Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

Characteristics of tephra in Holocene lake sediments on King George Island, West Antarctica: implications for deglaciation and paleoenvironment

Several reworked tephra layers in gravity-flow deposits are present in lacustrine core sediments collected from Hotel and Rudy Lakes on King George Island, South Shetland Islands, maritime sub-Antarctica. This study tests the values of tephra for establishing regional tephrochronologies for lakes in ice-covered landscapes in the vicinity of volcanoes. The tephra record is more abundant in a long Hotel Lake core (515 cm long). This study uses volcanic glass samples from five tephra layers of Hotel Lake and from one tephra layer of Rudy Lake. Morphologically, tephras are mixtures of basaltic and pumice shards, both having various degrees of vesicularity. Major element analyses of glass shards reveal that the majority of the glass fragments belong to basic glass (<60 wt% SiO₂), compositionally ranging from basalt to low-silica andesite and subalkaline series medium-K tholeiites, probably sourced from Deception Island located 130 km southwest of King George Island. Less than 20% of tephra belongs to silicic glass and occurs in three tephra horizons E of Hotel Lake. However, source volcano(es) for about 10% of basic tephra and silicic tephra are not readily identified from nearby volcanic centers. Except for the studied tephra in Rudy Lake, all tephra samples in Hotel Lake are not ashfall deposits but reworked and redeposited pyroclasts derived from retreating ice sheet, resulting in the occurrence of geochemically equivalent tephra samples in different tephra horizons. The dating of the studied tephra horizons represents the timing of deglaciation rather than that of volcanic eruptions. The result of this study implies that combined with sedimentological information more chemical criterion is necessary to study tephrochronology and regional correlation and to understand paleoenvironmental changes using tephra.     

Glaciomarine sedimentation and palaeo-glacial setting of Maxwell Bay and its tributary embayment, Marian Cove, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica

High-resolution (3.5 kHz and multi-channel) seismic profiles and piston cores were collected from Maxwell Bay and its tributary embayment, Marian Cove, in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, during the Korea Antarctic Research Program (1992/93 and 1995/96) to elucidate the glaciomarine sedimentation processes and recent glacial history of the area. Seismic data from Maxwell Bay reveal a rugged bay margin and flattened basin floor covered with well-stratified hemipelagic muds. On the base-of-slope, acoustically transparent debris flows occur, indicating downslope resedimentation of glaciomarine sediments. Despite the subpolar and ice-proximal settings of Marian Cove, the seafloor is highly rugged with a thin sediment drape, suggesting that much of the area has been recently eroded by glaciers. Sediment cores from the cove penetrated three distinct fining-upward lithofacies: (1) basal till in the lower part of the core, accumulated just seaward of the grounding line of the tidewater glacier; (2) interlaminated sand and mud in the middle part, deposited in ice-proximal zone by a combination of episodic subglacial meltwater inflow and iceberg dumping; and (3) pebbly mud in the upper part, deposited in ice-distal zone by both surface meltwater plume and ice-rafting from the glacier front. A reconstruction of the glacial history of these areas since the late glacial maximum shows an ice sheet filling Maxwell Bay in late Wisconsin time and grounding of the tidewater glacier in Marian Cove until about 1300 yr BP.     

Unstable Climate Oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula

Core A9-EB2 from the eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, consists of pelagic (diatom ooze-clay couplets and bioturbated diatom ooze) and hemipelagic (bioturbated mud) sediments interbedded with turbidites (homogeneous mud and silt–clay couplets). The cyclic and laminated nature of these pelagic sediments represents alternation between the deposition of diatom-rich biogenic sediments and of terrigenous sediments. Sediment properties and geochemical data explain the contrasting lamination, with light layers being finer-grained and relatively rich in total organic carbon and biogenic silica content. Also, the high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) variations highlight distinct features: high MS values coincide with clastic-rich sections and low MS values correspond to biogenic sections. The chronology developed for core A9-EB2 accounts for anomalous ages associated with turbidites and shows a linear sedimentation rate of approximately 87 cm/10³ yr, which is supported by an accumulation rate of 80 cm/10³ yr calculated from ²¹⁰Pb activity. The late Holocene records clearly identify Neoglacial events of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear in the MS record, suggesting intrinsically unstable climatic conditions during the late Holocene in the Bransfield Basin of Antarctic Peninsula.     

