Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

Phase relations in fluorine-bearing granite and nepheline syenite systems at 800°C and 1 kbar

The data obtained on the sodic part of the SiO₂-Al₂O₃-Na₂O-K₂O system with F at 800°C and 1 kbar provide the basis for constructing a phase diagram showing the region of an aluminosilicate melt. In this system, oxide and fluoride phases are identified that control the stability field of the melt and the solubility of F. Liquid immiscibility was detected in aluminous nepheline-and quartz-normative Li-bearing compositions (the latter compositions are characterized by a wider immiscibility field). Solubility of F was determined in an aluminosilicate melt saturated with respect to F, i.e., coexisting with phases rich in this element. The F concentrations in the glasses range from 2 to 20 wt %. The quartz-normative glasses are poorer in F (no more than 5 wt % F) than the nepheline-normative glasses (which contain mostly 5–10 wt % F). The maximum F concentrations (> 10 wt %) in the phase diagram lie on both sides of the albite composition point in the region of ultragpaitic nepheline-normative melts and in the region of normal syenite melts. Changes in the phase relations when Na is substituted for K were determined in the quartz-normative silicate melt.     

Elucidation of the Alum Shale kerogen structure using a multi-disciplinary approach

The significance and validity of integrating data obtained from a variety of analytical techniques to understand, elucidate and model kerogen's complex chemical structure is reported here using degradative (open and closed system pyrolysis, chemical oxidation), non-degradative (¹³C CP/MAS NMR) and optical (incident white light and blue light) methods. Seven Cambrian Alum Shale samples, ranging in maturity from immature to post-mature with respect to petroleum generation, were studied and were chosen for their simple geological history, uniform organic matter type and high organic carbon content. The Alum Shale kerogens, which primarily consist of algal organic matter, liberate low molecular weight gaseous and aromatic compounds on pyrolysis and give mostly branched dicarboxylic acids on chemical oxidation. ¹³C NMR spectroscopy shows that the Alum Shale kerogens are anomalously rich in oxygen-bearing functional groups (such as C = O, ArCO, CHO, CH_xO), most of which apparently remain intact within the kerogen macro-molecule (KMM) through the diagenetic and catagenetic stages. Fragments released by different degradative techniques are quantified and the aromaticity (f_a), O/C and relative proportions of various carbon types estimated by ¹³C NMR. A synthesis of these data has allowed us to better understand the chemistry of the Alum Shale kerogen.     

Numerical simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics associated with the severe thunderstorm on April 5, 2015 at Kushtia and Jhenaidah

The paper deals with the study of the physical and dynamical characteristics of a severe thunderstorm, which had occurred on April 5, 2015, at about 2100 UTC in the southwestern Bangladesh with location around 23.3–23.7N and 89.0–89.4E within the upazilas (sub-districts) of Kumarkhali and Shailkupa under the districts of Kushtia and Jhenaidah, respectively. The thunderstorm was associated with numerous hails of large size. More than 5000 birds which used to live in the bird sanctuary at Shailkupa and 22,011 birds in Chhaglapara Bird Sanctuary of Kumarkhali died as they were hit by the hails. Large hails also damaged crops, houses and forests over the thunderstorm hit areas. The evolution of the thunderstorm is studied by the WRF model, which is initialized using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis data of 0000 UTC of April 5, 2015. The simulated results provide a basis to study the physical and dynamical characteristics of the thunderstorm, which are generally not identified by the meteorological observations which are too sparse. The model has captured a micro-low over Kumarkhali and its neighborhood, which favored the occurrence of the severe thunderstorm. The model simulated rainfall is about 26 mm near the place of occurrence, which matches well with the area where the reflectivity of hydrometeor is maximum. The convective available potential energy is found to be 1600 J kg^?1 at 1730 UTC near the place of occurrence of the thunderstorm; this indicates high atmospheric instability over the thunderstorm location for the formation of the thunderstorm. The vertical velocity, convergence, cloud water mixing ratio and the ice water mixing ratio and their vertical extensions are found to be satisfactory and responsible for the occurrence of large hails associated with the thunderstorm.     

A review of definitions of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Most workers regard the Main Central Thrust (MCT) as one of the key high strain zones in the Himalaya because it accommodated at least 90 km of...     

