Decomposition algorithms for system reliability estimation with applications to interdependent lifeline networks

Reliability and risk assessment of lifeline systems call for efficient methods that integrate hazard and interdependencies. Such methods are computationally challenged when the probabilistic response of systems is tied to multiple events, as performance quantification requires a large catalog of ground motions. Available methods to address this issue use catalog reductions and importance sampling. However, besides comparisons against baseline Monte Carlo trials in select cases, there is no guarantee that such methods will perform or scale well in practice. This paper proposes a new efficient method for reliability assessment of interdependent lifeline systems, termed RAILS, that considers systemic performance and is particularly effective when dealing with large catalogs of events. RAILS uses the state‐space partition method to estimate systemic reliability with theoretical bounds and, for the first time, supports cyclic interdependencies among lifeline systems. Recycling computations across an entire seismic catalog with RAILS considerably reduces the number of system performance evaluations in seismic performance studies. Also, when performance estimate bounds are not tight, we adopt an importance and stratified sampling method that in our computational experiments is various orders of magnitude more efficient than crude Monte Carlo. We assess the efficiency of RAILS using synthetic networks and illustrate its application to quantify the seismic risk of realistic yet streamlined systems hypothetically located in the San Francisco Bay Region.     

Queer Farmland: Land Access Strategies for Small-Scale Agriculture

Farmers struggle to afford farmland because competing land uses raise prices higher than what farmers earn, especially in small-scale and sustainable agriculture. Farmers often depend on an intimate partner’s income or labor to access land, yet few studies investigate sexual relationships in farmland access. I interrogate how sexuality shapes land access for small-scale agriculture through participant observation and interviews with 25 queer farmers in New England. I find that queer farmers’ sexual identities and relationships influence where they farm, who they live and work with, how they afford the land, and how they learn to farm. I argue that finding land, labor, credit, and knowledge are intertwined, heteronormative processes of capital accumulation shaped by racism and sexism. Queer farmers’ experiences navigating heteronormativity suggest the relevance of sexuality to land conservation and food justice, limits of organizing land access through sexual relationships, and alternatives to the “family farm.”     

Estimating the fluvial sediment input to the coastal sediment budget: A case study of Ghana

Knowledge of fluvial sediment supply to the coastal sediment budget is important for the assessment of the impacts on coastal stability. Such knowledge is valuable for designing coastal engineering schemes and the development of shoreline management planning policies. It also facilitates understanding of the connection between rivers in the hinterland and adjoining coastal systems. Ghana's coast has many fluvial sediment sources and this paper provides the first quantitative assessments of their contributions to the coastal sediment budget. The methods use largely existing data and attempt to cover all of Ghana's significant coastal rivers. Initially work was hindered by insufficient direct measured data. However, the problem was overcome by the application of a regression approach, which provides an estimated sediment yield for non-gauged rivers based on data from gauged rivers with similar characteristics. The regression approach was effective because a regional coherence in behaviour was determined between those rivers, where direct measured data were available. The results of the assessment revealed that Ghana's coast is dissected by many south-draining rivers, stream and lagoons. These rivers, streams and lagoons supply significant amounts of sediment to coastal lowlands and therefore contribute importantly to beaches. Anthropogenic impoundment of fluvial sediment, especially the Akosombo dam on the Volta River, has reduced the total fluvial sediment input to the coast from about 71 × 10⁶ m³/a before 1964 (pre-Akosombo dam) to about 7 × 10⁶ m³/a at present (post-Akosombo dam). This sharp reduction threatened the stability of the east coast and prompted an expensive ($83 million) defence scheme to be implemented to protect 8.4 km-long coastline at Keta. Sections of Ghana's coast are closely connected to the hinterland through the fluvial sediment input from local rivers. Therefore, development in the hinterland that alters the fluvial sediment input from those local rivers could have significant effects on the coast. There is the need, therefore, to ensure that catchment management plans and coastal management plans are integrated or interconnected.     

Developing a GIS-Based Online Survey Instrument to Elicit Perceived Neighborhood Geographies to Address the Uncertain Geographic Context Problem

Although neighborhood factors have been consistently associated with health, technological difficulties in eliciting self-defined neighborhoods from large cohorts have compromised the interpretability of this research. Here, we offer a mixed-methods approach to elicit and validate self-defined neighborhoods. Participants used a customized Google.Maps interface to “draw” their neighborhood and answered questions about perceived map accuracy, neighborhood definition, and neighborhood activities. We compared geographic concordance of drawn and narrative neighborhood definitions, quantified differential accuracy by demographic characteristics, and examined factors influencing neighborhood definitions. We found similar geographic concordance between narrative and mapped boundaries in two cities, with no differences by neighborhood size. Self-reported neighborhoods had greater concordance with larger administrative areas (e.g., police precincts) than for smaller units (e.g., census tracts). To delineate their neighborhood boundaries, participants reported using administrative definitions, walking distance, their familiarity with people and structures, where they spend time, and physical landmarks. In New York City, participants also reported considering sociodemographic characteristics and transportation. Our method demonstrates the feasibility of collecting perceived (egocentric) neighborhoods through online mapping surveys, adaptable to many study settings.     