Vertical distribution of giant jellyfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nemopilema nomurai</Emphasis> using acoustics and optics

Nemopilema nomurai jellyfish, which are believed to complete their development in the East China Sea, have started migrating into the Yellow Sea in recent years. We obtained biomass estimates of this species in the Yellow Sea using bottom trawl fishing gear and sighting surveys over a 5-year period. These methods are effective for obtaining N. nomurai jellyfish density estimates and information about the community distribution near the bottom or surface of the sea. To verify the vertical distributions of giant jellyfish between, we used hydroacoustic equipment, including an optical stereo camera system attached to a towed sledge and an echo counting method with scientific echosounder system. Acoustic and optical data were collected while the vessel moved at 3 knots, from which the distribution and density of N. nomurai jellyfish were analyzed. Subsequently, the camera system was towed from a 7 m mean depth to sea level, with the detection range of the acoustic system extending from an 8 m depth to the bottom surface. The optical and acoustic methods indicated the presence of vertical distribution of 0.11³ (inds/m³) and 0.064 (inds/m3), respectively. However, the vertical distribution indicated that around 93% of individuals occurred at a depth range of 10–40 m; thus, a 2.4-fold greater density was estimated by acoustic echo counting compared to the optical method.     

Particle shape effect on thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity in sands

This study presents the correlations between quantified shape parameters and geotechnical properties for nine sand specimens. Four shape parameters, sphericity, convexity, elongation and slenderness, were quantified with two-dimensional microscopic images with the aid of image processing techniques. An instrumented oedometer cell is used to measure compressibility, thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during loading, unloading and reloading stages. As the particle shape inherently determines the initial loose packing condition, initial void ratio and shape parameters are well correlated with compressibility. The applied stress in soils increases the interparticle contact area and contact quality; round particles tend to achieve higher thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during stress-induced volume change. Multiple linear regression is implemented to capture the relative contributions of involved variables, revealing that the thermal evolution is governed by the initial packing density and particle shape. The experimental observations underscore the predominant effect that particle shape has on the geomechanical and physical properties upon stress-induced soil behavior.     

Reconstruction of historical nutrient levels in Korean and Japanese coastal areas based on dinoflagellate cyst assemblages

Dinoflagellate cysts acquired from sediment cores were analyzed in order to reconstruct historical nutrient levels in Gamak Bay, Korea and Ariake Bay, Japan. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in Gamak Bay were characterized by high proportions of heterotrophic cysts such as Brigantedinium spp., Protoperidinium americanum and Polykrikos cysts, which suggested that nutrients levels may have already been high before 1970s, and then increased further to the hypertrophic conditions of the 1990s. In contrast, dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in Ariake Bay were characterized by high relative abundances of Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites spp., which suggested that nutrient levels in Ariake Bay had increased gradually since the mid 1960s, and may have been significantly enhanced by the mid 1980s. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reflecting environmental changes in the two bays are contrasting, perhaps due to different nutrient enrichment mechanisms. This suggests that the indicators of nutrient levels encoded in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages may exhibit site-specific information.     

Estimation of the minimum food requirement using the respiration rate of medusa of Aurelia aurita in Sihwa Lake

We examined the respiration rate of Aurelia aurita medusae at 20 °C and 28 °C to evaluate minimum metabolic demands of medusae population in Sihwa Lake, Korea during summer. While weight specific respiration rates of medusae were constant and irrespective to the wet weight (8?C220 g), they significantly varied in respect to temperatures (p<0.001, 0.11±0.03 mg C g^?1 of medusa d^?1 at 20°C and 0.28±0.11 mg C g^?1 of medusa d^?1 at 28 °C in average, where Q ₁₀ value was 2.62). The respiration rate of medusae was defined as a function of temperature (T, °C) and body weight (W, g) according to the equation, R=0.13×2.62^(T-20)/10 W ^0.93. Population minimum food requirement (PMFR) was estimated from the respiration rate as 15.06 and 4.86 mg C m^?3 d^?1 in June and July, respectively. During this period, increase in bell diameter and wet weight was not significant (p=1 in the both), suggesting that the estimated PMFR closely represented the actual food consumption in the field. From July to August, medusae grew significantly at 0.052 d-1, thus the amount of food ingested by medusae population in situ was likely to exceed the PMFR (1.27 mg C m^?3 d^?1) during the period. In conclusion, the medusae population of higher density during June and July had limited amount of food, while those of lower in July and August ingested enough food for growth.