Plate and intraplate processes of Hercynian Europe during the late paleozoic

It is speculated that until Late Carboniferous time the region of Hercynian Europe was occupied by an elongated island arc system underlain by a segment of continental crust. In the Upper Carboniferous, two subduction zones are assumed to have extended from the north and south beneath Hercynian Europe. An extensive zone of hot, partially molten upper mantle lay above and between these, and diapiric uprise of portions of this material led to separation of mafic magmas, widespread partial melting in the lower and middle crust, high temperature-low pressure metamorphism in crustal rocks, and regional uplift and extension of the crust, as indicated by intermontane troughs and their associated volcanic rocks.In Visean to Westphalian time Hercynian Europe collided with both the large neighbouring plates North America-Europe and Africa. During these diachronous collisions and owing to reduced rigidity of the relatively hot island arc crust, the irregular continental margins of the larger and thicker continental plates induced oroclinal bending of Hercynian Europe. After the collision processes had been terminated, processes of upper mantle activity continued, causing further crustal uplift and even, enhanced crustal extension for several tens of million years into the Lower Permian. Decline of the upper mantle activity beneath Hercynian Europe is indicated by crustal subsidence and formation of a peneplain in Permian time followed by the Upper Permian transgression of both the Zechstein sea and the Tethys sea which mark the end of the Hercynian geodynamic cycle.     

The status and prospects of risk assessment

After discussing the changing nature of perceived risk problems, the status of risk assessment is described in relation to its origins and in particular to its roots in the environmental impact statement process. The nature of risk, its component elements and the manner in which existing concepts of risk have been reflected in risk assessment methods are described. The paper considers two emerging schools of thought in current risk assessment studies: one that calls for more accurate measures of risk and increasingly comprehensive event prediction models to determine risk acceptability and another which argues that the acceptance of risk is less dependent on the accuracy of risk analyses than it is on the nature of the decision-making process and in particular on whether compensation is provided for those bearing a disproportionate share of risk.     

Multiple scattering of seismic waves in fractured media: Velocity and effective attenuation of the coherent components ofP waves andS waves

We show that the multiple scattering by small fractures of seismic waves with wavelengths long compared to the fracture size and fracture spacing is indistinguishable from multiple-scattering effects produced by regular porosity, except for an orientation factor due to fracture alignment. The fractures reduce theP-wave andS-wave velocities and produce an effective attenuation of the coherent component of the seismic waves. The attenuation corresponds to 1000/Q of about unity for a Gaussian spectrum of fractures, and it varies with frequencyf asf ³. For a Kolmogorov spectrum of fractures of spectral index the attenuation is an order of magnitude or so larger and varies with frequency asf ^3-v The precise degree of attenuation depends upon the matrix properties, the fracture porosity, the degree of fracture anisotropy, the type of fluid filling the fractures, and the incidence angle of the wave.For fracture porosities less than about 15% theP-wave andS-wave velocities are decreased by the order of 5–10% with a lesser dependence on the type of fluid filling the fractures (gas, oil, or brine) and with a dependence on both the degree of anisotropy and the incident angle made by the wave. The tendency of fractures to occur perpendicularly to bedding suggests that the best way to measure seismically fractured rock behavior in situ is by using the travel-time delay and reflection amplitude. As both the offset and the azimuth of receivers vary from a shot, the travel-time delay and reflection amplitude should both show an elliptical pattern of behavior—the travel-time delay in response to the varying seismic speed, and the reflection amplitude in response to angular variations in the multiple scattering. Observations of attenuation at several frequencies should permit (a) determination of the spectrum of fractures (Gaussian versus Kolmogorovian) and (b) determination of the contribution of viscous damping to the effective attenuation.     

An evaluation of flow-stratified sampling for estimating suspended sediment loads

Flow-stratified sampling is a new method for sampling water quality constituents such as suspended sediment to estimate loads. As with selection-at-list-time (SALT) and time-stratified sampling, flow-stratified sampling is a statistical method requiring random sampling, and yielding unbiased estimates of load and variance. It can be used to estimate event yields or to estimate mean concentrations in flow classes for detecting change over time or differences from water quality standards. Flow-stratified sampling is described and its variance compared with those of SALT and time-stratified sampling. Time-stratified sampling generally gives the smallest variance of the three methods for estimating storm yields. Flow-stratified sampling of individual storms may fail to produce estimates in some short-lived strata because they may have sample sizes of zero. SALT will tend to give small samples and relatively high variances for small stroms. For longer and more complex hydrographs, having numerous peaks, flow-stratified sampling gives the lowest variance, and the SALT variance is lower than that of time-stratified sampling unless the sample size is very large. A desirable feature of flow-stratified sampling is that the variance can be reduced after sampling by splitting strata, particularly high flow strata that have been visited just once, and recalculating the total and variance. SALT has the potential to produce the lowest variance, but cannot be expected to do so with an auxiliary variable based on stage.     

Exploratory spectral analysis of hydrological times series

Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.     

Plate tectonics,palaeoenvironments and limestone geomorphology in West-Central Britain

The variety of active, exhumed, and buried limestone landforms of northern England, North Wales, and the Isle of Man arises in part from the way in which Dinantian (Lower Carboniferous) sedimentation was affected by a tilt-block basement structure evolved during the closure of the Iapetus Ocean suture to the north, and partly to subsequent plate tectonic movements associated with the closure of the proto-Tethys ocean, the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and the Alpine orogeny. Landforms created during the Dinantian now form important exhumed and buried landscape features. The Permian half-graben structures of the eastern Irish Sea-Cheshire-Worcester Basins account for many of the contrasts between the upland karsts of the Pennines and the lowland karsts of coastal areas.     

Experimental petrology of alkalic lavas: constraints on cotectics of multiple saturation in natural basic liquids

Experimental study of natural alkalic lava compositions at low pressures (pO₂QFM) reveals that crystallization of primitive lavas often occurs in the sequence olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, nepheline without obvious reaction relation. Pseudoternary liquidus projections of multiply saturated liquids coexisting with plagioclase (±olivine±clinopyroxene±nepheline) have been prepared to facilitate graphical analysis of the evolution of lava compositions during hypabyssal cooling. Use of (TiAl₂)(MgSi₂)_–1 and Fe³⁺ (Al)_–1 exchange components is a key aspect of the projection procedure which is succesful in reducing a wide range of compositions to a systematic graphical representation. These projections, and the experiments on which they are based, show that low pressure fractionation plays a significant role in the petrogenesis of many alkalic lava suites from both continental and oceanic settings. However, the role of polybaric fractionation is more evident in the major element chemistry of these lava suites than in many tholeiitic suites of comparable extent. For example, the lavas of Karisimbi, East Africa, show a range of compositions reflecting a polybaric petrogenesis from primitive picrites at 1360° C/18 kb and leading to advanced low pressure differentiates. Evolved leucite-bearing potassic members of this and other suites may be treated in a nepheline-diopside-kspar (+olivine+leucite) projection. Compositional curvature on the plagioclase+clinopyroxene+olivine+leucite cotectic offers a mechanism to explain resorption of plagioclase in alkalic groundmass assemblages and the incompatibility of albite and leucite. This projection is useful for evaluating the extent of assimilation of the alkalic portions of crustal granulites. Assimilation appears to have played some role in the advanced differentiates from Karisimbi.