RHESSI Microflares: II. Implications for Loop Structure and Evolution

We present simple analytic models which predict the peak X-ray emission measure and temperature attained in flares in which the chromospheric evaporation process takes place either in a single ‘monolithic’ loop or in a loop consisting of several filaments that are created successively as the energy release process proceeds in time. As possible mechanisms driving chromospheric evaporation we consider both classical heat conduction from the loop top and non-thermal electron beams. The model predictions are tested for a set of 18 well studied RHESSI microflares. The results suggest beam driven evaporation in filamented loops as being capable of accounting for the observed emission measures and temperatures though there are issues with the very high beam densities needed. On the other hand, estimates of the emission measures achieved by conductive evaporation which are derived by using the Rosner – Tucker – Vaiana (RTV) scaling law are much larger than the observed ones. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

A Bayesian approach to inverse modelling of stratigraphy, part 2: Validation tests

A novel inverse modelling method is applied to the problem of constraining the environmental parameters (e.g. relative sea level, sediment supply) that control stratigraphic architecture. This technique links forward modelling of shallow-marine wave/storm-dominated stratigraphy to a combination of inverse methods formulated in a Bayesian framework. We present a number of examples in which relative sea-level and sediment-supply curves were inferred from synthetic vertical successions of grain size (e.g. wells) and synthetic thickness curves (e.g. seismically derived isopachs) extracted from a forward model simulation. These examples represent different scenarios that are designed to test the impact of data distribution, quantity and quality on the uncertainty of the inferred parameters. The inverse modelling approach successfully reproduces the gross stratigraphic architectures and relative sea level and sediment-supply histories of the synthetic forward model simulation, within the constraints of the modelled data quality. The relative importance of the forcing parameters can be evaluated by their sensitivity and impact on the inverted data. Of equal importance, the inverse results allow complete characterisation of the uncertainties inherent to the stratigraphic modelling tool and to the data quality, quantity and distribution. The numerical scheme also successfully deals with the problem of non-uniqueness of the solution of the inverse problem. These preliminary results suggest that the inverse method is a powerful tool in constraining stratigraphic architecture for hydrocarbon reservoir characterisation and modelling, and it may ultimately provide a process-based geological complement to standard geostatistical tools.     

Impact of Gas Adsorption Induced Coal Matrix Damage on the Evolution of Coal Permeability

It has been widely reported that coal permeability can change from reduction to enhancement due to gas adsorption even under the constant effective stress condition, which is apparently inconsistent with the classic theoretical solutions. This study addresses this inconsistency through explicit simulations of the dynamic interactions between coal matrix swelling/shrinking induced damage and fracture aperture alteration, and translations of these interactions to permeability evolution under the constant effective stress condition. We develop a coupled coal–gas interaction model that incorporates the material heterogeneity and damage evolution of coal, which allows us to couple the progressive development of damage zone with gas adsorption processes within the coal matrix. For the case of constant effective stress, coal permeability changes from reduction to enhancement while the damage zone within the coal matrix develops from the fracture wall to further inside the matrix. As the peak Langmuir strain is approached, the decrease of permeability halts and permeability increases with pressure. The transition of permeability reduction to permeability enhancement during gas adsorption, which may be closely related to the damage zone development in coal matrix, is controlled by coal heterogeneity, external boundary condition, and adsorption-induced swelling.     

Transport and retention of suspended particulate matter and bacteria in the Humber-Ouse Estuary, United Kingdom, and their relationship to hypoxia and anoxia

