure. Part I focuses on observations and utilizes a simple model while Part II uses observations and MM5 modelling. Soil moisture inputs tested include a lookup table based on soil type and season, output from an offline land-surface model (LSM) forced by atmospheric observations, and high-resolution ( 800 m) airborne microwave remotely sensed data. Model physics improvements are investigated by comparing an LSM directly coupled with the MM5 to a simpler force-restore method at the surface. The scale of land surface heterogeneities is compared to the scale of their effects on boundary-layer structure.The use of more detailed soil moisture fields allowed the MM5 to better represent the large-scale (hundreds of km) and small-scale (tens of km) horizontal gradients in surface-layer weather and, to a lesser degree, the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, which was evaluated against observations measured by differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The benefits of coupling an LSM to the MM5 were not readily evident in this summertime case, with the model having particular difficulty simulating the timing of maximum surface fluxes while underestimating the depth of the mixed layer.     

Thermodynamic controls on element partitioning between titanomagnetite and andesitic–dacitic silicate melts

Titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of Mg, Mn, Al, Ti, Sc, V, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Zr, Nb, Mo, Hf and Ta was investigated experimentally as a function of oxygen fugacity (fO₂) and temperature (T) in an andesitic–dacitic bulk-chemical compositional range. In these bulk systems, at constant T, there are strong increases in the titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of the divalent cations (Mg²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺) and Cu²⁺/Cu⁺ with increasing fO₂ between 0.2 and 3.7 log units above the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer. This is attributed to a coupling between magnetite crystallisation and melt composition. Although melt structure has been invoked to explain the patterns of mineral–melt partitioning of divalent cations, a more rigorous justification of magnetite–melt partitioning can be derived from thermodynamic principles, which accounts for much of the supposed influence ascribed to melt structure. The presence of magnetite-rich spinel in equilibrium with melt over a range of fO₂ implies a reciprocal relationship between a(Fe²⁺O) and a(Fe³⁺O_1.5) in the melt. We show that this relationship accounts for the observed dependence of titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations with fO₂ in magnetite-rich spinel. As a result of this, titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations is indirectly sensitive to changes in fO₂ in silicic, but less so in mafic bulk systems.     

Evaluation of significant sources influencing the variation of physico-chemical parameters in Port Blair Bay,South Andaman,India by using multivariate statistics

Port Blair is the capital city of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the union territory of India. More than 50% of the population of these islands lives around Port Blair Bay. Therefore the anthropogenic effects in the bay water were studied for monitoring purpose from seven stations. Physico-chemical parameters of seawater were analyzed in samples collected once in every 3 months for 2 years from seven sampling stations located in Port Blair Bay, South Andaman Island to evaluate the spatial and tidal variation. Cluster analysis and factor analysis were applied to the experimental data in an attempt to understand the sources of variation of physico-chemical parameters. In cluster analysis, the stations Junglighat Bay and Phoenix Bay having high anthropogenic influence formed a separate group. The factors obtained from factor analysis indicated that the parameters responsible for physico-chemical variations are mainly related to land run-off, sewage outfall and tidal flow.