A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the influence of wave periods

Large-scale physical model tests were performed to quantify the effects of the wave period on dune erosion. Attention was focussed on 2D cross-shore effects in a situation with sandy dunes and extreme water levels and wave conditions. Besides profile measurements, detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near near-shore area. It was concluded that a longer wave period leads to a larger dune erosion volume and to a larger landward retreat of the dune face. Tests with double-peaked wave spectra showed that the influence of the spectral shape on dune erosion was best represented by the T_m − 1,0 spectral mean wave period, better than the peak wave period, T_p. The effect of the wave period on dune erosion was implemented in a dune erosion prediction method that estimates erosion volumes during normative storm conditions for the Dutch coast. More details of the measurements and additional analyses of physical processes are described in an accompanying paper by Van Thiel de Vries et al. [Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., van Gent, M.R.A., Reniers, A.J.H.M. and Walstra, D.J.R., submitted for publication. Analysis of dune erosion processes in large scale flume experiments, In this volume of Coastal Engineering.].     

Morphodynamic response of a two-barred beach to a shoreface nourishment

The response to a shoreface nourishment of the two-bar system at Noordwijk (the Netherlands) is analyzed based on a daily data set of time-exposure video images collected during about 6 years, complemented with topographic and bathymetric surveys. The 1.7 Mm³ nourishment, implemented as a 3 km alongshore bump seaward of the outer bar, migrated more than 300 m onshore in 4 years before losing its integrity. Furthermore, the nourishment interrupted the autonomous seaward migration of both bars for the entire duration of the study period and, allaying earlier fears, did not intensify the three-dimensional patterns in the bars, such as the crescentic plan-shape and rip channels. The nourishment did result in clear head effects on both flanks, with the bar becoming discontinuous and the flank section decaying or becoming attached to an offshore-located bar, while the section of bar landward of the nourishment became attached to a landward-located bar. This sequence of morphologies is known as bar switching. Each switching episode took almost one year to complete and can therefore not be ascribed to individual wave events. We suspect that shoreface nourishments enhance the possibility of bar switching by creating alongshore variability in the position and depth of the outer bar and in its cross-shore migration rate and direction. The Noordwijk nourishment did not influence the shoreline position as its trend did not undergo distinctive variations after 1998. Differences in the response of the Noordwijk sandbars to the shoreface nourishment compared with other Dutch nourishments are attributed to the location and size (volume per unit length) of the nourishment with respect to the sandbars and to the median grain size of the nourished material.     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Seasonal changes in submarine groundwater discharge to coastal salt ponds estimated using Ra and Ra as tracers

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) to coastal southern Rhode Island was estimated from measurements of the naturally-occurring radioisotopes ²²⁶Ra (t_1/2 = 1600 y) and ²²⁸Ra (t_1/2 = 5.75 y). Surface water and porewater samples were collected quarterly in Winnapaug, Quonochontaug, Ninigret, Green Hill, and Pt. Judith–Potter Ponds, as well as nearly monthly in the surface water of Rhode Island Sound, from January 2002 to August 2003; additional porewater samples were collected in August 2005. Surface water activities ranged from 12–83 dpm 100 L^− 1 (60 dpm = 1 Bq) and 21–256 dpm 100 L^− 1 for ²²⁶Ra and ²²⁸Ra, respectively. Porewater ²²⁶Ra activities ranged from 16–736 dpm 100 L^− 1 (2002–2003) and 95–815 dpm 100 L^− 1 (2005), while porewater ²²⁸Ra activities ranged from 23–1265 dpm 100 L^− 1. Combining these data with a simple box model provided average ²²⁶Ra-based submarine groundwater fluxes ranging from 11–159 L m^− 2 d^− 1 and average ²²⁸Ra-derived fluxes of 15–259 L m^− 2 d^− 1. Seasonal changes in Ra-derived SGD were apparent in all ponds as well as between ponds, with SGD values of 30–472 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Winnapaug Pond), 6–20 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Quonochontaug Pond), 36–273 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Ninigret Pond), 29–76 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Green Hill Pond), and 19–83 L m^− 2 d^− 1 (Pt. Judith–Potter Pond). These Ra-derived fluxes are up to two orders of magnitude higher than results predicted by a numerical model of groundwater flow, estimates of aquifer recharge for the study period, and values published in previous Ra-based SGD studies in Rhode Island. This disparity may result from differences in the type of flow (recirculated seawater versus fresh groundwater) determined using each technique, as well as variability in porewater Ra activity.     

Uncertainties associated with Ra and Ra measurements in water via a Delayed Coincidence Counter (RaDeCC)

The short-lived radium isotopes, ²²³Ra (T_1/2 = 11.4 days) and ²²⁴Ra (T_1/2 = 3.66 days), have been successfully used as tracers of several environmental processes, e.g., submarine groundwater discharge, coastal mixing processes, and water residence times. In this paper, the uncertainties associated with ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra measurements using a Radium Delayed Coincidence Counter are determined on a detailed error propagation basis with a confidence interval of 1σ. From the data analyses of several groups of coastal water samples, the calculated relative uncertainties averaged 12% for the ²²³Ra and 7% for the ²²⁴Ra. These uncertainties can decrease for radium-enriched groundwater samples although asymptotic limits have been found at 7% relative uncertainty for ²²³Ra and 4% for ²²⁴Ra. In this paper, the influence of sampling and measurement parameters on the final radium uncertainties is evaluated in order to provide guidance to optimize these factors and obtain more reliable results.     

Trace elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) concentrations in deep Gulf of Mexico sediments

The concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and trace elements were determined for surface (top 2 cm) sediment samples collected during the deep Gulf of Mexico benthos (DGoMB) study .These elements and compounds are known to be toxic to organisms at high concentrations and may affect biological communities. There is no indication of major anthropogenic input of the elements Be, Co, Cr, Fe, Si, Tl, V, K, Mg, Ca, Sr and Zn, based on normalization to Al. The concentrations of these metals in the sediment are a function of the relative amounts of trace-metal-rich Mississippi River-derived silicate material and trace-metal-poor plankton-derived carbonate. This is not true for the elements Ba, Ni, Pb, Cd, As, Cu and Mn, whose concentrations show considerable scatter when normalized to Al and a general enrichment. On a normalized basis, Mn is enriched 5–10 fold, Cu and Ni 2–3 fold and Pb 2 fold over Mississippi River-derived material. These enrichments are likely the result of remobilization of metals from depths in the sediment column where reducing conditions exist. The Ba concentrations at selected sites are higher than those of average clay-rich sediments, but are typical of sediments from near oil well platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the case of Ba, it seems likely that the enrichments, as high as a factor of 10, are due to disposal of oil well drilling mud. The Ba-enriched samples are from the three shallowest water sites in the Mississippi Trough (sites MT1, 2 and 3) and from site C1 and WC5. All are in an area of intense petroleum exploration and development. PAH concentrations are also elevated at MT1, MT3 and C1. The total PAH concentration ranged from not detected (ND) to 1033 ng/g with a mean of 140 ng/g. Even at the sites most enriched in PAHs and trace elements, the concentrations are not at the levels expected to adversely affect the biota. However, these predicted non-effects are based on research using mostly near-shore estuarine species, not on the indigenous species at the sampling sites.