Data are presented on dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and their relationship to salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), concentrations, and the turbidity maximum in the Humber-Ouse Estuary, United Kingdom, during summer 1995. Measurements in the upper Humber during March 1995 showed DO in the range 82% to 87% of saturation. Suspended particulate matter concentrations were <5000 mg l^?1 and salinity was in the range 0.5 to 12. In contrast, a pronounced DO sag occurred in the upper reaches of the Ouse during medium and spring tide, summer conditions. The DO minimum was essentially an anoxic level and was associated with the location of the turbidity maximum, at salinities between about 0.4 and 1.5. SPM concentrations at 1 m beneath the surface reached 25,000 mg l^?1 in the turbidity maximum, between about 20 km and 40 km from the tidal limit. Suspended particulate matter concentrations were much lower at neap tides, although dense suspensions of SPM (>60,000 mg l^?1) occurred within 1 m of the bed in the turbidity maximum region. A spring-neap record showed a dramatic and tidally controlled decrease in DO at very low salinities as the tides progressed from neaps to springs. An anchor station located down-channel of the turbidity maximum showed that about 95% of the variance in DO, which varied from 28% at low-water slack to 67% at high-water slack, could be explained in terms of salinity variation. At the up-channel margins of the turbidity maximum, DO increased from zero (anoxia) near high water to 60% near low water slack, in contrast to the behavior down-channel of the turbidity maximum. About 82% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variations alone. Only 43% of the DO variance could be explained in terms of SPM alone. Up-channel of the turbidity maximum, SPM concentrations were relatively low (<3000 mg l^?1) and DO levels varied from 48% of saturation near high water to 83% near low water slack. About 76% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variations alone. Within the turbidity maximum region, DO varied from <2% saturation on the early flood and late ebb and maximized around 7% at high water slack. About 63% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variation alone. This increased to 70% when suspended particulate matter was taken into account. Only 29% of the DO variance could be explained in terms of suspended particulate matter alone. Because bacteria were likely to have been the cause of the observed reduction in DO, the numbers of bacteria, both free-living and attached to particles, were measured in the turbidity maximum region. Numbers of free-living bacteria were low and most of the bacteria were attached to sediment particles. There was a linear correlation between total bacterial number and suspended particulate matter concentration, suggesting that the strong DO demand was exerted locally as a result of bacterial activity associated with increased suspended particulate matter concentrations. An order of magnitude analysis of DO consumption within the Ouse’s turbidity maximum, based on the premise that DO depletion was directly related to suspended particulate matter concentrations and that DO addition was due to reaeration, indicates that complete deoxygenation could have occurred with an oxygen depletion rate of ～0.01 mg DO h^?1/g suspended particulate matter during the residence time of waters within the turbidity maximum (～7 d). This rate was sufficiently fast that anoxic to aerobic conditions were able to develop a spring-neap periodicity within the turbidity maximum, but too slow to generate substantial intratidal fluctuations in DO. This is in accordance with the observations, which show that relatively little of the intratidal variance in DO could be explained in terms of suspended particulate matter fluctuations, whereas most of the variance could be explained in terms of salinity, which behaved as a surrogate measure for the proximity of the turbidity maximum.     

Observations of the structure and evolution of solar flares with a soft X-ray telescope

132 soft X-ray flare events have been observed with The Aerospace Corporation/Marshall Space Flight Center S-056 X-ray telescope that was part of the ATM complement of instruments aboard Skylab. Analyses of these data are reported in this paper. The observations are summarized and a detailed discussion of the X-ray flare structures is presented. The data indicated that soft X-rays emitted by a flare come primarily from an intense well-defined core surrounded by a region of fainter, more diffuse emission. Loop structures are found to constitute a fundamental characteristic of flare cores and arcades of loops are found to play a more important role in the flare phenomena than previously thought. Size distributions of these core features are presented and a classification scheme describing the brightest flare X-ray features is proposed. The data show no correlations between the size of core features and: (1) the peak X-ray intensity, as indicated by detectors on the SOLRAD satellite; (2) the rise time of the X-ray flare event, or (3) the presence of a nonthermal X-ray component. An analysis of flare evolution indicates evidence for preliminary heating and energy release prior to the main phase of the flare. Core features are found to be remarkably stable and retain their shape throughout a flare. Most changes in the overall configuration seem to be the result of the appearance, disappearance or change in brightness of individual features, rather than the restructuring or re-orientation of these features. Brief comparisons with several theories are presented.     

Effects of compressibility on driving zonal flow in gas giants

The banded structures observed on the surfaces of the gas giants are associated with strong zonal winds alternating in direction with latitude. We use three-dimensional numerical simulations of compressible convection in the anelastic approximation to explore the properties of zonal winds in rapidly rotating spherical shells. Since the model is restricted to the electrically insulating outer envelope, we therefore neglect magnetic effects.A systematic parametric study for various density scaleheights and Rayleigh numbers allows to explore the dependence of convection and zonal jets on these parameters and to derive scaling laws.While the density stratification affects the local flow amplitude and the convective scales, global quantities and zonal jets properties remain fairly independent of the density stratification. The zonal jets are maintained by Reynolds stresses, which rely on the correlation between zonal and cylindrically radial flow components. The gradual loss of this correlation with increasing supercriticality hampers all our simulations and explains why the additional compressional source of vorticity hardly affects zonal flows.All these common features may explain why previous Boussinesq models were already successful in reproducing the morphology of zonal jets in gas giants.     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

Decorrelated GRACE time-variable gravity solutions by GFZ,and their validation using a hydrological model

We have analyzed recent gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) RL04 monthly gravity solutions, using a new decorrelating post-processing approach. We find very good agreement with mass anomalies derived from a global hydrological model. The post-processed GRACE solutions exhibit only little amplitude damping and an almost negligible phase shift and period distortion for relevant hydrological basins. Furthermore, these post-processed GRACE solutions have been inspected in terms of data fit with respect to the original inter-satellite ranging and to SLR and GPS observations. This kind of comparison is new. We find variations of the data fit due to solution post-processing only within very narrow limits. This confirms our suspicion that GRACE data do not firmly ‘pinpoint’ the standard unconstrained solutions. Regarding the original Kusche (J Geod 81:733–749, 2007) decorrelation and smoothing method, a simplified (order-convolution) approach has been developed. This simplified approach allows to realize a higher resolution—as necessary, e.g., for generating computed GRACE observations—and needs far less coefficients to be stored.