Spatial modelling of soil erosion potential in a mountainous watershed of South-eastern Serbia

This study employed genetic adaptive neural networks in the classification of high-resolution satellite images from which data related to surface conditions in mountainous areas of Taiwan were derived. Principal component analysis was then used to extract factors associated with the threat of natural disaster, and logistic regression was used to compute the probability of disaster occurrence. Through field surveys, interviews with district officials and a review of relevant literature, the probability of a sediment disaster was estimated as well as the vulnerability of the villages concerned and the degree to which these villages were prepared, to construct a risk evaluation model. A geographic information system was used to plot regional risk maps as a means to enhance the safety of residents in the study area. The risk assessment model can be used by authorities to make provisions for high-risk areas, to reduce the number of casualties and social costs of sediment disasters.     

The IAU 2009 system of astronomical constants: the report of the IAU working group on numerical standards for Fundamental Astronomy

In the 2006?C2009 triennium, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) Working Group on Numerical Standards for Fundamental Astronomy determined a list of Current Best Estimates (CBEs). The IAU 2009 Resolution B2 adopted these CBEs as the IAU (2009) System of Astronomical Constants. Additional work continues to define the process of updating the CBEs and creating a standard electronic document.     

The monitoring of slow-moving landslides and assessment of stabilisation measures using an optical–mechanical crack gauge

It is possible to monitor slow-moving landslides and assess landslide stabilisation measures over protracted periods using an optical–mechanical crack gauge called a TM-71. This technical note outlines the theoretical background to the gauge and illustrates its practical application through a number of case studies. These studies are drawn from a range of landslide types and stabilisation measures. In terms of monitoring slow-moving landslides, three studies of deep-seated deformations are presented. The Taukliman coastal landslide on the Black Sea Coast is characterised by vertical and horizontal displacements of up to 0.2?mm?year^?1 and sudden earthquake-induced dilations of up to 6?mm. The Parohy ridge spreading landslide in the Malá Fatra Mountains is characterised by gravitationally induced vertical displacements of 0.7?mm?year^?1. The slope deformation that formed Cyrilka Cave in the Beskydy Mountains is characterised by very slow sinistral strike–slip movements of 0.8?mm?year^?1. In terms of assessing landslide stabilisation measures, two studies are presented from Orava Castle in Slovakia and Tetín in the Czech Republic. The data recorded at these sites demonstrate that the constructed stabilisation measures have successfully alleviated the potential landslide hazard in both localities. These case studies clearly demonstrate that the gauge represents an important tool with which to monitor slow-moving landslides and assess landslide stabilisation measures. It is able to provide a precise three-dimensional record of deformation, withstand harsh environmental conditions, and record reliable data over protracted periods.     

A corrected 3-D SPH method for breaking tsunami wave modelling

A 3-D large eddy simulation model that was first transformed to smoothed particle hydrodynamics (LES-SPH)-based model was employed to study breaking tsunami waves in this paper. LES-SPH is a gridless (or mesh-free), purely Lagrangian particle approach which is capable of tracking the free surface of violent deformation with fragmentation in an easy and accurate way. The Smagorinsky closure model is used to simulate the turbulence due to its simplicity and effectiveness. The Sub-Particle Scale scheme, plus the link-list algorithm, is applied to reduce the demand of computational power. The computational results show that the 3-D LES-SPH model can capture well the breaking wave characteristics. Spatial evolution features of breaking wave are presented and visualized. The detailed mechanisms of turbulence transport and vorticity dynamics are demonstrated as well. This application also presents an example to validate the SPH model.     

Numerical modelling of coastal inundation from Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunamis and implications for coastal communities on western Vancouver Island,Canada

Natural Hazards - In the present study, numerical simulations were conducted to estimate the spatio-temporal characteristics of tsunami inundation for municipalities on Vancouver Island, Canada, as...     

Determining optimum tilt angles of solar surfaces in Sakarya,Turkey

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990 to 2001–2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991–2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981–1990, 1991–2000, and 2001–2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong spatiotemporal fluctuations in explanatory power of the different indices over all German counties and the three time periods. Over the 30 years, yield deviations were increasingly well correlated with heat and drought-related indices, with the number of days with maximum temperature above 25 °C during anthesis showing a sharp increase in explanatory power over entire Germany in the final 2001–2010 period.     

Magmagenesis in a subduction-related post-collisional volcanic arc segment: the Ukrainian Carpathians

Calc-alkaline magmatism in the south-west Ukraine occurred between 13.8 and 9.1 Ma and formed an integral part of the Neogene subduction-related post-collisional Carpathian volcanic arc. Eruptions occurred contemporaneously in two parallel arcs (here termed Outer Arc and Inner Arc) in the Ukrainian part of the Carpathians. Outer Arc rocks, mainly andesites, are characterized by LILE enrichment (e.g. K and Pb), Nb depletion, low compatible trace element abundances, high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, high δ¹⁸O and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotopic ratios (0.7085–0.7095, 7.01–8.53, 0.51230–0.51245, respectively). Inner Arc rocks are mostly dacites and rhyolites with some basaltic and andesitic lavas. They also show low compatible element abundances but have lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ¹⁸O and higher ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios (0.7060–0.7085, 6.15–6.64, 0.5125–0.5126, respectively) than Outer Arc rocks. Both high-Nb and low-Nb lithologies are present in the Inner Arc. Based on the LILE enrichment (especially Pb), a higher fluid flux is suggested for the Outer Arc magmas compared with those of the Inner Arc.

Combined trace element and Sr–Nd–O isotopic modelling suggests that the factors which controlled the generation and evolution of magmas were complex. Compositional differences between the Inner and Outer Arcs were produced by introduction of variable proportions of slab-derived sediments and fluids into a heterogeneous mantle wedge, and by different extents of upper crustal contamination. Degrees of magmatic fractionation also differed between the two arcs. The most primitive magmas belong to the Inner Arc. Isotopic modelling shows that they can be produced by adding 3–8% subducted terrigenous flysch sediments to the local mantle wedge source. Up to 5% upper crustal contamination has been modelled for fractionated products of the Inner Arc. The geochemical features of Outer Arc rocks suggest that they were generated from mantle wedge melts similar to the Inner Arc primitive magmas, but were strongly affected by both source enrichment and upper crustal contamination. Assimilation of 10–20% bulk upper crust is required in the AFC modelling, assuming an Inner Arc parental magma. We suggest that magmagenesis is closely related to the complex geotectonic evolution of the Carpathian area. Several tectonic and kinematic factors are significant: (1) hydration of the asthenosphere during subduction and plate rollback directly related to collisional processes; (2) thermal disturbance caused by ascent of hot asthenospheric mantle during the back-arc opening of the Pannonian Basin; (3) clockwise translational movements of the Intracarpathian terranes, which facilitated eruption of the magmas.     

Calpionellids and calcispheres from the upper Jurassic-lower Cretaceous deposits in the Resita-Moldova Noua zone, Southern Carpathians, Romania

An assemblage of calpionellids and calcispheres identified in five lithostratigraphic units allows the identification of eight biozones in the upper Oxfordian-Hauterivian interval. Since the biozonation according to calpionellids has already been accurately defined by Pop (1974, 1989) for the Marila Limestones and Crivina Marls, the novelty of our approach resides mainly in the extension of this biozonation to the over- and underlying lithostratigraphic units using calcispheres. The possibility of micropalaeontologically delimiting the Valea Aninei Limestones is extremely significant, since the age of these limestones has been estimated so far only by their geometrical setting in the lithostratigraphic sequence of formations in the area.