Groundwater,Acid and Carbon Dioxide Dynamics Along a Coastal Wetland,Lake and Estuary Continuum

Coastal wetlands are hotspots for biodiversity and biological productivity, yet the hydrology and carbon cycling within these systems remains poorly understood due to their complex nature. By using a novel spatiotemporal approach, this study quantified groundwater discharge and the related inputs of acidity and CO₂ along a continuum of a modified coastal acid sulphate soil (CASS) wetland, a coastal lake and an estuary under highly contrasting hydrological conditions. To increase the resolution of spatiotemporal data and advance upon previous methodologies, we relied on automated observations from four simultaneous time-series stations to develop multiple radon mass balance models to estimate groundwater discharge and related groundwater inputs of acidity and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), along with surface water to atmosphere CO₂ fluxes. Spatial surveys indicated distinct acid hotspots with minimum surface water pH of 2.91 (dry conditions) and 2.67 (flood conditions) near a non-remediated (drained) CASS area. Under flood conditions, groundwater discharge accounted for ～14.5 % of surface water entering the lake. During the same period, acid discharge from the acid sulphate soil section of the continuum produced ～4.8 kg H₂SO₄?ha^?1 day^?1, a rate much higher than previous studies in similar systems. During baseflow conditions, the low pH water was rapidly buffered within the estuarine lake, with the pH increasing from 4.22 to 6.07 over a distance of ～250 m. The CO₂ evasion rates within the CASS were extremely high, averaging 2163?±?125 mmol m^?2 day^?1 in the dry period and 4061?±?259 mmol m^?2 day^?1 under flood conditions. Groundwater input of DIC could only account for 0.4 % of this evasion in the dry conditions and ～5 % during the flood conditions. We demonstrated that by utilising a spatiotemporal (multiple time-series stations) approach, the study was able to isolate distinct zones of differing hydrology and biogeochemistry, whilst providing more reasonable groundwater acid input estimates and air–water CO₂ flux estimates than some traditional sampling designs. This study highlights the notion that modified CASS wetlands can release large amounts of CO₂ to the atmosphere because of high groundwater acid inputs and extremely low surface water pH.     

Extended time series measurements of submarine groundwater discharge tracers (222Rn and CH4) at a coastal site in Florida

We report the results of an experiment in which we measured ²²²Rn (15,000 observations), CH₄ (40,000 observations), and associated variables in seawater nearly continuously at a coastal site in the Gulf of Mexico for almost two years. Significant correlations between ²²²Rn and CH₄ imply that they are derived from a common source, most likely groundwater. However, we were unable to explain the overall tracer variability as a single function of groundwater table height, temperature, tidal range, and wind speed, indicating multiple, overlapping controls on SGD dynamics at this site. Methane and radon concentrations may vary 2-fold in a given well in the subterranean estuary over tidal time scales, demonstrating the complexity of determining SGD endmember concentrations and suggesting that unaccounted for temporal changes in groundwater may explain some of the patterns observed in seawater. Surprisingly, the variability of ²²²Rn and CH₄ in seawater over short (e.g., hourly) time scales was generally comparable to or even more pronounced than fluctuations over much longer (e.g., monthly) scales. While high tracer concentrations usually occurred during low tide and low tracer concentrations during high tide, this pattern was occasionally inverted or absent indicating that no single model can be used to describe the entire data set. We also describe a sequence of events in which SGD tracers were depleted in coastal waters during storms and regenerated afterwards. We found no increase in radon activities immediately after the largest storm (75 mm rainfall) perhaps because of the short residence times of groundwater in contrast to the ingrowth time of radon. Marine controls appeared to be the most important SGD drivers with only minor influence relating to the shallow and deep aquifers. This implies that seasonal investigations of SGD tracers in the coastal ocean may be masked by short-term variability.     

A comparison of low-latitude cloud properties and their response to climate change in three AGCMs sorted into regimes using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity

Low-latitude cloud distributions and cloud responses to climate perturbations are compared in near-current versions of three leading U.S. AGCMs, the NCAR CAM 3.0, the GFDL AM2.12b, and the NASA GMAO NSIPP-2 model. The analysis technique of Bony et al. (Clim Dyn 22:71–86, 2004) is used to sort cloud variables by dynamical regime using the monthly mean pressure velocity ω at 500 hPa from 30S to 30N. All models simulate the climatological monthly mean top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) adequately in all ω-regimes. However, they disagree with each other and with ISCCP satellite observations in regime-sorted cloud fraction, condensate amount, and cloud-top height. All models have too little cloud with tops in the middle troposphere and too much thin cirrus in ascent regimes. In subsidence regimes one model simulates cloud condensate to be too near the surface, while another generates condensate over an excessively deep layer of the lower troposphere. Standardized climate perturbation experiments of the three models are also compared, including uniform SST increase, patterned SST increase, and doubled CO₂ over a mixed layer ocean. The regime-sorted cloud and CRF perturbations are very different between models, and show lesser, but still significant, differences between the same model simulating different types of imposed climate perturbation. There is a negative correlation across all general circulation models (GCMs) and climate perturbations between changes in tropical low cloud cover and changes in net CRF, suggesting a dominant role for boundary layer cloud in these changes. For some of the cases presented, upper-level clouds in deep convection regimes are also important, and changes in such regimes can either reinforce or partially cancel the net CRF response from the boundary layer cloud in subsidence regimes. This study highlights the continuing uncertainty in both low and high cloud feedbacks simulated by GCMs.