A statistical reappraisal in the relationship between global and Greek seismic activity

For the period 1917–1987, Greek seismic activity exhibits a very significant positive correlation to the preceding global activity with a time-lag of 15 years. It seems that all Greece and the two characteristic areas in which we have separated it (Greece without Arc, and the area of the Greek seismic Arc), follow the global seismic activity but with a time-shift of 15 years. Moreover, it seems to exist an intrinsic interaction mechanism between the Greek seismic arc and the rest of Greece, which may be deduced by their different behavior exhibited when they are correlated with the global activity, as well as from the correlation between themselves, where a very significant positive correlation has been found with a time-lag of 3 years, for Greece without arc preceding. A quasi-periodic term of 30-yrs is also observed in these detailed four seismic time-series.The cross-correlation analysis of seismic time-series, as shown, is served as a powerful tool to clarify the complicated space-time pattern of the world wide mosaic of tectonic plate motions. The implications of spring-block model of tectonic plates interaction is invoked, considering the earth's rotation rate changes as their triggering agent.Particular emphasis is given to the potential of such studies in earthquake prediction efforts from local or regional scales to a global scale and vice-versa.     

Development and validation of a novel-based combination operational air quality forecasting system in Greece

In the present work, a model combination is developed in order to provide the public, in north-western Greece, with the next day air quality forecast. Generally, the development and deployment of a real-time numerical air quality prediction system is technically challenging while even more in complex terrain. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/tapm) is a hydrostatic prognostic mesoscale model. It has been calibrated for the area in recent studies and used in air quality assessments. In 2007, TAPM has started operating in a real-time operational mode for the prediction of next day’s weather forecast, particulate matter (PM₁₀ with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) daily average concentration and Air Pollution Indexes. The model setup is a link up between TAPM and SKIRON modeling system (http://forecast.uoa.gr).     

Pile foundation analysis and design using experimental data and 3-D numerical analysis

Capacity based design of pile foundations limits the soil-structure interaction mechanism to group bearing capacity estimation, neglecting, in most cases, the contribution of the raft. On the other hand, a straightforward, nonlinear, 3-D analysis, accounting for soil and structural nonlinearities and the effects arising from pile–soil–pile interaction, would be extremely high CPU-time demanding and will necessitate the use of exceptionally powerful numerical tools. With the aim of investigating the most efficient, precise, and economical design for a bridge foundation, a hybrid method, compatible with the notion of sub-structuring is proposed. It is based on both experimental data and nonlinear 3-D analysis. The first step to achieve these targets is a back-analysis of a static pile load test, fitting values for soil shear strength, deformation modulus, and shear strength mobilization at the soil–pile interface. Subsequently, the response of 2 × 2 and 3 × 3 pile group configurations is numerically established and the distribution of the applied load to the raft and the characteristic piles is discussed. Finally, a design strategy for an optimized design of pile raft foundations subjected to non-uniform vertical loading is proposed.     

Magnitude of latent heat in thermally loaded clays

Temperature changes are known to induce specific couplings in clay, in particular, an anomalously high thermal pressurization in undrained conditions or a thermal compaction in drained conditions, both of which are potential threats for the mechanical stability and sealing capacity of the geomaterials. Thermodynamical analysis of those peculiar thermomechanical couplings points to a potentially important latent energy, which in turn could limit the temperature change upon heating or cooling. The direct measurement of latent energy developed during a laboratory geomechanical test is challenging. Instead, proper identification of thermal hardening in conventional experiments with temperature changes provides an alternative route to estimate latent energy. In this work, existing laboratory thermomechanical tests of clays are analyzed with a rigorous thermodynamic framework to quantify the magnitude of latent energy in thermomechanically loaded clays. A thermodynamically consistent constitutive model for fully saturated clays that combines two key features, (a) the temperature dependence of the blocked energy and (b) the framework of bounding plasticity, is proposed. The performance of the model is validated by reproducing results obtained in laboratory tests for Boom and Opalinus clays. The thermomechanical loads considered to validate the model performance were then used to estimate the percentage of work that remains latent in the clayey material during plastic yielding. We find that the magnitude of latent energy is quite significant, typically a few tens of percent of the total dissipated energy, and increases significantly with temperature. Accordingly, it is expected to play an important role in the thermomechanical response of clays.     

Empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of Icelandic buildings affected by the 2000 sequence of earthquakes

In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012.     

