Climate change impacts on extreme floods I: combining imperfect deterministic simulations and non-stationary frequency analysis

Flood quantiles are routinely used in hydrologic engineering to design hydraulic structures, optimize erosion control structure and map the extent of floodplains. As an increasing number of papers are pointing out cycles and trends in hydrologic time series, the use of stationary flood distributions leads to the overestimation or underestimation of the hydrologic risk at a given time. Several authors tried to address this problem by using probability distributions with time-varying parameters. The parameters of these distributions were assumed to follow a linear or quadratic trend in time, which may be valid for the short term but may lead to unrealistic long-term projections. On the other hand, deterministic rainfall-runoff models are able to successfully reproduce trends and cycles in stream flow data but can perform poorly in reproducing daily flows and flood peaks. Rainfall-runoff models typically have a better performance when simulation results are aggregated at a larger time scale (e.g. at a monthly time scale vs. at a daily time scale). The strengths of these two approaches are combined in this paper where the annual maximum of the time-averaged outputs of a hydrologic model are used to modulate the parameters of a non-stationary GEV model of the daily maximum flow. The method was applied to the Kemptville Creek located in Ontario, Canada, using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model as rainfall-runoff model. The parameters of the non-stationary GEV model are then estimated using Monte Carlo Markov Chain, and the optimal span of the time windows over which the SWAT outputs were averaged was selected using Bayes factors. Results show that using the non-stationary GEV distribution with a location parameter linked to the maximum 9-day average flow provides a much better estimation of flood quantiles than applying a stationary frequency analysis to the simulated peak flows.     

Determination of Electron Density and Filling Factor for Soft X-Ray Flare Kernels

In the standard method of electron density determination for soft X-ray (SXR) flare kernels, it is necessary to assume what the extent is of a kernel along the line of sight. This is a source of significant uncertainty of the obtained densities.     

Radiative properties of stellar plasmas and open challenges

The lifetime of solar-like stars, the envelope structure of more massive stars, and stellar acoustic frequencies largely depend on the radiative properties of the stellar plasma. Up to now, these complex quantities have been estimated only theoretically. The development of the powerful tools of helio- and astero- seismology has made it possible to gain insights on the interiors of stars. Consequently, increased emphasis is now placed on knowledge of the monochromatic opacity coefficients. Here we review how these radiative properties play a role, and where they are most important. We then concentrate specifically on the envelopes of ?? Cephei variable stars. We discuss the dispersion of eight different theoretical estimates of the monochromatic opacity spectrum and the challenges we need to face to check these calculations experimentally.     

Quaternary bimodal volcanism in the Niğde Volcanic Complex (Cappadocia,central Anatolia,Turkey): age,petrogenesis and geodynamic implications

The late Neogene to Quaternary Cappadocian Volcanic Province (CVP) in central Anatolia is one of the most impressive volcanic fields of Turkey because of its extent and spectacular erosionally sculptured landscape. The late Neogene evolution of the CVP started with the eruption of extensive andesitic-dacitic lavas and ignimbrites with minor basaltic lavas. This stage was followed by Quaternary bimodal volcanism. Here, we present geochemical, isotopic (Sr–Nd–Pb and δ¹⁸O isotopes) and geochronological (U–Pb zircon and Ar–Ar amphibole and whole-rock ages) data for bimodal volcanic rocks of the Ni?de Volcanic Complex (NVC) in the western part of the CVP to determine mantle melting dynamics and magmatic processes within the overlying continental crust during the Quaternary. Geochronological data suggest that the bimodal volcanic activity in the study area occurred between ca. 1.1 and ca. 0.2 Ma (Pleistocene) and comprises (1) mafic lavas consisting of basalts, trachybasalts, basaltic andesites and scoria lapilli fallout deposits with mainly basaltic composition, (2) felsic lavas consisting of mostly rhyolites and pumice lapilli fall-out and surge deposits with dacitic to rhyolitic composition. The most mafic sample is basalt from a monogenetic cone, which is characterized by ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7038, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.5128, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.80, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.60 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.68, suggesting a moderately depleted signature of the mantle source. Felsic volcanic rocks define a narrow range of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotope ratios (0.5126–0.5128) and are homogeneous in Pb isotope composition (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.84–18.87, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.64–15.67 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.93–38.99). ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotopic compositions of mafic (0.7038–0.7053) and felsic (0.7040–0.7052) samples are similar, reflecting a common mantle source. The felsic rocks have relatively low zircon δ¹⁸O values (5.6 ± 0.6 ‰) overlapping mantle values (5.3 ± 0.3 %), consistent with an origin by fractional crystallization from a mafic melt with very minor continental crustal contamination. The geochronological and geochemical data suggest that mafic and felsic volcanic rocks of the NVC are genetically closely related to each other. Mafic rocks show a positive trend between ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Th, suggesting simultaneous assimilation and fractional crystallization, whereas the felsic rocks are characterized by a flat or slightly negative variation. High ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr gneisses are a potential crustal contaminant of the mafic magmas, but the comparatively low and invariant ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in the felsic volcanics suggests that these evolved dominantly by fractional crystallization. Mantle-derived basaltic melts, which experienced low degree of crustal assimilation, are proposed to be the parent melt of the felsic volcanics. Geochronological and geochemical results combined with regional geological and geophysical data suggest that bimodal volcanism of the NVC and the CVP, in general, developed in a post-collisional extensional tectonic regime that is caused by ascending asthenosphere, which played a key role during magma genesis.     