Interpretation of epikarstic cave drip water recession curves: a case study from Velika Pasica Cave,central Slovenia

ABSTRACT

Recession curves are widely used in hydrological studies and projects, such as in rivers, streams or springs. However, no cave drip water has been analysed with recession curves. In this paper, four cave drips were monitored in the Velika Pasica Cave, in order to discover the water flow and storage properties of the epikarst. Various methods were applied in the recession analysis, combining the hydrological characteristics of the four drips: for the slow water in the epikarst, the matching strip method was the identified as the appropriate model for the drip water recession analysis. According to the recession coefficient k, the water flow in the epikarst was divided into fast flow, intermediate flow and slow flow. The volume of water retained in the reservoir (the epikarst storage) could be presented as a function of its specific recession coefficient.

EDITOR D.Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR X. Chen     

Le Pico de Orizaba (Mexique): Structure et evolution d’un grand volcan andesitique complexe

Volcan Pico de Orizaba, which marks the eastern end of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is one of the largest andesitic composite volcanoes in America. It is located above a series of crustal distensive faults making the boundary of the Coast Plains of the Gulf of Mexico from theAltiplano. For this reason, the volcano shows an asymmetry: from the west, its elevation is about 3,000 m whereas on the eastern side it reaches 4,000 to 4,500 m from its base. The Pico de Orizaba is composed of a primitive stratovolcano raised by a recent summit cone. It has been built by three very distinct volcanic and magmatic phases.

1. The first one, probably discontinuous effusive activity, lasted more than one million years. It is mainly composed of two pyroxenes-andesites with scarce associated basaltic and dacitic lava-flows. Amphibole is an accessory mineral in most differentiated lavas. On the eastern flank, numerous massive and autobrecciated lava-flows pass outward into thick conglomeratic formations. This effusive phase has built a primitive central volcano and a parasitic cone: the Sierra Negra.
2. The second phase is of short duration — about 100,000 years or less — in comparison with the first period. It seems that this period began with the formation of a caldera followed by the extrusion of amphibole dacite domes and the overflow of viscous silica-rich (andesite to dacite) lava flows on the northern flank. An intense explosive activity develops:pelean nuées ardentes are associated with extrusion of the domes; numerous plinian eruptions leading to widespread dacitic pumiceous air-falls are produced by both the central and the adventive volcanoes. This sequence of events is interpreted as the progressive emptying of a superficial chamber containing differenciated magma. A rhyolite flow erupted during this phase.
3. The age of the recent phase is better defined. It started 13,000 years B.P. with the eruption of a dacitic ash-flow containing pumice and scoria-bombs. This was such an intense event that products were found 30 km S.E. of the summit, erasing the top of the former volcano and creating a large crater (4–5 km wide). The present cone, of 1,400–1,500 m elevation, grew in this crater. During a period of 7,000 to 8,000 years, the new stratovolcano experienced various important pyroclastic eruptions with a cycle of the order of 1,000 to 1,500 years. The pyroclastic flows (ash, pumice, and bombs) associated with air-fall deposits are of Saint-Vincent type. They present an heterogeneous dacitic and andesitic magma. The dacitic component is similar to previous differenciated materials. On the other hand, the andesitic magma appears somewhat similar to lava-flows from morphologically young cones erupted outside the central vent system. This eruptive cycle can be interpreted as the result of reoccurring injections of deep basic magma within the crustal chamber. For the last 5,000 years the activity of the modern Pico de Orizaba has again been essentially effusive (andesites) with periodic plinian eruptions.

     

Zum Umweltverhalten von Fluortensiden. Teil 3: Reinigung der industriellen Abwässer

Four fluorotensides which are used mainly industrially are investigated with respect to their removability from waters. Since, in general, fluorotensides are difficult to remove or not at all removable biochemically, the effects of chemical or physicochemical treatment processes are tested. As the results represented in pictures and tables show, different modes of behaviour can be recognized with respect to the respective purification effect for the investigated fluorotensides, partly among them. Flocculation with Al- and Fe-salts as well as chlorination and ozonization show only partial effects. But all the investigated fluorotensides can be adsorptively eliminated by means of powder or granular active charcoal and adsorbent resin Wofatit EA₆₀.     

Comparison of trends in stream water quality

A method is described for assessing the strength of evidence for differences in the trends in chemical concentrations in stream water between catchments. A smoothing spline technique is used to model changes in water quality as a result of changes in flow rates, seasonal effects and an underlying trend. The method involves fitting the model twice, once with the underlying trends constrained to be identical for each river and once with the trends unconstrained. Statistical properties are assessed by simulation methods that allow for the autocorrelation in the residuals from the unconstrained fit. The method is applied to data from two streams in the Balquhidder catchments in the Highlands of Scotland and to data from the Dee, Don and Ythan rivers in the north‐east of Scotland. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.