焦作市4-9月短期降水精细化预报系统

在降水时空变化研究的基础上,完成辖区降水区划;用计算机识别T213风场中槽线、切变线等影响系统,并按其相对于预报站方位,确定对其影响强度指数,组合预报因子,建立判别方程,制作分县0～12小时、12～24小时降水分级预报。经检验,系统对降水落区有较强预报能力。     

Reconstructed light extinction coefficients using chemical compositions of PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> in winter in Urban Guangzhou,China

The objective of this study was to reconstruct light extinction coefficients (b ext ) according to chemical composition components of particulate matter up to 2.5 μm in size (PM 2.5 ). PM 2.5 samples were collected at the monitoring station of the South China of Institute of Environmental Science (SCIES, Guangzhou, China) during January 2010, and the online absorbing and scattering coefficients were obtained using an aethalometer and a nephelometer. The measured values of light absorption coefficient by particle (b ap ) and light scattering coefficient by particle (b sp ) significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.95) with values of b ap and b sp that were reconstructed using the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) formula when RH was <70%. The measured b ext had a good correlation (R 2 > 0.83) with the calculated b ext under ambient RH conditions. The result of source apportionment of b ext showed that ammonium sulfate [(NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 ] was the largest contributor (35.0%) to b ext , followed by ammonium nitrate (NH 4 NO 3 , 22.9%), organic matter (16.1%), elemental carbon (11.8%), sea salt (4.7%), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 , 9.6%). To improve visibility in Guangzhou, the effective control of secondary particles like sulfates, nitrates, and ammonia should be given more attention in urban environmental management.     

内蒙古极端低温事件发生的环流特征及预测概念模型

利用50a（1961-2010年）的日最低气温计算阈值,超过此阈值为极端低温事件。将内蒙古东、中、西部的极端最低气温事件进行四季划分统计．讨论分析这些地区的极端低温事件与大气环流、海洋因子的关系。分析研究表明：内蒙古极端低温事件主要发生在冬季（12月至次年2月）,集中在20世纪60年代初至80年代中期,80年代中期至90年代末基本上没有发生,90年代末以后又陆续发生,但强度、范围明显减小。极端低温事件与北半球极涡、北极涛动、北太平洋涛动、南方涛动、海气相互作用、副热带高压、两风带环流存在着大体一致的年代际震荡趋势,同时与冷空气南下的路径有关,而且相关关系显著。通过相关检验,建立内蒙古极端低温事件的预测概念模型．以此应J}=fj于实际的业务当中．减少极端事件发生引发的各方面损失。     

福建热带气旋灾害精细化危险性评估

根据1981—2021年福建省热带气旋风雨资料,采用极差标准化、相关系数客观赋权法和自然断点法建立热带气旋致灾因子危险性评估模型,评估结果表明：选择降水7个因子和大风4个因子作为评估指标体系合理;雨高危险性区域位于沿海,南平和三明地区雨危险性较低;风较高危险性区域明显窄于雨较高危险性区域,危险性等级向内陆降低远快于降水,其中罗源湾至崇武沿海因受台湾岛地形屏障保护,危险性比沿海南北部小1个等级;风雨综合致灾危险性,沿海县市皆为较高危险性区域,其中中部沿海高危险性区域小,沿海南北部大,另外登陆粤东热带气旋沿海北上滞留在闽西上空的低压云团造成闽西北部存在较高危险性区域;在热带气旋登陆影响过程中,精细化致灾因子危险性评估更具有针对性,且与灾情相符,为气象灾害决策服务提供了更有价值的参考信息。     

华南前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及成因

应用福建、广东、广西243个气象站1961-2012年逐日降水资料,构建华南前汛期暴雨强度指数,揭示了前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及其可能机理。研究表明:前汛期持续性暴雨经历了多发（1961-1972年）-少发（1973-1991年）-多发（1992-2012年）3个阶段,目前仍处于多发期,具有持续时间较长且强度增强的特点;由于前汛期降水的低频振荡受热带低频信号北传的调制,因此,导致这种显著年代际变化的可能成因是热带低频信号北传的周期和强度的年代际差异,当热带低频信号北传至华南时低频周期长（短）且强度强（弱）,则前汛期易出现持续时间长（短）且强度强（弱）的持续性暴雨。     

Assessment of surface air warming in northeast China, with emphasis on the impacts of urbanization

Based on homogenized land surface air temperature (SAT) data (derived from China Homogenized Historical Temperature (CHHT) 1.0), the warming trends over Northeast China are detected in this paper, and the impacts of urban heat islands (UHIs) evaluated. Results show that this region is undergoing rapid warming: the trends of annual mean minimum temperature (MMIT), mean temperature (MT), and mean maximum temperature (MMAT) are 0.40 C decade^?1, 0.32 C decade^?1, and 0.23 C decade^?1, respectively. Regional average temperature series built with these networks including and excluding “typical urban stations” are compared for the periods of 1954–2005. Although impacts of UHIs on the absolute annual and seasonal temperature are identified, UHI contributions to the long-term trends are less than 10% of the regional total warming during the period. The large warming trend during the period is due to a regime shift in around 1988, which accounted for about 51% of the regional warming.     

菏泽市夏季对流天气预报方法

利用2004-2005年4-9月逐日常规高空格点资料，根据产生对流天气的三个基本条件，即水汽条件、不稳定层结条件和抬升力条件，进行因子的选取和组合，用逐步回归方法建立了各县市12～24小时客观预报方程，利用VB6．0编程，自动调取资料选取因子，将计算结果显示，实现了自动化，经试用，效果较好。     

Holocene slip rate and paleoearthquake records of the Salt Lake segment of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault,Shanxi Province

The Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault is a major deep fault at the southern margin of the Yuncheng Basin. There have been few studies on the fault, and the historical earthquakes are few and weak. However, the intensity of activity on the fault should never be underestimated. Through interpretations of aerial images, topography measurements and excavation of trenches, this paper studied the fault distribution, the surface deformation and the activity of the normal fault south of Salt Lake near the city of Yuncheng. By tracing faults in the three trenches, it was found that there had been at least three large paleoseismic events, at 1–3.5, 3.6–4.4 and 7.4–8.8 ka BP. Employing 14 C dating, we determined the same gravel layers in the uplifted side and downthrown side. Making differential Global Positioning System measurements of the vertical difference and topographic profile, we obtained the mean slip rate of the Northern Zhongtiaoshan Fault since 24.7 ka BP(0.75±0.05 mm/a). Using the results of relevant studies, we calculated the possible vertical fault displacement of one earthquake(2.35 m) and obtained the recurrence interval of characteristic earthquakes as 2940–3360 a after dividing the displacement by the mean slip rate.     

基于网络环境的MapMIS数字化生产管理系统

Map MIS是一个应用于数字化测绘生产的管理信息系统。它集成了网络、数据库、分布式数据仓库技术 ,它可以在生产过程中帮助生产管理人员、质量检查人员、作业人员管理与数字化测绘生产相关的事务流、信息流和海量的数据流。提出了数字化测绘生产管理的新模式     

地理国情普查影像解译自动化方案研究

随着空天地一体化对地观测传感网的逐步完善,积累了大量的空间遥感影像。地理国情普查项目进一步地推动了遥感技术的发展和遥感影像的使用,使遥感影像更好地服务于经济社会的发展和生态文明的建设。传统的依靠人工的地物信息提取方式不能满足需求,本文尝试影像解译自动化方案替代完全依靠人工采集的方式,提高遥感信息提取的效率。