Numerical and field study of ship-induced waves along the St. Lawrence Waterway,Canada

Coastal and bank erosion along the St. Lawrence River Waterway in Quebec, Canada, represents a hazard to local communities living along the river banks, as well as to the local fauna habitat. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential impact of the waves generated by long containerships on riverbank erosion and recession at critical sites along the St. Lawrence River Waterway, which have already experienced significant damage. A field study was carried out to investigate the ship-generated hydrodynamics and the various driving mechanisms of the erosion process induced by ship waves. The field measurements provided an assessment of the influence of the length of large vessels by comparing the characteristics of the hydrodynamics fields induced by the passage of two containerships of different lengths. The potential for bank erosion and recession is assessed in terms of the wake erosive energy incident to the shoreline. The field data are compared against analytical results predicted by an empirical model, as well as against a ship-generated hydrodynamics model. Several numerical simulations for quantifying the ship’s drawdown and its effects are also presented.     

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis for 54 models of computing hourly diffuse solar irradiation on clear sky

Fifty-four broadband models for computation of solar diffuse irradiation on horizontal surface were tested in Romania (South-Eastern Europe). The input data consist of surface meteorological data, column integrated data, and data derived from satellite measurements. The testing procedure is performed in 21 stages intended to provide information about the sensitivity of the models to various sets of input data. There is no model to be ranked “the best” for all sets of input data. However, some of the models performed better than others, in the sense that they were ranked among the best for most of the testing stages. The best models for solar diffuse radiation computation are, on equal footing, ASHRAE 2005 model (ASHRAE 2005) and King model (King and Buckius, Solar Energy 22:297–301, 1979). The second best model is MAC model (Davies, Bound Layer Meteor 9:33–52, 1975). Details about the performance of each model in the 21 testing stages are found in the Electronic Supplementary Material.     

Large dam-reservoir systems: guidelines and tools to estimate loads resulting from natural hazards

This paper examines hydrodynamic pressure diagrams due to earthquakes acting on distinct configurations of the upstream face of a dam, considering the reservoir length and different bathymetries of the reservoir bottom. Two suitable mathematical models are used to obtain the dynamic pressure on the dam, and the reservoir free surface oscillation. Conceptual mathematical models are proposed to study the impact of a landslide triggered by an earthquake, and its progress into the reservoir. The waves formed when a landslide advances into the reservoir are tested with the help of laboratory results. These waves and their propagation in the reservoir are studied using experimental data and numerical results, including wave-type analyses based on dimensionless parameters. Two distinct 1DH and 2DV numerical models based on different mathematical formulations are tested. A discussion of physical and numerical results is detailed in a general risk context and uncertainty associated with the input data in a deterministic model. Numerical simulations are performed for the upper and lower limits of the sliding mass velocity diagram which is obtained as a result of the intrinsic uncertainty of the stochastic nature of the friction angle. Finally, the findings are discussed and some conclusions drawn.     

Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of?Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap.