Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

The Operational Geography of Great Britain*

This article examines the operational geography of Great Britain in terms of six components: domestic context; student quality, preparation, and training; professional work environment; publications and productivity; conveniences and facilities; and employment. The goal of operational geography is to provide the basis for blending the strengths of different systems of geography which have much to offer one another. This article uses personal experiences and survey data to examine the strengths and weaknesses in Britain as compared to the United States. It finds that Britain has strong national support, a greater emphasis on geographic education, high-quality but narrowly trained undergraduates, and a productive academic faculty. The United States enjoys a more effective graduate curriculum, better funding, and more opportunity for personal advancement.     

Accretion tectonics and crustal structure in Alaska

The entire width of the North American Cordillera in Alaska is made up of “suspect terranes”. Pre-Late Cretaceous paleogeography is poorly constrained and the ultimate origins of the many fragments which make up the state are unclear. The Prince William and Chugach terranes accreted since Late Cretaceous time and represent the collapse of much of the northeast Pacific Ocean swept into what today is southern Alaska. Greater Wrangellia, a composite terrane now dispersed into fragments scattered from Idaho to southern Alaska, apparently accreted into Alaska in Late Cretaceous time crushing an enormous deep-marine flysch basin on its inboard side. Most of interior eastern Alaska is the Yukon Tanana terrane, a very large entirely fault-bounded metamorphic-plutonic assemblage covering thousands of square kilometers in Canada as well as Alaska. The original stratigraphy and relationship to North America of the Yukon-Tanana terrane are both obscure. A collapsed Mesozoic flysch basin, similar to the one inboard of Wrangellia, lies along the northern margin. Much of Arctic Alaska was apparently a vast expanse of upper Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic deep marine sediments and mafic volcanic and plutonic rocks now scattered widely as large telescoped sheets and Klippen thrust over the Ruby geanticline and the Brooks Range, and probably underlying the Yukon-Koyukuk basin and the Yukon flats. The Brooks Range itself is a stack of north vergent nappes, the telescoping of which began in Early Cretaceous time. Despite compelling evidence for thousands of kilometers of relative displacement between the accreted terranes, and large amounts of telescoping, translation, and rotation since accretion, the resulting new continental crust added to North America in Alaska carries few obvious signatures that allow application of currently popular simple plate tectonic models. Intraplate telescoping and strike-slip translations, delamination at mid-crustal levels, and large-scale lithospheric wedging were important processes in northern Cordilleran tectonic evolution.     

Meteorological excitation of the annual polar motion

Summary. Numerous studies have indicated that the annual term in the polar motion cannot be explained in any detail by meteorological/hydrological excitation and no reasonable alternative excitations have been put forward. Part of the problem has been that the hydrostatic adjustment of the oceans to the atmospheric pressure changes has traditionally been computed using the inverse barometer approach. This approach does not properly model the gravitational interaction between the atmosphere and oceans, and the inverse barometer theory is modified in this paper to account for this properly. The information necessary to compute the ocean tide and polar excitation caused by any change in the atmospheric pressure pattern is presented. The results of the application of this theory to two global atmospheric pressure data sets are examined and compared to results of other workers.
It is concluded that the atmosphere is observed well enough to answer the question of the annual excitation of polar motion and it is argued that the ground water excitation is the component with the largest error and remains the chief obstacle to the successful solution of this problem.     

The collision singularity in a perturbed two-body problem

It is shown that, in the neighborhood of a collision singularity, the motion in a perturbed two-body problem \(\ddot r = - \mu r^{ - 3} r + P\) , whereP remains bounded, has the same basic properties as the motion in the neighborhood of a collision in the unperturbed two-body problemP=0.     

Methods of searching for planets around pulsars

We analyse different methods of searching for planets around neutron stars by timing observations of pulsars. To this end, we study a few interesting models describing TOA residual variations that are observed, or could be observed, and which can mimic planets. We carry out a detailed theoretical analysis of the behaviour of these methods in the situations mentioned. We show that it is very helpful to look at these phenomena as some kind of quasi-periodic variations of residuals of time of arrival of pulsar pulses. We demonstrate that such a model-independent approach leads to promising conclusions that can be useful when analysing timing observations of pulsars to find planets or to prove that observed phenomena are of planetary origin.     

First record of dinosaur trackway from Tibet,China

Three sauropod trackways comprise eight tracks that resemble Brontopodus tracks have been found at the Morong track site in Changdu Prefecture, Tibet, China. These wide- (or sub-wide)-gauge tracks suggest that there was a large sauropod, possibly a member of Titanosauriformes, in Changdu Prefecture during the Early-Middle Jurassic. The sauropod fauna from Changdu Prefecture, Tibet not only has elements in common with the sauropod fauna from the Sichuan Basin, but may include more diverse faunal components.