The temple of apollo (Delphi) strengthens novel thermoluminescence dating method

The temple of Apollo in Delphi (Greece), built in 550 B.C., has been used to reconfirm a novel method of dating carved megalithic stone buildings using thermoluminescence (TL) (Liritzis, 1994). A calcitic (marble) sample was taken from the western side of the well-known inscribed polygonal wall, which constitutes the southern external support foundations of the temple. A partially bleached TL methodology was devised to determine first the ancient residual TL and then the correct archaeological dose. The obtained TL age of 420 ± 300 B.C. is compatible, within the margin of error, with the archaeological age. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An integrated macroelement formulation for the dynamic response of inelastic deformable rocking bodies

This paper presents a macroelement formulation for the prediction of the planar dynamic response of inelastic deformable rocking bodies. The formulation is based on a previous macroelement developed by the authors able to describe the cyclic response of inelastic rocking bodies, which takes into account the deformability both along the height of the member, as well as near the rocking end. Modifications of this formulation to account for other motion modes of rocking members during their dynamic response, namely, sliding and upthrow, as well as modifications to account for damping in a uniform manner during the whole motion, including impacts, are introduced. The dynamic response predicted by the macroelement for free-standing rigid and deformable rocking bodies is presented and compared with existing theoretical solutions, and the effect of deformability, damping, inelasticity, and friction on the response is discussed.     

Efficient strong motion duration of pulse-like records for nonlinear structural analyses

The special interest produced by near-field directivity records and their effect on structural response has given a new significance in the velocity time history, its pulse-like content, and relevant parameters and indices. Recent research has shown that directivity pulses inherent in these records govern the linear and the nonlinear response of a wide range of structures. Based on this observation, it is suggested in this paper that a truncated ground motion, limited to the duration of the predominant velocity pulse, can be efficiently used to predict the structural response, instead of the base motion with the total duration, reducing significantly the required runtimes. The proposed methodology is verified for a series of medium to high rise reinforced concrete buildings, for which nonlinear time-history analyses are performed for a vast suite of pulse-like near-field records applied as base excitations with their total duration and the proposed truncated one. Comparison of the results for the response displacements and forces shows very good agreement, permitting the acceptance of the pulse duration as the efficient strong motion time interval of the original record, which determines the response and, thus, it can be used for nonlinear structural analyses.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thalassia testudinum</Emphasis> Leaf Tissue Nutrients at the Chandeleur Islands,Louisiana, USA

Seagrasses are submerged marine plants that are anchored to the substrate and are therefore limited to assimilating nutrients from the surrounding water column or sediment, or by translocating nutrients from adjacent shoots through the belowground rhizome. As a result, seagrasses have been used as reliable ecosystem indicators of surrounding nutrient conditions. The Chandeleur Islands are a chain of barrier islands in the northern Gulf of Mexico that support the only marine seagrass beds in Louisiana, USA, and are the sole location of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum across nearly 1000 km of the coastline from west Florida to central Texas. Over the past 150 years, the land area of the Chandeleur Islands has decreased by over half, resulting in a decline of seagrass cover. The goals of this study were to characterize the status of a climax seagrass species at the Chandeleur Islands, T. testudinum, in terms of leaf nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]) changes over time, from 1998 to 2015, and to assess potential drivers of leaf nutrient content. Thalassia testudinum leaf nutrients displayed considerable interannual variability in N and P content and molar ratios, which broadly mimicked patterns in annual average dissolved nutrient concentrations in the lower Mississippi River. Hydrological modeling demonstrated the potential for multiple scenarios that would deliver Mississippi River water, and thus nutrients, to T. testudinum at the Chandeleur Islands. Although coastal eutrophication is generally accepted as the proximate cause for seagrass loss globally, there is little evidence that nutrient input from the Mississippi River has driven the dramatic declines observed in seagrasses at the Chandeleur Islands. Rather, seagrass cover along the Chandeleur Islands appears to be strongly influenced by island geomorphological processes. Although variable over time, the often elevated nutrient levels of the climax seagrass species, T. testudinum, which are potentially driven by river-derived nutrient inputs, raises an important consideration of the potential loss of the ecosystem functions and services associated with these declining seagrass meadows.     

Nonstationary stochastic response of structural systems equipped with nonlinear viscous dampers under seismic excitation

Nonlinear viscous dampers are supplemental devices widely used for enhancing the performance of structural systems exposed to seismic hazard. A rigorous evaluation of the effect of these damping devices on the seismic performance of a structural system should be based on a probabilistic approach and take into account the evolutionary characteristics of the earthquake input and of the corresponding system response. In this paper, an approximate analytical technique is proposed for studying the nonstationary stochastic response characteristics of hysteretic single degree of freedom systems equipped with viscous dampers subjected to a fully nonstationary random process representing the seismic input. In this regard, a stochastic averaging/linearization technique is utilized to cast the original nonlinear stochastic differential equation of motion into a simple first‐order nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the nonstationary system response variance. In comparison with standard linearization schemes, the herein proposed technique has the significant advantage that it allows to handle realistic seismic excitations with time‐varying frequency content. Further, it allows deriving a formula for determining the nonlinear system response evolutionary power spectrum. By this way, ‘moving resonance’ effects, related to both the evolutionary seismic excitation and the nonlinear system behavior, can be observed and quantified. Several applications involving various system and input properties are included. Furthermore, various response parameters of interest for the seismic performance assessment are considered as well. Comparisons with pertinent Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the reliability of the proposed technique. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.